Utah Jazz: Criteria for a good 2019-20 season

Despite making the playoffs the last three years, the Utah Jazz only have three exits in the second round or earlier to show for. A new roster means new expectations, so what exactly does a good season look like for Utah?

Last season, the Utah Jazz boasted one of the most suffocating defenses in the league. They ranked second in defensive rating (DRtg) with a 106.11 and fourth in points allowed per game (PAPG) with 106.5. Although some point to the departure of Derrick Favors and Ricky Rubio as reason for concern, Utah should still plan on finishing in the top five in DRtg and PAPG.

Their new acquisitions should allow them to hold the floodgates and maintain their status as a top defensive team.

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The loss of Rubio isn’t the most significant given his similar defensive profile to new acquisition Mike Conley, but it would be remiss to ignore the fact that Favors’ overall defense will certainly be missed.

Among qualified starting big men (centers and forwards), the veteran ranked first in defensive field goal percentage (DFG%) within six feet of the basket with a 49.1 percent on 5.9 field goal attempts (FGA) per game. When switched onto 3-point shooters, he also ranked first, defending 3.1 3-point attempts per game with a DFG% of 27.3 percent.

That being said, Favors’ elite paint defense was somewhat redundant with Rudy Gobert on the floor. Although having two rim protectors is great for interior defense, the Jazz should be able to thrive with just their DPOY manning the middle.

Additionally, while some advanced defensive metrics find his defensive performance to be poor, ESPN did have free agent pick-up Ed Davis second in the NBA only to Rudy Gobert in Defensive Real Plus-Minus last season. Davis has an elite motor, is one the best rebounders in the game and he should help fill in minutes when Gobert takes a rest.

Furthermore, between the 6-foot-8, 226 pounds Joe Ingles and the newly-acquired 6-foot=8, 216 pound Bojan Bogdanović, the Jazz should be able to effectively cover the forward position.

Moreover, look out for Dante Exum to potentially have a major impact on the defensive end. While he’s struggled with injuries the last few years, if healthy, he will pose problems for opposing guards on the defensive end.

He’s a big guard at 6-foot-6 and 190 pounds, and when tasked with guarding James Harden back in the 2018 playoffs, Exum held The Beard to just 21.4 percent from the field. Granted this was across just four games, but from looking at the tape, Exum appears to have the defensive chops to keep up with the best of them.

Although losing Favors and Rubio may have some defensive implications, their replacements provide significant upgrades on the offensive end. With Favors and Gobert on the floor at the same time, the Jazz struggled with their spacing, especially in an NBA where 4s are generally expected to stretch the floor.

Their spacing issues were only exacerbated by a lack of shooting at the point guard slot given Rubio’s 31.1 percent shooting from deep.

Moreover, Donovan Mitchell‘s 36.2 percent from range was scarcely better than the league average of 35.5 percent and with Joe Ingles (who had a down year shooting) as the only reliable shooter from beyond the arc among Jazz starters, Utah’s starting five ranked 27th in 3-point percentage.

With their new look lineup, the goal should be to finish in the top 10 for offensive rating (ORtg) & points per game (PPG). They’ll have above (league) average 3-point shooting from their guards, Conley and Mitchell, and elite shooting at the forward slots between Bogdanović and Ingles from the opening tip.

Though the team will miss the bench scoring from the likes of Jae Crowder and Kyle Korver, the potential for this year’s bench is high between a third-year Royce O’Neale, Exum, and newly acquired Jeff Green, Emmanuel Mudiay and Ed Davis.

The last time the Jazz made a Conference Finals appearance was in 2007 where they fell to the eventual champion San Antonio Spurs in five games.

To put into perspective how long ago this was, in the 2006-07 season, All-Star Carlos Boozer led the Jazz in scoring with 20.9 points per game, LeBron James was just 22 years old and Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry were freshmen at Texas and Davidson respectively.

The last time the Jazz made it to the NBA Finals was in 1998, where they lost in six games to Michael Jordan‘s Bulls for the second straight year. In ’98, Tim Duncan was just a rookie, Kobe Bryant was an NBA sophomore and Utah was still led by the duo of John Stockton and Karl Malone.

While the goal is always to win a championship, after losing in the first round last season, making it to the second round could be construed as a success. However, the Utah squads of the past few seasons topped out at the second round, and a new squad mean new expectations.

This Jazz team should be looking to make it to no less than the conference finals and the best way to do so is by winning their division.

Last season, the Jazz ended fifth in the West and third in their division, although they were just four games back of Denver for first in the Northwest Division and three behind Portland for second. With an improved offense, Utah could ostensibly beat out both the Nuggets and Blazers to take the Northwest.

Doing so would almost certainly guarantee a top-four seed in the playoffs, ensuring home court advantage for at least the first round, if not for further into the playoffs.

Utah struggled mightily in last season’s playoffs offensively, managing just 97.8 PPG against a Houston squad that allowed opponents 109.1 PPG in the regular season. While they did hold the Rockets, who averaged 113.9 PPG in the regular season, to 107.0 PPG during the series, their offensive woes kept them from capitalizing on their defensive advantage.

Given that they’ve dramatically patched up their streaky offense by adding several viable scoring options outside of Mitchell, they should give any team a run for their money come April.