Miami Heat: Addressing the pressing point guard debate

With the opening of training camp just a few weeks away, here’s a look into the Miami Heat and their starting point guard dilemma.

Since the conclusion of their underwhelming 2018-19 campaign, the Miami Heat‘s choice as their starting point guard moving forward has been a hot topic.

Clearly the two options at this stage are Justise Winslow and Goran Dragic. Following the knee injury sustained during the midst of last season to Dragic, Winslow was afforded his largest stint as the primary ball handler since entering the league in 2015.

Given his limited experience for this role up until this point, Winslow demonstrated more than enough to suggest he could handle the job on a permanent basis.

In 59 games as a starter, most of these handling the point, Winslow averaged 12.9 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists in 30.3 minutes per game.

Shortly after Dragic was sidelined, Winslow enjoyed a particularly strong 16-game stretch where he posted 15.9 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game while shooting at a terrific 49.0 percent clip from the field, well above his career 41.9 percent mark.

So while Winslow enjoyed a career-best season, Dragic’s season was virtually the opposite. Restricted to a career-low 36 games, Dragic averaged 13.7 points and 4.8 assists per game, just one season removed from being named an All-Star for the first time in his career.

With Dragic now 33 and Winslow just 23 and on the rise, it would seem inevitable that the Heat would move forward with the younger of the pair in charge, particularly considering the manner in which he handled things last season.

However, team president Pat Riley caused a degree of uncertainty this offseason when he made the following comments:

These comments were somewhat contradicted just a fortnight later, when Dragic was close to being traded to the Dallas Mavericks as part of the complicated trade to acquire Jimmy Butler, before the Mavericks ultimately pulled out of the deal.

So when trying to ascertain who would be most suited to start at the point, one needs to take a look at their individual strengths.

For Winslow, possessing the ability to handle the ball and set up the offense at 6’7″, while also taking on the responsibility for being an elite perimeter defender, represents an enormous advantage for any team.

Overall, its Winslow’s versatility that sets him apart, and thus gives the Heat a genuine point of difference in the backcourt.

For his part, Dragic’s pure experience in running a team and being able to get into the heart of the defense still presents an enormous asset.

Last season, despite being limited to injury, Dragic still led the team with 11.0 drives per game, with Winslow’s career-best 8.8 per game still some way behind.

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Additionally, Dragic’s 2:45 assist-to-turnover ratio was his best recording since arriving with the Heat in the 2014-15 season.

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However, Dragic’s usual efficiency from the field fell away noticeably, with his 41.3 percent shooting clip from the field his lowest return since his rookie season of 2008-09.

Conversely, Winslow’s conversion from the field continued its ascension, with his 3.9 attempts per game from 3-point range more than doubling his previous high.

Furthermore, his 37.5 percent return overall, including a team-best 41.2 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, meant Winslow had not only impressed as a ball-handler but also as a perimeter threat.

Also, Winslow produced a solid 2:20 assist-to-turnover ratio in his 52 games starting, with this number rising to 2:37 in his appearances post the All-Star break.

With the expected return of Dion Waiters to the starting lineup come opening night, the need for Winslow starting at the point ahead of Dragic makes further sense.

Even last season when on the comeback trail from a serious ankle in jury, Waiters still managed to average 9.3 drives per game, with 56.4 percent of those resulting in a pass, by far the highest return of all guards on the roster.

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With Winslow and Waiters able to play off each other, not to mention the newly arrived Jimmy Butler, Dragic can be left to his own devices in heading up the second unit as a genuinely elite sixth man.

In conjunction with rookie shooting guard Tyler Herro, the Heat could anticipate Dragic somewhat replicating Dwyane Wade from last season, a veteran with the ability and experience to make a real difference in the second unit.

Furthermore, Dragic is entering a contract year, making the incentive for him to perform all the more prevalent.

So while both Justise Winslow and Goran Dragic each bring differing skill sets to the table, it’s Winslow’s combination of his physical makeup, modest usage rate and ability to contribute significantly at both ends of the floor that should ultimately set him apart as the point guard of the future for the Miami Heat.