Bogdan Bogdanovic’s gamble with Sacramento Kings paying early dividends

A recent stretch of impressive outings for the Sacramento Kings is making Bogdan Bogdanovic’s offseason gamble look like a genius play.

In looking to further lock in their core as the 2019-20 season neared, the Sacramento Kings offered extension-eligible Bogdan Bogdanovic a four-year, $50 million extension.

The $12.5 million annual salary seemed reasonable for Bogdanovic, who had averaged 14.1 points per game the previous season, but didn’t speak of the star qualities of his contemporaries that earned maximum extensions.

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Nevertheless, Bogdanovic rejected Sacramento’s offer, making him the latest in a long line of NBA players to bet on their talents making up the difference of their desired amount.

The stories of these gambles land on both ends of the spectrum. Jimmy Butler took the risk in 2014 as a member of the Chicago Bulls and more than doubled the amount of the contract — with an extra year tacked on — after making the first of four All-Star appearances.

Nerlens Noel bet on himself after he was unsatisfied with a $70 million offer from the Dallas Mavericks in the summer of 2017 and has been playing on one-year deals ever since.

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Bogdanovic wasn’t even starting in Sacramento, having started just 17 games last year behind Buddy Hield and Harrison Barnes on the wing. How he’d put up the numbers to warrant more than $50 million was beyond anyone’s idea, but the early returns have helped turned that fantasy into a potential reality.

His overall numbers have remained almost identical to the previous season — aside from a drastic increase in his efficiency beyond the arc — but the advanced stats paint a different, more encouraging picture.

Bogdanovic’s Player Efficiency Rating and True Shooting Percentage are both up a sizable amount compared to his sophomore campaign and he’s blown his previous best marks for win shares per-48 minutes and offensive box plus/minus.

His usage rate hasn’t changed much compared to 2018-19, but he’s dishing the ball far more often, with an assist percentage that’s increased to 27.8, one of only five shooting guards with that high a figure.

There’s no telling the value those advanced numbers will have at the negotiating table come July, but Bogdanovic has been producing in the more traditional sense as of late too.

Over his last six games, Bogdanovic is averaging 21.6 points, 6.7 assists and 2.3 steals per game. He’s canning 53.0 percent of his looks during this time as well as a scorching 56.5 percent of his 7.7 3-point attempts.

Betting on yourself is a lot like home-court advantage in the playoffs. It takes all season long to lock it down, but just a single blunder to lose it. Injuries happen at the most unlikely of times, a reality Bogdanovic will have to live with until season’s end.

Yes, he’s 27 years old, a bit high for a third-year player. He’s also a talented wing who hasn’t really gotten the chance to assert his dominance until the last couple of weeks in part due to the injuries suffered by De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III.

In a free-agent class with little star power and several talent-starved teams with money to spend, the circumstances might be perfect for Bogdanovic to land a contract closer to what he desires, even if it means leaving Sacramento to get it.

With an extension already given out to Hield and the pending ones for Bagley and Fox, the Kings might not be able to keep Bogdanovic around.

The longer he maintains this new level of play, the likelier that scenario becomes, and the better a risky offseason move continues to look.