Back Boston Celtics in a classic NBA odds letdown game for Mavericks
By Phil Watson
The Dallas Mavericks stunned the Bucks in their 1st game without Luka Doncic, so NBA odds say they are due for a letdown. Take the Boston Celtics in Big D.
On Monday night, the Dallas Mavericks ended the 18-game winning streak of the Milwaukee Bucks with a big 120-116 victory in Cream City. It was Dallas’ first game without injured Luka Doncic and sets the Mavericks up for a classic NBA odds letdown game Wednesday when they host the Boston Celtics.
According to point-spread information courtesy of The Action Network, the Celtics are favored in this matchup by 1½ points on the road. Given that Boston beat Dallas — with Doncic — by 10 on Nov. 11, it’s certainly not a stretch at all to take the Celtics for the win and the cover in this one.
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Boston has been a decent road bet at 7-5-1 against the spread, while the Mavericks have been great on the road, but not so much with the great at home, going just 6-8 ATS this season. Throw in that the Celtics are 8-4 ATS over their last 12 games and the Mavs are 2-3 ATS in their last five games at American Airlines Center and it starts to look like backing Boston is the play.
Yes, Kristaps Porzingis stepped up with 26 points and 12 rebounds at Milwaukee on Monday, but he’s barely shooting 40 percent overall this season and his 4-for-8 night from 3-point range against the Bucks got his season percentage from deep up to only 33.6 percent. He is still feeling his way back after missing 18 months recovering from a torn ACL.
Boston is without its best defensive presence in Marcus Smart, who is still dealing with an eye infection, but still have enough to get the win in Dallas.
Boston Celtics (minus 1½) at Dallas Mavericks
TV: NBC Sports Boston, ESPN
Tickets: American Airlines Center, 9:30 p.m. Eastern (8:30 p.m. local)
Records: Boston 17-7 (14-8-2 ATS, 7-5-1 road ATS), Dallas 18-8 (16-10 ATS, 6-8 home ATS)
Availability report (all availability information as of 8:30 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday)
Boston: OUT–Carsen Edwards (G League), Vincent Poirier (right pinkie fracture), Marcus Smart (left eye infection), Tremont Waters (two-way, G League), Robert Williams (left hip, bone edema).
Dallas: OUT–Antonius Cleveland (two-way, G League), Luka Doncic (right ankle sprain), Josh Reaves (two-way, G League), Isaiah Roby (G League).
As for the rest of Wednesday’s nine-game NBA schedule:
Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers (minus 3)
TV: Fox Sports Southeast-Charlotte, Fox Sports Ohio
Tickets: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, 7 p.m. Eastern
Records: Charlotte 13-17 (15-14-1 ATS, 7-7-1 road ATS), Cleveland 6-21 (10-15-2 ATS, 5-7-1 home ATS)
Availability report
Charlotte: Not required to submit report until 1 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. In their 110-102 win at home over the Kings on Tuesday, the Hornets were without Nicolas Batum (left hand discomfort), Robert Franks (two-way, G League), Jalen McDaniels (G League), Kobi Simmons (two-way, G League) and PJ Washington (right fifth finger fracture).
Cleveland: OUT–Tyler Cook (two-way, G League), Dean Wade (two-way, G League), Dylan Windler (stress reaction, left lower leg); QUESTIONABLE–Kevin Porter Jr. (left shoulder soreness).
Notable: It’s rare for the Cleveland Cavaliers to be a favorite, but they’re in that position Wednesday as the catch the Charlotte Hornets coming in on a SEGABABA. But the Hornets are 4-1 ATS over their last five games (having won four of five straight up as well) and is 2-2 ATS in their last four on the road.
Cleveland is 3-7 ATS over its last 10 games and 4-13 ATS over the last 17, so they’ve been scuffling for awhile now. It will be the first meeting of the season between the Charlotte and the Cavs, with the Hornets winning two of the last three meetings and Cleveland covering in two of those three games.
Toronto Raptors (minus 5) at Detroit Pistons
TV: TSN1, TSN3, TSN4, RDS2 (French), Fox Sports Detroit
Tickets: Little Caesars Arena, 7 p.m. Eastern
Records: Toronto 18-8 (14-11 ATS, 5-7 road ATS), Detroit 11-16 (11-15-1 ATS, 7-7 home ATS)
Availability report
Toronto: OUT–Oshae Brissett (two-way, G League), Dewan Hernandez (G League), Stanley Johnson (stress reaction, left groin), Shamorie Ponds (two-way, G League), Matt Thomas (left middle finger fracture); DOUBTFUL–Fred VanVleet (right knee contusion).
Detroit: OUT–Jordan Bone (two-way, G League), Sekou Doumbouya (G League), Reggie Jackson (stress reaction, left lumbar spine), Louis King (two-way, G League), Khyri Thomas (right foot surgery); QUESTIONABLE–Andre Drummond (left eye inflammation), Blake Griffin (left knee soreness).
