San Antonio Spurs: 3 bold predictions for the 2019-20 season
3. The Spurs will be the No. 1 ranked defense in the NBA
As one of only six teams to end the 2018-19 season with two or more 20-point per game scorers (minimum of 40 games), it’s safe to say the San Antonio Spurs are a safe bet to be in good hands offensively.
To return to the second round and beyond, though, it’ll likely have to be the defense that bolsters them back over the top.
The topic of Spurs defense isn’t even worth discussing without first mentioning what figures to be one of the league’s best backcourts in the league. A season ago, sophomore Derrick White burst onto the scene as one of the great surprise stories, especially as a defensive force.
To put that into numbers: per 100 possessions, the Spurs had a +3.4 efficiency differential with White on the floor, a number that would have transformed this team from a 48-win club to an inspiring 57-win one.
Pair that with the return of All-Defensive First Team guard Dejounte Murray, and it’s safe to assume opposing Western Conference guards could be in for sleepless nights in the foreseeable future.
Film study tells a similar story. Perhaps what’s most noteworthy is the fact that both Murray (in 2017-18) and White (in 2018-19) both did their damage with offensive-minded guards on the opposing sides, be it Patty Mills or Bryn Forbes.
Watching White’s defense is almost similar to the way a defensive back presses a wide receiver at the line of scrimmage in football.
A few plays later, you’ll see the Mavericks trying to dial up what looks to be the Spain pick-and-roll, only for White (with help from Aldridge and Forbes) to force a turnover.
Doncic came into that Mar. 12 game averaging 24.4 points and 6.6 assists over his last 16 games prior to, only be stymied into a 5-of-18 shooting night with nine turnovers on that night.
Putting that together, the Spurs will likely have a backcourt of White, who ranked No. 3 among all guards in D-PIPM in 2018-19, and Murray, who ranked No. 1 among guards in 2017-18.
So the backcourt should be elite, that much is understood. While the Spurs wouldn’t likely have All-Defensive Team caliber players in the frontcourt, they do have a half-dozen players ranging from switchable to serviceable.
In today’s do-it-all NBA, you can never have too many 3-and-D caliber wings, which is what makes the signings and re-signings of Marcu — um, DeMarre Carroll, Rudy Gay and even Trey Lyles so important.
Who fascinates the most, though, is LaMarcus Aldridge. It’s difficult to just accidentally “stumble” into eight All-Star Games, but he’s remains the type of player who has never been given his compete due as a two-way player.
Like everything else, Aldridge’s play is usually unceremonious. Though he’s a tier or two below the Rudy Goberts of defense, he’s shown the ability to be the quarterback of a team on that end of the floor. Lineups.com did an interesting play-by-play study of his game, with one play in particular that sticks out.
This clip is from a few seasons ago, but it showcases what Aldridge is about. For context, the Spurs do what is called “icing” ballhandlers, forcing them — ironically enough — to shoot midrange shots.
As a rim-protector, Aldridge was one of only 35 players to have five or more shots attempted against him at the paint (described as shots less than six feet from rim) per game.
Of the sample, he had the second lowest frequency, but opponents saw a 10.1 percent decrease compared to normal, when they took their shot at going at Aldridge.
To put that into perspective, opponents shot 62.5 percent against the Texan; they shot 62.6 percent against Gobert, and 61.7 percent against Horford. Needless to say, a solid ballpark to be in.
With the three of them, alongside either Gay or Carroll (or even Poeltl) and DeMar DeRozan, there’s a chance the Spurs put together an outstanding defensive season, and ride that into a 50-plus win season. In a nutshell:
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Regular Season Record: 51-31, 6th in West
Postseason Notables: Defeats the Jazz in R1, Loses to Clippers in R2
Award Predictions: LaMarcus Aldridge makes All-NBA Third Team and 2020 All-Star Game; Dejounte Murray makes All-Defensive Second Team; Derrick White makes All-Defensive Second Team; Keldon Johnson makes All-Rookie Second Team; Gregg Popovich earns top-5 finish in Coach of the Year voting; Lonnie Walker IV earns top-5 finish in Most Improved Player of the Year voting.