5 teams that should have regrets about the 2019 offseason

5. Miami Heat

The award for greatest risk-to-reward ratio goes to the Miami Heat and 74-year-old head honcho Pat Riley, whom many observers have assumed went all-in on upgrading a roster that missed the playoffs in the Eastern Conference last year in order to spend his final era with the team piloting a playoff squad instead of rebuilding.

The Heat’s marquee move was the massive four-team trade which netted them Jimmy Butler (or, more accurately, facilitated Butler’s sign-and-trade). Butler has certainly proven capable of operating as a high-caliber superstar, though last season was a possibly significant departure from his previous track record.

Though Butler had produced at a remarkably stable level during the three preceding years with marks near .130 wins per game and .170 wins per 48 minutes in each campaign, last season saw significant dips in both per-minute and per-game production.

In order to complete the trade, Miami had to send out both Josh Richardson (to Philly) and Hassan Whiteside (to Portland). With Butler “only” putting up 5.0 wins last year, he is unlikely to improve on the performance the Heat got out of Josh Richardson last year.

Unless Butler returns to his previous form, the Heat have simply acquired Butler at the cost of a younger, cheaper version of Jimmy Butler. Josh Richardson contributed 6.6 wins last year, although his efficiency suffered on an undermanned Heat squad.

Focusing specifically on the defensive end of the floor, it is difficult to see much to be gained at all by swapping out Richardson for Butler. Richardson ranked fifth in the league in shooting defense among high-load defenders while carrying a similar defensive load to Butler’s.

Even if Butler is able to recapture his elite two-way dominance, Miami still had to part with Whiteside. Hassan Whiteside has long been one of the most devastating rebounders in the game, and last year he recorded 15.7 net rebounds per 48 minutes, the second-best figure in the league.

The chances of replacing Whiteside’s interior defensive and rebounding prowess with Meyers Leonard, also acquired in the Butler trade, appears remote.

Miami bought a lower-rung playoff spot in the present at the expense of flexibility and viability in the future. Even if their young core all exceeds expectations, the Heat are now in a position which will prohibit them from keeping Bam Adebayo, Justise Winslow, Tyler Herro and next year’s first-round pick when their rookie deals roll over.