Notable: While the Toronto Raptors have won 10 of their last 14 games SU, they are just 2-5 ATS over their last seven and have covered just twice in their last six meetings with Wednesday’s opponent, the Detroit Pistons. Detroit is 5-5 ATS over its last 10 games, but only 2-4 ATS at home over that span, including Monday’s ugly loss to the Wizards.
The last time these teams met was in Toronto on Oct. 30, with the Raptors covering as 9½-point favorites with a 125-113 win at Scotiabank Arena. The Pistons did not have Andre Drummond or Blake Griffin against Washington on Monday and both come into this one listed as questionable. Detroit has won and covered two of their last three meetings with Toronto.
Chicago Bulls (minus 1) at Washington Wizards
TV: NBC Sports Chicago, NBC Sports Washington
Tickets: Capital One Arena, 7 p.m. Eastern
Records: Chicago 10-19 (15-14 ATS, 7-6 road ATS), Washington 8-17 (13-11-1 ATS, 5-5 home ATS)
Availability report
Chicago: OUT–Cristiano Felicio (G League), Adam Mokoka (two-way, G League), Otto Porter (left foot fracture), Max Strus (two-way, G League); DOUBTFUL–Chandler Hutchison (right shoulder soreness); PROBABLE–Ryan Arcidiacono (right elbow discomfort), Wendell Carter Jr. (left abdomen maintenance/tailbone contusion), Zach LaVine (right shin contusion/illness).
Washington: OUT–Thomas Bryant (stress reaction, right foot), Chris Chiozza (personal), Rui Hachimura (groin), Jordan McRae (right ring finger surgery), C.J. Miles (left wrist surgery), Moritz Wagner (sprained left ankle), John Wall (left Achilles rehab).
Notable: The ranks of the walking wounded grew for the Washington Wizards in their win at Detroit Monday, as rookie forward Rui Hachimura — who had started every game so far — will miss at least the next five games after taking an accidental kick to the groin from teammate Isaac Bonga (yes, the jokes write themselves here, but let’s just move on).
The Chicago Bulls are 5-1 ATS over their last six games, even as they blew a 26-point lead in Monday’s 109-106 loss at Oklahoma City (almost the same as a kick to the groin). The Wizards are only 4-8 ATS over their last 12 games. Entering their first meeting of the season with Washington, the Bulls have won and covered in two of the teams’ last three matchups.
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers (minus 7)
TV: Fox Sports Sun, NBC Sports Philadelphia, ESPN
Tickets: Wells Fargo Center, 7 p.m. Eastern
Records: Miami 19-8 (17-9-1 ATS, 7-7-1 road ATS), Philadelphia 20-8 (13-14-1 ATS, 7-6-1 home ATS)
Availability report
Miami: OUT–Goran Dragic (right groin strain), James Johnson (personal), Daryl Macon (two-way, G League), KZ Okpala (G League), Dion Waiters (team suspension), Justise Winslow (lower back strain).
Philadelphia: OUT–Jonah Bolden (G League), Shake Milton (G League), Marial Shayok (two-way, G League), Zhaire Smith (G League).
Notable: Both teams are coming in off surprising losses. The Miami Heat were ambushed at Memphis Monday night 118-111, while the Philadelphia 76ers — minus an under-the-weather Joel Embiid — were clocked at Brooklyn Sunday, 109-89. Miami is 5-5 ATS over its last 10, 2-3 ATS on the road; the 76ers are 4-6 ATS over their last 10, 3-3 ATS at home.
The first time these two teams met in Philadelphia back on Nov. 23, the 76ers ran roughshod on the Heat in a 113-86 victory as 5½-point favorites, but Miami has gotten the cover in two of the last three meetings with Philadelphia (which is 2-1 SU in those games). The 76ers are 14-0 SU at home so far this season, but have only covered in half of those games.
New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves (minus 8½)
TV: Fox Sports New Orleans, Fox Sports North
Tickets: Target Center, 8 p.m. Eastern (7 p.m. local)
Records: New Orleans 6-22 (9-17-1 ATS, 3-8-1 road ATS), Minnesota 10-15 (9-15-1 ATS, 2-9-1 home ATS)
Availability report
New Orleans: Not required to submit report until 2 p.m. Eastern. In their 108-101 overtime loss at home to the Nets on Tuesday, the Pelicans did not have Zylan Cheatham (two-way, G League), Josh Gray (two-way, G League), Darius Miller (right Achilles surgery), J.J. Redick (left groin soreness) or Zion Williamson (right knee scope).
Minnesota: OUT–Jake Layman (left toe sprain), Kelan Martin (two-way, G League), Jordan McLaughlin (two-way, G League), Jaylen Nowell (G League), Naz Reid (G League); QUESTIONABLE–Karl-Anthony Towns (left knee sprain).
