San Antonio Spurs: 3 bold predictions for the 2019-20 season

1. Spurs finish top-3 in bench points for first time since 2015-16

Much has changed since the San Antonio Spurs were last viewed as legitimate championship contenders.

Without acknowledging the departure of the multiple Hall of Fame elephants in the room, the correlation between employing a top-10 bench unit and next-level contention have always been closely connected.

Perhaps it serves as no coincidence that 2018-19 marked the first time this decade that the San Antonio Spurs were outside of the top-10 in bench points per game (13th with postseason included, and 11th without).

We could play devil’s advocate here; the last time they ranked outside of that top 66th percentile of the league, they won an NBA championship (2004-05). But do you see a prime Tim Duncan walking through that door?

The positive is that the Spurs’ bench effort did get progressively better as the season went on.

At the start of 2018-19, scoring was so scarce that fans like myself began to flirt with the seemingly sacrilegious idea that San Antonio should at least consider the idea of Carmelo Anthony‘s services.

Hindsight always works 20-20, but it’s still worth wondering to this day if his impact could have helped when the Spurs went through offensive droughts in that Denver series.

The half section of the world that did predict a Spurs upset cited their experience and bench chemistry as key reasons why, something even Nuggets head coach Mike Malone noticed.

All told, it proved to be a needless worry for the Nuggets; the Spurs averaged only 28.1 points per game (10.1 points down from their regular season average), compared to the Nuggets’ 29.0 points per game.

To their credit, the Spurs bench eventually worked to find that sweet spot, mixing up lineups that included the likes of Rudy Gay, Marco Belinelli, Patty Mills, Davis Bertans and even a time-to-time starter like Jakob Poeltl.

In fact, that five-man lineup became the sixth-most frequently used rotation last year for the Spurs. In a 118-minute sample size, the produced a DRtg of 90.0, and an actual net rating of 21.8.

Say what you want about Rudy Gay’s past — a lack of portable traits, and the absence of impact of winning to counteract that narrative – but his ability to seamlessly fit in as both a starter, as well as the go-to bench scorer was one of the underrated feel good stories from a season ago.

See the Spurs post-All-Star run when they went nuclear, going nearly a month without a loss, and winning 15 of 20 to close the season.

Perfectly synchronized in that streak was Gay’s move to the bench that allowed him to shoot (14.4 shots per 36 in March) without taking looks away from LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan.

Regardless of if Gay takes on the starting power forward role, or the Spurs go with Carroll or Poeltl at center, the Spurs will have much more flexibility to mix in lineups for the second unit.

In a perfect world, you can take your pick: the Spurs bench will be adding in a player who averaged 30.0 points in 32.5 minutes per game in Summer League play with Lonnie Walker, cream-of-the-crop shooters in Bryn Forbes and Patty Mills and replacing the minutes of players like Dante Cunningham and Davis Bertans with just as capable ones in DeMarre Carroll and Trey Lyles.

And that goes without even mentioning the Spurs’ draft trio.

The hope (and boldness of the prediction) is that the Spurs realize the connection between a top-tier bench mob and moving back into the small talk of teams with a bonafide shot at a deep Western Conference postseason run.

It’s of no surprise, for example, that the Spurs ranked first in bench scoring in every season from 2006-07 to 2009-10.

There’s been plenty of talk, the type of offseason optimism that generally fails to live up to its calling. But with this Spurs team, there’s an old saying that comes to mind: the sky’s the limit.

In this prediction, they “disguise the limit” and battle with the Clippers and Nets for the crown as best second unit in the Association.