NBA: Ranking teams by tiers for 2019-20 season
Tier 6: Fringe Playoff Teams
Brooklyn Nets, Indiana Pacers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Sacramento Kings
There is a difference in result for the teams in Tier 6, as the Western Conference squads have an infinitesimal shot at the playoffs while the Eastern Conference teams each have a slot reserved for them. Qualitatively these teams are likely around the same point, just shy of league average.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have a budding superstar in Karl-Anthony Towns, an offensive force and just 23 years old. Last season when Robert Covington was healthy the Timberwolves played at a pace just above .500 and they will aim for that mark again.
The Sacramento Kings took a huge leap a year ago and regression plus a crowded West make it unlikely they will break their long playoff drought.
One of the teams with the widest range of outcomes is the New Orleans Pelicans. They could make a push for a winning record, with an All-Star candidate in Jrue Holiday, veteran contributors at center (Derrick Favors) and shooting guard (J.J. Redick) and young players in Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and, of course, Zion Williamson with the upside to surprise.
They could also falter due to so many young players, most of whom cannot shoot well from outside. It would not be a surprise to see them in the playoff mix, but the lower outcomes are more likely.
In the Eastern Conference, the Brooklyn Nets were a big winner this offseason, adding two stars in Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. This season they will likely stumble, having shipped out a lot of talent and without Durant for likely the entire year. Excellent coaching may keep this team in the bottom of the playoff picture, but they are not far from missing out.
Similarly, the Indiana Pacers would be a playoff lock were their top player healthy, but Victor Oladipo will miss at least two months of the season. Many will point to the Pacers maintaining a playoff pace last year after Oladipo went down, but this summer they lost their best offensive player (Bojan Bogdanovic) and defensive player (Thaddeus Young) from that stretch run.
In addition they are replacing their top four guards. This team could struggle from the jump until Oladipo returns and struggle enough to get leap-frogged by the next tier.
If these teams all swapped conferences then the Pelicans, Timberwolves and Kings would all have a strong shot at the postseason. As it is they will likely miss out, while the Nets and Pacers try to overcome injuries to stay afloat and make the playoffs. None of these teams is likely a contender to win a series.