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San Antonio Spurs: 2019-20 NBA season preview

By Marlow Ferguson Jr.

SAN ANTONIO, TX - NOVEMBER 25: LaMarcus Aldridge #12 of the San Antonio Spurs gets introduced before the game against the Dallas Mavericks on November 25, 2015 at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2015 NBAE (Photos by Chris Covatta/NBAE via Getty Images)
SAN ANTONIO, TX - NOVEMBER 25: LaMarcus Aldridge #12 of the San Antonio Spurs gets introduced before the game against the Dallas Mavericks on November 25, 2015 at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2015 NBAE (Photos by Chris Covatta/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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San Antonio Spurs
(Photos by Mark Sobhani/NBAE via Getty Images) /

Storyline 1: Is “same old” LaMarcus enough in the analytics era?

Let’s be truthful for a second: we can talk about how intrigued we are about the return of Dejounte Murray, or how phase two in the DeMar DeRozan experiment should come with fewer road bumps.

But as 2019-20 stands, this boat rocks to the slow, unabiding rhythm of its 7-time All-Star. And with the line between “sinking” and “swimming” in this deep Western Conference being so closely located, this figures to be the must-answer question for the upcoming campaign.

When asked about what he added to game, the 34-year-old confidently said that fans should expect him to be in his “same old” form. And, as a surface statement, that’s reassuring. By as early as 2017, there were whispers of a potential decline in Aldridge’s career arc. Since then, only 11 players have produced more win shares than the Spurs centerpiece.

Nearly any team under the offensive leadership of Aldridge can be penciled in for a 45-to-50 win season, which appears to be on par with what’s expected from this year’s team. But from on outsider’s standards, there were two or three tweaks that we saw that would almost ensure that the 5-time All-NBA Team selection could do well on making it his sixth:

  • generating a 2014-15 level season from beyond the arc: that season, Aldridge — who’d never taken more than 28 in a single season, hoisted up 105 of them — hit on a respectable 35.2 percent from deep, a move that seemed it would reroute the back end of his career.
  • continue to scale upward on the defensive end: Aldridge had long been underappreciated on the less-glamorous end of the floor, something that’s been articulated here. His first two seasons in San Antonio, even, you could make a case that his defense was more impactful than the “O.”
  • team success: something not totally of his own decision, but it definitely helps with his notoriety as a “laid back” player.

The latter two aren’t much of a worry, but as for Aldridge (and the Spurs in general) shooting 3-point shots should become more of priority, and not even for what it could do personally, but because: a) the potential Murray-DeRozan-Gay lineups would call for it to stretch defense for slashers, and b) in Aldridge’s case, he’s already in the wheelhouse anyways.

Take Aldridge’s shot chart from a season ago for example. The deeper, more filled chart is his 2018-19 regular season, and the lesser-filled, bluer chart is his postseason. With the number of shots that are within a step away from a 3-pointer, it almost seems like the smart, well… “step” to make.

From a numbers perspective: Aldridge’s average shot distance a season ago was the second-lowest of his career (9.7 feet from the rim), the shortest since 2010-11. Still, over one-fourth of his 16.3 shot attempts per game came within that 16-foot to 3-point range.

The step back is easier said than done, and Aldridge believes he has — he took about a 3-pointer every other game, and hit to the tune of 23.8 percent — but in the age where it’s become analytics or death, one would be wise to wonder if 3-point volume is the anchor that could keep his hopes at bay.

All told, maybe not messing with what works is the answer. With a Hall of Fame caliber resume under his belt, not fixing what isn’t broken may be the simplest answer. Nonetheless, it should remain a storyline to watch, should Aldridge be looking for a third deep postseason run in San Antonio.