Predictions: Hawks not expected to contend, but …
3. Kevin Huerter will make a jump in Year 2
Going into the 2018 draft, everyone knew Kevin Huerter for the incendiary 3-point shooting that made him such a standout player at the University of Maryland. In his first season with the Hawks last year, he lived up to that reputation, shooting 38.5 percent from downtown in 75 games.
Outside of his flawless shooting stroke, however, Huerter struggled to find his footing. Averaging only 9.7 points per game with a 10.1 Player Efficiency Rating (PER), and .034 win shares per 48 minutes (WS/48), the young wing looked like anything but a potential superstar.
Worse yet, he struggled alongside purported co-star Trae Young: the two combined for a minus-4.2 net rating when they shared the floor.
As a shot creator, Huerter looked out of his depth more often than not. His 0.75 PPP on pick-and-rolls placed him in the 33rd percentile last year, so it’s easy to see why he was used primarily as a floor spacer throughout his inaugural campaign. And the less said about his defense — opponents shot 51.1 percent against him — the better.
Despite those issues, Huerter flashed some glimpses of on-ball excellence last year, be it an advanced pass in transition or his 37.7 percent shooting on pull-up 3s and without Kent Bazemore around to siphon his minutes and a clean bill of health to start the season, he should be able to make some considerable strides this year in becoming the secondary playmaker this team needs.
2. The offense will improve
Let’s not sugarcoat this: the Atlanta Hawks’ offense sucked last year; it’s a big reason why they finished 29-53 last year. Sure, it wasn’t as troubling as their 27th-ranked defense, but their inability to consistently torch defenses contributed just as much to their losing season.
To put it simply, the Hawks’ scoring attack was akin to an artist who draws a beautiful outline of a mural, but consistently paints outside of the lines. The pick-and-roll-heavy scheme created a lot of great looks on drive-and-kicks — they ranked ninth in open 3-point attempts and led the NBA in wide-open shots from behind the arc — but they couldn’t turn those opportunities into points.
The numbers speak for themselves: Atlanta ranked 23rd in offensive rating, 29th in pick-and-roll PPP, 27th in handoff PPP, 27th in transition PPP, 23rd in open 3-point percentage and last in turnovers per 100 possessions last year.
But there’s no need to despair. The offense actually improved after the All-Star break, ranking 11th in offensive rating and given that their rise up the ranks correlated with Trae Young’s ascent, they should look more like that version of the team this year.
Will they become a top-five or top-10 offense? Probably not, but with a litany of sharpshooting wings and the continued development of the young stars, the Hawks should be a more cohesive group on this end in 2019-20.