NBA: 10 players certain to regress in 2019-20

2. Tobias Harris, Philadelphia 76ers

Tobias Harris made a star turn last season and earned himself a max contract as a result. Early in the season with the LA Clippers, Harris generated All-Star buzz with his dependable scoring for an overachieving team. After the blockbuster trade that sent him to Philadelphia, Harris provided invaluable rebounding and floor spacing in the Sixers’ playoff run.

He had the best scoring season of his career with an outstanding 59.2 percent True Shooting Percentage, and flashed legitimate passing skills with a career-best 12.5 percent assist percentage.

The perfect modern stretch 4, Harris has increased his shooting efficiency throughout his career while also increasing his 3-point attempt rate from 13.6 percent of his shots as a rookie to 31.3% of his shots last year. On top of his growth, Harris is only 27 years old.

What’s not to like? This summer, the Philadelphia 76ers also signed Al Horford. The result of that signing for Harris is massive; it means that he will have to function as a full-time wing player, where his relative lack of quickness relative to opponents becomes a weakness.

Harris is at a physical and athletic advantage as a stretch 4, but shifting him down to the 3 incurs a major disadvantage on the defensive end. While Harris will be as important as ever on the offensive end as one of Philly’s few outside shooters, his overall value is likely to decline as a resulting of playing in very difficult (for him) matchups the majority of the time.