Aron Baynes having a surprise breakout for Phoenix Suns

Only one player has been named NBA Most Improved Player after turning 30. But Aron Baynes of the Phoenix Suns may change that with his breakout this year.

When it comes to the NBA’s Most Improved Player honor, it’s generally assumed it is an award for the young guys in the Association, relatively inexperienced players who make a sudden leap. But Aron Baynes of the Phoenix Suns is defying that model in the early part of the 2019-20 season.

Of the 34 previous recipients of the award — first handed out after the 1985-86 season — 26 of them won it in their age-25 season or younger. Only one player was named MIP after turning 30 years old. That was Darrell Armstrong of the Orlando Magic in the 1998-99 lockout season.

The former undrafted free agent from Division II Fayetteville State made a giant leap that season, also being named Sixth Man of the Year, when he jumped his scoring average from 9.2 to 13.8 points per game, while also reaching career-highs in assists (6.7 per game) and steals (2.2 per game).

Aron Baynes looks at those increases and just scoffs.

In terms of raw numbers, what Baynes has done through the first 12 games of the season for the Suns is remarkable.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/19/2019.

Yes, Baynes is getting nearly eight more minutes per game, so you’d expect a spike in his overall statistical averages. But he’s also scoring nearly nine points more per game.

Because the Most Improved Player award has often been more of a “Guy Got Tons More Playing Time, So His Numbers Went Up” award, looking at the per-36 rates can often tell a more complete story about a player’s year-over-year improvement. In Baynes’ case, it’s startling:

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/19/2019.

While Baynes’ per-36 rebounding and blocked shot numbers have dipped, everything else is markedly higher, particularly his shooting from 3-point range.  Baynes began to experiment with the 3 ball during the 2017-18 season with the Boston Celtics, when he attempted 21 after taking just seven over the first five seasons of his career.

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Baynes made only three of those 21 3-point attempts, so it was a work in progress. Last season, he improved to 34.4 percent on 61 attempts (2.7 per game).

For the Suns, he’s becoming just the latest big man to become a big threat from outside the arc, averaging 44.2 percent on 6.5 attempts per game thus far.

Like Armstrong, Baynes didn’t make his NBA debut until his age-26 season. The Australian was undrafted in 2009 after a solid, but unspectacular four-year run at Washington State University. He spent the next four seasons in Europe, playing one campaign each in Lithuania, Germany, Greece and Slovenia.

Until he got his break in early 2013. In January of that year, Baynes signed with the San Antonio Spurs, shuffling back-and-forth between the parent club and San Antonio’s Austin-based affiliate in what was then known as the D-League.

Baynes played nine minutes or so per game for the NBA champion Spurs in 2013-14 and signed with the Detroit Pistons in the summer of 2015. After playing out his two-year deal, Baynes inked one-year deal with Boston , re-signing with the Celtics for two years and $10.65 million in July 2018.

On draft night last June, however, the Celtics and Suns agreed to a trade and when the moratorium was lifted on July 6, Baynes was shipped to Phoenix along with the rights to Ty Jerome in exchange for a top-seven protected 2020 1st-round pick. Considering that pick originally belonged to the Milwaukee Bucks, it is all but guaranteed to convey.

After the trade, there were several teams around the NBA that were hoping the Suns would opt to buy out Baynes, who will turn 33 on Dec. 9 and thus does not really fit the timeline of the rebuild in Phoenix. Shams Charania of The Athletic (subscription required) reported the interest from contenders late last week.

Instead, the Suns kept Baynes and he has been invaluable during their surprising 7-5 start, stepping into the starting lineup after Deandre Ayton was suspended for 25 games after testing positive for a banned substance.

But Baynes brought something to the Suns that had been lacking — experience with winning organizations. He won a ring with San Antonio and was with Boston for a run to the conference finals in 2018.

There are other players putting together breakout seasons. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing very well for the Oklahoma City Thunder, Brandon Ingram is scoring at a much higher clip since being traded to the New Orleans Pelicans and former first-round draft picks OG Anunoby of the Toronto Raptors and Bam Adebayo of the Miami Heat have taken huge steps forward.

And that’s not mentioning Devonte’ Graham of the Charlotte Hornets, who has forced his way into a major role in his second season. Graham, a second-round pick in 2018, played only 14.7 minutes per game, averaging 4.7 points and 2.6 assists, but is putting up 18.3 points and 7.0 assists in 32.0 minutes a game thus far this season.

Per 36, his scoring improvement is on a similar plane as that of Baynes — from 11.6 points to 20.6 points even as his playing time has more than doubled.

So while Baynes may not become the second thirtysomething to win Most Improved Player honors, he is at the very least positioning himself for a very lucrative contract when he hits what appears to be a lackluster free agency market again next summer.