By likely checking both individual and team boxes with few realistic competitors, Nikola Jokic’s path to the MVP trophy is there for the taking in 2019-20.
After three years spent trending in the right direction to start his career, Nikola Jokic emerged from the 2018-19 season a full-fledged superstar. He made his first All-Star game by averaging absurd averages of 20.1 points, 10.8 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game.
His Denver Nuggets had their most successful season in six years, posting 54 wins and advancing to the Western Conference Semifinals. The Joker was also named a member of the All-NBA First Team, the first Nugget to make one of the three teams since Carmelo Anthony back in 2009-10.
Given his rapid rise from a former late second-round pick, Jokic’s explosion onto the national NBA scene wasn’t a surprise to those who paid close attention.
The challenge now lies in continuing up that ascent, and as the inevitable MVP predictions trickle in as the season inches closer, there’s a perfect path up the mountain many don’t seem to believe Jokic can reach.
The MVP discussion is a subjective one, where different people value various metrics on different scales. Generally, however, most criteria involve an elite level of statistical production coupled with a rarified level of team success.
Denver posted the fourth-most wins in the NBA last season and was bested by only the Golden State Warriors out West. Jokic is just 24 year of age with a deep supporting cast developing at a similar rate.
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Jamal Murray had a breakout postseason by averaging 21.3 points and Gary Harris is one of the best young two-way wings.
The Nuggets were the second-youngest team in the league last season and yet found themselves within a game of the conference finals.
That trio, along with others like Malik Beasley and Torrey Craig, could certainly improve to a level that keeps Denver near the top of the Western Conference standings.
Jokic’s near triple-double numbers were some of the rarest in NBA history, matched only by historic greats Wilt Chamberlain and Oscar Robertson along with Russell Westbrook.
A doughy 250 pounds, an improved physique and 3-point shot — 30.7 percent last year — could further diversify one of the game’s unique skill sets.
As important as these two factors are, they don’t clinch the trophy. More than anything, it’s about the competition one has to face off against, where even career-best seasons can fall short — just ask James Harden and Paul George.
An argument could be made for the NBA’s talent pool being the deepest its ever been, a sentiment that certainly rings true at the top of the individual hierarchy.
Superstars aren’t in short supply, and many of them are pushing the boundaries of sacred statistical thresholds, crowding a discussion in recent years with no definitive solution.
2019-20 NBA regular season MVP award
— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) July 6, 2019
G Antetokounmpo 7/2
S Curry 4/1
J Harden 9/2
A Davis 10/1
N Jokic 10/1
R Westbrook 12/1
L James 12/1
K Leonard 12/1
P George 12/1
D Lillard 25/1
J Embiid 25/1
B Simmons 50/1
K Irving 50/1
D Mitchell 50/1
L Doncic 50/1
Z Williamson 100/1
In almost any other season, there’d be little room for Jokic at the table for MVP candidates, but the 2019-20 season looks to be a bit different. The NBA elites have gone nowhere, but just about every single one comes with a caveat.
With the concept of load management growing each season, even the healthiest of stars are opting to play the long game with their bodies.
They have predetermined dates for DNPs that, while sprinkled across the regular season might not draw too much attention, but do take a noticeable chunk off a total figure that factors into their MVP cases.
LeBron James will be 35 in December. Daryl Morey is invested in keeping James Harden from his yearly postseason burnouts. Kawhi Leonard is likely to repeat the same regime that kept him healthy during his run to the Finals MVP award last June.
Even without those games spent on the bench, many of today’s top players are canceled out by other perennial All-Stars. Superteams may no longer be trending, but dynamic duos are still very much present.
LeBron has Anthony Davis diving to the rim. Harden can defer to Russell Westbrook and Kawhi is flanked by Paul George.
With Kevin Durant now elsewhere and Klay Thompson on the mend, Stephen Curry certainly has a shot to reclaim the throne he twice sat on. Unfortunately, he’s got the wear and tear of five consecutive Finals to keep track of.
Along with the increased responsibilities in the absence of Thompson, Steve Kerr will likely keep Steph’s minutes in check as much as possible.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is no fan of rest with only Khris Middleton by his side.
As the reigning MVP however — like Curry in 2015-16 — the Greek Freak must produce at a historical level to push past voter fatigue, a feat that might not be obtainable given how high he set the bar last season.
Both Jokic and the Nuggets will have to deal with the repercussions of increased expectations, but that’s where success under playoff pressure should come into play.
They continue to push the ceiling on what the consensus has planned for them, and there’s little reason to doubt another step in the coming season.
He finished fourth in the MVP voting last season, with those ahead of him likely to fall back in the standings. A championship would do wonders for a resume looking more Hall of Fame worthy by the day.
Until then, the only individual achievement remaining for Jokic is the one the basketball gods have placed him in prime position to win.