Bet on the Bucks to make it 18 straight; NBA odds do not favor Cavaliers
By Phil Watson
The Cavaliers are coming off a rare victory and the Bucks are on a back-to-back. But the NBA odds still say take the Bucks and lay the 12 points.
UPDATED as of 4:15 p.m. Eastern. Changes denoted in bold italics throughout.
At first glance, the NBA odds don’t really point to a clear choice among the eight games on the NBA’s Saturday slate. Having never been a fan of double-digit point spreads, the tendency is to disregard most of those matchups. Saturday, however, is an exception.
The Milwaukee Bucks, winners of 17 games in a row, are on the back end of a road-home SEGABABA Saturday when they host the Cleveland Cavaliers and even though the Bucks are laying 12 points according to information provided courtesy of The Action Network and Cleveland is rested and coming off a win, there are a lot of reasons to like Milwaukee here.
More from Hoops Habit
- 7 Players the Miami Heat might replace Herro with by the trade deadline
- Meet Cooper Flagg: The best American prospect since LeBron James
- Are the Miami Heat laying the groundwork for their next super team?
- Sophomore Jump: 5 second-year NBA players bound to breakout
- NBA Trades: The Lakers bolster their frontcourt in this deal with the Pacers
The Bucks are 12-1 at home this season, going 7-6 against the spread — spreads which have been growing larger at much the same pace as their winning streak. The Cavaliers snapped an eight-game losing streak against the Spurs Thursday, but they are 0-2 against Milwaukee this season, including a 129-112 loss as 15½-point road dogs the first time they came to Fiserv Forum.
That game was played on Oct. 28, while Cleveland was in the midst of a respectable 4-5 start. They are 2-14 since and are just 4-11 ATS over their last 15 games. The Bucks have covered in six of their last seven games and have won 12 in a row at home straight up after losing their home opener in overtime to the Heat on Oct. 26.
Milwaukee just did get the cover in Memphis on Friday night, winning 127-114 as 12½-point road favorites in one of those finishes that tested the Old Spice if you had taken the Bucks and laid the points.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks (minus 12)
Line had been Milwaukee (minus 13½)
TV: Fox Sports Ohio, Fox Sports Wisconsin
Tickets: Fiserv Forum, 8:30 p.m. Eastern (7:30 p.m. local)
Records: Cleveland 6-19 (10-13-2 ATS, 5-6-1 road ATS), Milwaukee 23-3 (14-12 ATS, 7-6 home ATS)
Availability report (1:30 p.m. Saturday)
Cleveland: OUT–Tyler Cook (two-way, G League), Dean Wade (two-way, G League), Dylan Windler (stress reaction, left lower leg).
Milwaukee: OUT–Dragan Bender (right ankle sprain), Eric Bledsoe (right shin contusion), Cameron Reynolds (two-way, G League); QUESTIONABLE–Giannis Antetokounmpo (right quad tendon soreness); AVAILABLE–Frank Mason (two-way, G League).
As for the rest of the Saturday schedule in the NBA:
San Antonio Spurs (minus 1½) vs. Phoenix Suns at Mexico City
Line has flipped from Phoenix Suns (minus 2½) with change in status for Devin Booker.
TV: Fox Sports Southwest-San Antonio, Fox Sports Arizona, NBA TV
Tickets: Arena Ciudad de Mexico, 5 p.m. Eastern (4 p.m. local)
Records: San Antonio 9-15 (6-18 ATS, 3-7 road ATS), Phoenix 11-13 (14-10 ATS, 7-7 home ATS, 7-3 road ATS)
Availability report (1:30 p.m. Saturday)
San Antonio: OUT–Drew Eubanks (two-way, G League), Keldon Johnson (G League), Luka Samanic (G League), Quinndary Weatherspoon (two-way, G League).
Phoenix: OUT–Deandre Ayton (league suspension), Jared Harper (two-way, G League), Jalen Lecque (G League); QUESTIONABLE–Devin Booker (right forearm contusion); PROBABLE–Aron Baynes (left calf strain), Cameron Johnson (left hip soreness), Dario Saric (low back soreness).
Note: Booker was downgraded to OUT shortly after the above report was submitted.
Notable: Given that the San Antonio Spurs have the worst ATS record in the NBA so far this season, it was tempting to take the Phoenix Suns, but Devin Booker missing this game is a concern. This is the second of two regular-season games in Mexico, in conjunction with an announcement Thursday the G League will expand to Mexico City next season.
Both teams enter having won four of their last 10 games, but the Suns are 5-5 ATS over that span, while the Spurs are 3-7 and have covered just four times in their last 16 games. Phoenix has perked up of late, going 4-2 ATS in its last six games and while they have just one cover in their last six home games, this one isn’t really “at home.”
Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors (minus 7)
Line had been Toronto Raptors (minus 7½)
TV: YES Network, TSN1, TSN4, NBA TV
Tickets: Scotiabank Arena, 7:30 p.m. Eastern
Records: Brooklyn 13-11 (13-11 ATS, 6-6 road ATS), Toronto 16-8 (12-11 ATS, 7-4 home ATS)
Availability report (1:30 p.m. Saturday)
Brooklyn: OUT–Wilson Chandler (league suspension), Nicolas Claxton (left hamstring soreness), Kevin Durant (right Achilles rehab), Kyrie Irving (right shoulder impingement), Caris LeVert (right thumb surgery).
Toronto: OUT–Stanley Johnson (stress reaction, left groin), Matt Thomas (left middle finger fracture); DOUBTFUL–Fred VanVleet (right knee contusion).
Notable: The Toronto Raptors are scuffling right now, winning just one of their last five games outright and failing to cover in any of those five contests. The Brooklyn Nets come off stubbing their toe at home against the Hornets on Wednesday, when they blew a 20-point lead in a 113-108 loss. The Nets are 5-1 ATS over their last six games.
Buuuuuuut … Brooklyn has won once in its last 16 matchups with the Raptors and has gone 4-6 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Toronto. That one win was a big one for the Nets, a 106-105 OT victory on Dec. 7, 2018, that sparked a seven-game winning streak that turned their season around. The Raptors have run off eight straight wins at home against Brooklyn.
LA Clippers (minus 3½) at Chicago Bulls
Line had been LA Clippers (minus 6½)
TV: Fox Sports Prime Ticket, NBC Sports Chicago
Tickets: United Center, 8 p.m. Eastern (7 p.m. local)
Records: LA 20-7 (15-11 ATS, 6-7 road ATS), Chicago 9-18 (13-14 ATS, 7-8 home ATS)
Availability report (1:30 p.m. Saturday)
LA: Not submitted. In Friday’s 124-117 win at Minnesota, the Clippers were without Patrick Beverley (concussion), Amir Coffey (two-way, G League), JaMychal Green (tailbone contusion), Landry Shamet (high left ankle sprain) and Lou Williams (sore right calf). With this being a SEGABABA, Kawhi Leonard is likely to sit after playing Friday night.
Chicago: Not submitted. In Friday;’s 83-73 loss to the Hornets, the Bulls did not have Cristiano Felicio (right wrist, fracture), Chandler Hutchison (right shoulder sprain), Adam Mokoka (two-way, G League), Otto Porter (left foot fracture) or Max Strus (two-way, G League).
Notable: The LA Clippers ride into Chicago with a 6-1 ATS record over their last seven games, including Friday’s game at Minnesota. Even with their loss as a home favorite on Friday, the Chicago Bulls are still 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, even as they have lost four of their last five straight up.
LA has won 13 of its last 15 straight up and has covered in four of its last five road games. This is the first of the teams’ two meetings this season, with the Clippers winning the last seven times they’ve played Chicago. Kawhi Leonard is almost certain to rest Saturday and Paul George could also be held out against the Bulls. The two combined for 88 points at Minnesota on Friday.
Washington Wizards at Memphis Grizzlies (minus 1)
TV: NBC Sports Washington+, Fox Sports Southeast-Memphis
Tickets: FedExForum, 8 p.m. Eastern (7 p.m. local)
Records: Washington 7-16 (12-10-1 ATS, 7-5-1 road ATS), Memphis 8-17 (10-15 ATS, 5-9 home ATS)
Availability report (1:30 p.m. Saturday)
Washington: OUT–Thomas Bryant (stress reaction, right foot), Jordan McRae (right ring finger surgery), Moritz Wagner (sprained left ankle), John Wall (left Achilles rehab); QUESTIONABLE–Isaiah Thomas (left calf strain).
Memphis: OUT–Grayson Allen (right ankle soreness), Andre Iguodala (not with team), Josh Jackson (G League), John Konchar (two-way, G League); QUESTIONABLE–Jae Crowder (left ankle soreness).
In one of those movable object vs. resistible force matchups, the Washington Wizards enter having gone 2-5 ATS over their last seven games. As if to say, “Hold our beer,” the Memphis Grizzlies are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
But the Wizards have not played since Tuesday, while Memphis is on a home-home SEGABABA, with Washington having a better ATS record on the road (7-5-1) than at home (5-5). The Grizzlies trend the opposite direction; just 5-9 ATS at home, but 5-6 on the road. Much of Memphis’ fate will rest on the status of rookie point guard Ja Morant, who is available Saturday.
Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks (minus 8)
Line had been Dallas Mavericks (minus 7)
TV: Fox Sports Sun, Fox Sports Southwest-Dallas
Tickets: American Airlines Center, 8:30 p.m. Eastern (7:30 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Miami 18-7 (16-8-1 ATS, 6-6-1 road ATS), Dallas 17-7 (15-9 ATS, 6-7 home ATS)
Availability report (1:30 p.m. Saturday)
Miami: Not submitted. In Friday’s 113-110 loss to the Lakers, the Heat did not have Goran Dragic (right groin strain), KZ Okpala (G League), Dion Waiters (team suspension) or Justise Winslow (lower back strain).
Dallas: OUT–Antonius Cleveland (two-way, G League), Josh Reaves (two-way, G League), Isaiah Roby (G League); QUESTIONABLE–Delon Wright (right adductor strain).
Notable: The Miami Heat are on a SEGABABA after losing to, but covering against, the Lakers are home. While the Heat are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games, they are 5-5 ATS over that span. The Dallas Mavericks last played Thursday and are 8-2 both SU and ATS over their last 10, including six covers in their last seven games.
Dallas is also 6-2 ATS in its last eight games at home, while the Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five road contests. Miami is a bit thin at the point guard spot of late, with both Goran Dragic and Justise Winslow dealing with injuries and has been relying on undrafted rookie Kendrick Nunn to run the offense. He’s averaged 4.7 assists per game over his last six starts at the point.
Detroit Pistons at Houston Rockets (minus 6½)
Line had been Houston Rockets (minus 8½)
TV: Fox Sports Detroit+, AT&T SportsNet-Southwest
Tickets: Toyota Center, 9 p.m. Eastern (8 p.m. local)
Records: Detroit 10-15 (10-14-1 ATS, 3-8-1 road ATS), Houston 17-8 (12-13 ATS, 6-6 home ATS)
Availability report (1:30 p.m. Saturday)
Detroit: OUT–Jordan Bone (two-way, G League), Sekou Doumbouya (G League), Reggie Jackson (stress reaction, left lumbar spine), Louis King (two-way, G League), Khyri Thomas (right foot surgery); QUESTIONABLE–Andre Drummond (left eye inflammation), Luke Kennard (bilateral knee soreness).
Houston: OUT–Michael Frazier (two-way, G League), Eric Gordon (right knee arthroscopy), Gerald Green (left cuneiform fracture), Nene (left adductor strain), Russell Westbrook (rest); QUESTIONABLE–Tyson Chandler (illness).
Notable: As far as the point spreads go, the Detroit Pistons and Houston Rockets are opposites over their last six games, respectively, with the Pistons going 4-2 ATS and Houston covering just twice in that span. This will be the first time these teams have played in more than a year — Nov. 23, 2018, was their last matchup — so there’s some unfamiliarity.
While the Rockets have won two of the last three matchups with Detroit, the Pistons are 3-0 ATS in those games and have covered five straight times against Houston. Given how James Harden has played in his last two games — 109 points and just 11 free throw attempts over that span — one almost wonders how long he’s going to show he can score without free throws by the dozen.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets (minus 6½)
Line had been Denver Nuggets (minus 7)
TV: Fox Sports Oklahoma, Altitude Sports
Tickets: Pepsi Center, 9 p.m. Eastern (7 p.m. local)
Records: Oklahoma City 11-13 (16-8 ATS, 8-4 road ATS), Denver 15-8 (11-11-1 ATS, 6-6 home ATS)
Availability report (8:30 p.m. Friday)
Oklahoma City: OUT–Deonte Burton (G League), Hamidou Diallo (right elbow hyperextension sprain), Terrance Ferguson (right hip soreness), Kevin Hervey (two-way, G League), Justin Patton (G League), Andre Roberson (left knee injury recovery).
Denver: OUT–Bol Bol (two-way, G League); QUESTIONABLE–Paul Millsap (right quadriceps strain).
Notable: The Oklahoma City Thunder are in an unexpected position early during what looked like Year 1 of a rebuild, owners of the best ATS record in the NBA at 16-8, including covers in six of their last seven games, during which they’ve gone 5-2 SU. The Denver Nuggets have lost five of their last seven SU and are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
This is the first meeting this season between these Northwest Division rivals, with Denver taking eight of the last 10 matchups overall and covering nine times in those 10 games — including the last nine in a row. The Thunder are 4-2 ATS in their last six games on the road, with Denver going 3-2 ATS in its last five home games.