Notable: So much to unpack in this one. The New Orleans Pelicans have lost a franchise-record 13 straight games SU and are going on the road for a SEGABABA after an overtime loss at home. But the Minnesota Timberwolves have covered just twice in 12 home games this season, have lost seven in a row SU and could be without their best player in Karl-Anthony Towns.
The Pelicans are 1-9 ATS over their last 10 games (1-3 ATS on the road), while the Wolves are 2-8 ATS over their last 10 (0-4 ATS at home). The teams have not played yet this season, but Minnesota has covered in two of the previous three meetings, even as New Orleans has gone 2-1 SU. The Timberwolves have failed to cover in seven consecutive games at home.
Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder (minus 6½)
TV: Fox Sports Southeast-Memphis, Fox Sports Oklahoma
Tickets: Chesapeake Energy Arena, 8 p.m. Eastern (7 p.m. local)
Records: Memphis 10-17 (12-15 ATS, 5-6 road ATS), Oklahoma City 12-14 (16-10 ATS, 8-5 home ATS)
Availability report
Memphis: OUT–Andre Iguodala (not with team), Josh Jackson (G League), John Konchar (two-way, G League), Yuta Watanabe (G League); QUESTIONABLE–Grayson Allen (right ankle soreness).
Oklahoma City: OUT–Deonte Burton (G League), Hamidou Diallo (right elbow hyperextension sprain), Kevin Hervey (two-way, G League), Justin Patton (G League), Andre Roberson (left knee injury recovery).
Notable: Both teams are coming in off big wins. The Memphis Grizzlies beat the Heat 118-111 in Memphis Monday night, while the Oklahoma City Thunder came back from 26 down to beat the Chicago Bulls Monday, 109-106, missing the cover at minus 5½. The Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, but Oklahoma City is 10-5 ATS over its last 15 contests.
This is the first time Memphis and the Thunder will play this season. The Grizzlies have covered in two of the previous three meetings, even though Oklahoma City has won two of the three SU. Both teams are playing well SU — Memphis has won four of its last five and the Thunder have won six of nine.
Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets (minus 9½)
TV: Fox Sports Florida, Altitude Sports
Tickets: Pepsi Center, 9 p.m. Eastern (7 p.m. local)
Records: Orlando 12-15 (11-15-1 ATS, 7-6 road ATS), Denver 17-8 (12-12-1 ATS, 7-7 home ATS)
Availability report
Orlando: Not required to submit until 3 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. In their 109-102 loss at Utah Tuesday night, the Magic did not have Al-Farouq Aminu (right knee, meniscus tear), B.J. Johnson (two-way, G League) and Josh Magette (two-way, G League).
Denver: OUT–Bol Bol (left foot injury management); QUESTIONABLE–Paul Millsap (right quadriceps strain).
Notable: The Orlando Magic come in having gone 5-5 ATS and SU over their last 10 games and are on a road-road SEGABABA. The Denver Nuggets have had an identical 5-5 record ATS and SU over their last 10 games, winning but not covering Sunday against the Knicks in their last game. Denver and Orlando pushed in their first meeting this season, with the Nuggets winning 91-87.
The Magic are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games against Denver, but are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. The Nuggets are 8-1 SU in their last nine at home and have covered in three of their last five games at Pepsi Center. The oddball stat of the day: Denver has covered four of its last six Wednesday games.
Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers (minus 9½)
TV: NBC Sports Bay Area, NBC Sports Northwest
Tickets: Moda Center, 10 p.m. Eastern (7 p.m. local)
Records: Golden State 5-23 (12-15-1 ATS, 8-8 road ATS), Portland 11-16 (11-16 ATS, 4-7 home ATS)
Availability report
Golden State: OUT–Ky Bowman (two-way, G League), Stephen Curry (left hand fracture), Alen Smailagic (G League), Klay Thompson (left ACL rehabilitation); QUESTIONABLE–Eric Paschall (left hip soreness).
Portland: OUT–Zach Collins (left shoulder dislocation), Rodney Hood (left Achilles’ tendon rupture), Jusuf Nurkic (left leg fracture); QUESTIONABLE–Mario Hezonja (back spasms); PROBABLE–Nassir Little (back spasms).
Notable: The Golden State Warriors enter play on Wednesday with eight losses SU in their last nine games and having gone just 2-5 ATS over their last seven. The Portland Trail Blazers have only one cover in their last five games, going 2-3 SU over that span. The Warriors are 3-3 ATS in their last six on the road, Portland is 3-3 ATS in its last six at Moda Center.
It was Golden State that got the win in the first meeting between the teams, getting a 127-118 win in San Francisco as 12-point home dogs. The Warriors are 2-0-1 ATS in their last three against the Blazers, winning all three games SU. But two of those games are the Warrior dynasty, rather than the current iteration which more closely resembles the Santa Cruz Warriors.