4 NBA teams in desperate need of a big November

Team No. 3: Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 3-4, 10th in Western Conference

Remaining November Schedule: at LAC (11/7), vs. BKN (11/8), vs. ATL (11/10), at SAC (11/12), vs. TOR (11/13), at SAS (11/16), at HOU (11/18), at NOP (11/19), at MIL (11/21), at CLE (11/23), at CHI (11/25), vs. OKC (11/27) vs. CHI (11/29)

There’s an old saying, particularly in religious households: be careful what you say aloud, because you never know who or what could be listening.

Earlier this summer, Portland Trail Blazers star guard CJ McCollum made news and bolstered expectations with his declaration that this season was a championship-or-bust level year in his Player’s Tribune column, saying:

"“Our goal is to win a championship. Not to build toward it, but to make it to the NBA Finals, and win the whole thing. We’ve put the work in. We know what it takes, and we know what we have.”"

And bless his heart — for all the buckets he makes look effortless, the confidence that exudes after a Western Conference Finals appearance and his work in instilling a successful culture in Portland — McCollum has to remember: the basketball gods are still, well, the basketball gods.

Brief remnants of last season’s magical run have remained; the Blazers have beaten most of the teams they should have.

But after opening the month with consecutive losses to teams missing their best player, Philadelphia and Golden State (basically the Santa Cruz Warriors by name), it may be time to declare as an important month for the Blazers’ postseason, or dare I say, NBA Finals hopes.

The one variable Portland hasn’t had to worry about is Damian Lillard, the league’s win shares leader, who just so happens to have found a gear beyond “Lillard Time.” The five-time All-Star is averaging 31.1 points per game, a hefty bulk of that coming in the second half (22.0).

In the past, that might have been enough. But since the turn of November, the Blazers have given up 128.0 points per game (which is as bad as it sounds, even in today’s trigger-happy NBA). This is somewhat to be expected, considering the Blazers sacrificed size in favor of speed, when they unloaded Al-Farouq Aminu and Maurice Harkless for Kent Bazemore and Mario Hezonja.

To make matters worse, the team will have to deal with the loss of up-and-coming big Zach Collins for left labrum surgery for about four months.

Collins’ impact isn’t mainstream news, but he serves as the unofficial leader of that starting defense. The Blazers saw a 13.1 points per 100 increase with their third-year big taking the floor.

With existing injuries to the likes of Jusuf Nurkic, Pau Gasol and even Hassan Whiteside‘s battle with nagging injuries, Lillard might have to wonder when his time to run the 5 might come into play.

Jokes aside, depending on your level of optimism, the rest of November offers either a source for future panic, or a chance to get repositioned by December. Monday’s loss to Golden State — whose best player (Eric Paschall) was a relative unknown to the casual NBA fanbase a week ago — proved that this Blazers team can beat anyone, but they are also just as capable of losing to anyone.

Predictable as it may sound, it feels like McCollum’s consistency could be what tilts the scale in deciding games. Over the past two seasons, the Blazers have performed at a 55-win pace when he scores at least 20 points and merely a 43-win team when he doesn’t.

For the most part, this season has given us one of two things from McCollum: 30-point bazookas, in which the Blazers become nearly impossible to beat, or one of those 15-point, two-assist games that leave the Blazers a few points shy.

Outside of an upcoming game against Kawhi Leonard the Clippers, not much evokes fear from the immediate schedule. At the same time, a nine-day road trip that includes Houston, San Antonio, and Milwaukee could be problematic. There’s plenty of should-win games there too, though, including a three-game stretch against the Nets, Hawks and Kings.

The good news is that this Blazers team fits the “been there, done that” mantra. Under Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, they’ve fallen 11 games under .500 and sneaked into the postseason before. Still, even for a team with title-or-bust aspirations, it doesn’t feel like the type of luck one wants to play around with.