What to make of the Kyrie Irving-less Brooklyn Nets

The Brooklyn Nets have played fairly well without Kyrie Irving recently. How does the team differ with him off the floor?

With an overall record of 10-10, the Brooklyn Nets are 6-3 in the nine games Kyrie Irving has missed with a shoulder impingement. It’s not as if the team’s schedule in this stretch has gotten significantly easier either.

n the first 11 games with Irving, Brooklyn was favored in six of those 11 and went 2-4 in those games. It was 2-3 as an underdog and started the season 4-7 overall.

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In the most recent nine games without Irving, the Nets have been favored in four of nine games, going 3-1 as the favorite. With a 3-2 record as an underdog in this stretch as well, the team got back to .500.

Over this Irving-less stretch, Brooklyn is 13th in net rating per NBA.com, ranking 20th offensively and ninth defensively. In comparison, it was 20th overall in the first nine games with Irving, ranking 11th in offense and 25th in defense.

(*Net rating reflects how many points a team scores or allows per 100 possessions. A positive net rating reflects a team outscoring the opposition per 100 possessions, while a negative rating reflects the opposite. It is better to have a high offensive rating number and a low defensive number).

It likely won’t come as a surprise to Nets fans that the team has been better offensively with Irving on the court but better defensively with him off the court. The team’s net rating with Irving on the court this season is -1.69 (112.80 offensively, 114.48 defensively). Off the court, this improves slightly to -1.08 (106.37 offensively, 107.45 defensively).

Spencer Dinwiddie

How have the Nets had success without Irving? A lot of the credit should go to his “replacement” Spencer Dinwiddie. While Irving undeniably raises the team’s ceiling, there’s an argument to be made Dinwiddie gives the team a better chance to win on certain nights.

In the last nine games, Dinwiddie has averaged 25.0 points and 7.3 assists while shooting 35.5 percent from long range, a significant statistical boost from his 17.1 points and 4.6 assists on 29.5 percent shooting in the first 11 games.

Over the course of the entire season, the Nets have been better with Dinwiddie on the floor compared to Irving (per pbpstats). In 444 minutes with Dinwiddie on the floor and Irving off, Brooklyn has a 2.00 net rating (111.08 offensively, 109.07 defensively).

In 234 minutes with Irving on the floor and Dinwiddie off, Brooklyn has a -6.65 net rating (106.60 offensively, 113.26 defensively). In this relatively small sample size, the Nets have been better both offensively AND defensively with Dinwiddie on the court. His offensive abilities are well known, but he’s not regarded as being particularly strong defensively.

Based on this data at least, however, Dinwiddie seems to have been better than Irving on this end of the floor.

(*It should be noted that net rating and on/off court data are imperfect when used to evaluate the contributions of individual players, on both ends of the floor. These imperfections can be magnified when the sample size isn’t large enough. If taken with a grain of salt, however, this data can be quite useful, and it is often referenced by respected basketball minds as a result).

Does the above data mean the Nets would be better off playing Dinwiddie over Irving even when the latter returns from injury? Not necessarily. But regardless of the answer, Irving will undoubtedly play heavy minutes when healthy, so the “Irving vs. Dinwiddie” debate is in a sense a waste of time.

With Dinwiddie’s solid play, however, it’s worth considering whether the two should share the court more together.

Should Irving and Dinwiddie play together?

In the 138 minutes the two have shared the court this season, Brooklyn has an impressive 7.13 net rating (123.79 offensively, 116.67 defensively). Although a small sample size, this net rating would rank fifth-best among all NBA teams.

The offensive mark would rank first by a large margin (Dallas Mavericks currently 1st at 116.0), while the defense would rank dead last in the NBA behind the Washington Wizards (115.7).

It’s unlikely the “amazing offense, terrible defense” approach is the route coach Kenny Atkinson will want to go, but the strong net rating suggests this lineup deserves more opportunities once Irving returns.

A lineup of Irving-Dinwiddie-Joe Harris–Taurean Prince–Jarrett Allen could be interesting if the two guards are willing to share ball-handling responsibilities. Both Irving and Dinwiddie are capable of playing off the ball due to their shooting abilities, so this shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

As noted, however, the defense could pose some problems. Perhaps swapping a capable defender like Garrett Temple in for Harris or Prince could be a solution.

Conclusion

Overall, it’s encouraging that the Nets have stayed afloat without Kyrie Irving. While his return will likely bring a boost to the offense, it’s uncertain how much this will offset the potential defensive drop-off. Brooklyn is almost surely a better team with Irving running the show, but it’s unclear whether he’ll be able to elevate this team much above its current .500 status.

It’s possible no lineup combination will significantly move the needle for Kenny Atkinson’s squad, but perhaps the Irving-Dinwiddie lineup should see more minutes. The lineup’s strong early results might not prove sustainable, but if the team wants to raise its ceiling above a first-round playoff exit, then it’s at least worth a shot.