5 teams that should have regrets about the 2019 offseason
By Greg Steele
3. Portland Trail Blazers
Speaking of wizards, you don’t even need a crystal ball to see the 2022 Portland Trail Blazers. By locking in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum to long-term contracts to go with Jusuf Nurkic‘s extension from the 2018 offseason, the Blazers set the deck for the next few seasons.
They now cannot change the basic structure of their team without initiating a Jenga-esque collapse by removing one of the players occupying most of their cap space. While there is reason to question the price tag on McCollum’s extension, it is fair to say that Portland’s backcourt is in safe hands with the mercurial duo. Damian Lillard was sixth in the league last year with 6.9 offensive wins, and ranked 12th in total wins at 9.6.
What is far from certain, however, is the status of the Blazers’ wing rotation. This summer saw both of their starting forwards from last season, Maurice Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu, sign elsewhere in free agency.
Replacing the two defensive linchpins will prove quite problematic. Aminu had the 10th-heaviest defensive load of any player in the league last season, while Harkless was also among the top 40 most crucial defenders.
My Matchup-Based Defense model evaluates both players as indispensable stoppers. Among high-load defenders, Harkless ranked sixth in the league with 12.3 Points Saved per 100 possessions due to Shooting Defense. Aminu was not far behind at 11.1 PS/100, good for 14th among high-load defenders.
Furthermore, the two ranked in the 62nd percentile (Aminu) and 51st percentile (Harkless) in Non-Shooting Defense, meaning that both players forced more turnovers per possession than more than half the players in the league.
For those who prefer player tracking data, my Tracking-Based defensive model credits Harkless with 2.3 defensive wins last season at a very high rate of .038 wins per game, while Aminu comes in at 2.8 defensive wins (.035 per game).
Lillard and McCollum can certainly keep the offense afloat, but the Blazers have lost most of their defensive firepower. How they respond is a matter of speculation.