Denver Nuggets: Ranking player effectiveness by net rating

Here’s a perspective regarding the Denver Nuggets’ highest impact players that uses net rating as a way to measure player effectiveness.

As the Denver Nuggets‘ core continues to blossom, each prominent member is developing a sense of purpose and skills to fill their respective roles. In light of this, a pecking order can be difficult to decipher.

How do you compare a scorer to a defender? Or a passer to a rebounder?

Take defensive stopper Torrey Craig, for example, who shouldn’t be evaluated by traditional points per game methods, as this ignores his work on the stopping end. And did Jamal Murray’s 18.2 points per game last season overcome the obstacles created by his poor defense, making him an overall attribute for the Nuggets?

A simple way to summarize this question: Which guys make the squad better?

There’s a statistic called net rating, which measures a team’s performance per 100 possessions with any given player on the court. Take Stephen Curry, who led last year’s NBA with a 13.7 net rating (minimum 60 games played).

With Curry on the floor, his team outscored opponents by an average of 13.7 points per 100 possessions. This all but proves his fancy dribbling and deep 3-point attempts are worthwhile, as he specifically puts the Golden State Warriors at their best.

Net rating isn’t an end-all stat, as some factors can vary. Naturally, anyone playing with a superstar can ride the Superman Trolley to a higher mark, and losing squads rarely produce strong net ratings.

Nonetheless, this statistic is a good start in determining player effectiveness, especially when deciding how to play guys within the same team.

The Nuggets enter 2019-20 with lurking uncertainties at small forward, which could be filled in various manners. The other four starters are set, but the small forward position will ultimately come down to one of the following to begin the season:

• Will Barton: The thrilling but inconsistent scorer
• Torrey Craig: The defensive stopper
• Malik Beasley: The sharpshooter and transition master
• Jerami Grant: The athletic, two-way combo forward

Could net rating numbers signal a direction in which the Nuggets should proceed at small forward? And what do these stats tell us about the value of other core members?

Prepare to be surprised…or perhaps proven correct in previous assumptions, as we rank the core members based on last year’s net rating:

1. Paul Millsap: 8.6 Net Rating

This is where Paul Millsap’s true two-way impact is shown, as last year’s 12.6 points per game don’t fully illustrate his contribution. Defensively, Millsap transformed Denver’s stopping efforts from second-worst in 2016-17 to 10th-best last season, an astounding shift in just two years.

His offense is also among the team’s most effective, as he’s sacrificed greatly to let Nikola Jokic run the show, but still scores from the post in a pinch.

His impact isn’t greater than Jokic’s, but it’s interesting to see how stellar Denver is with Millsap on the floor. He’s among the league’s most underappreciated defenders, while he still packs a punch offensively.

2. Gary Harris: 6.2 Net Rating

Another strong two-way wing, Gary Harris worked alongside Millsap to drastically change Denver’s defense over the past two seasons. He held Damian Lillard to 39.6 percent shooting in the conference semifinals, which is hard to ignore considering Lillard entered the series as perhaps the league’s hottest player.

Offensively, Harris also assumes a huge role, featured behind only Jokic and Murray. Harris hits from deep, has a strong left-to-right drive, and finishes explosively at the rim.

Again, he isn’t more impactful than Jokic, but his two-way prowess works well for the Nuggets, as evidenced by his favorable net rating. Perhaps Denver should be looking at two-way talent to fill future spots around Jokic, as there appears to be a trend here.

3. Nikola Jokic: 5.8 Net Rating

Here lies the Nuggets’ cornerstone, their franchise superstar…ranked third? Swallow this with a grain of salt, but there’s a message to be taken away here. Of the 18 players who appeared last season for the Nuggets, Jokic ranked fourth-to-last with a defensive rating of 107.5.

While Jokic’s on-ball defense visibly improved last season, his help-side defense hurt his net impact. Offensively, he’s talented enough to build around and will carry the squad for years to come.

For the best results, however, Denver must pair him with an impactful rim-protector, like Paul Millsap or Jerami Grant, to maximize the Nuggets’ point differential.

4. Jerami Grant: 5.4 Net Rating

As the new acquisition, Grant already ranks fourth on the net rating scale, showing significant two-way talent. The kicker is that this number will probably improve in 2019-20, as the Nuggets are better than the squad he came from.

Defensively Grant has the height (6’9”), wingspan (7’3”), quickness and athleticism, all of which help the Nuggets greatly. On the attacking end, he’s an explosive finisher who also hit 39.2 percent of his looks from deep last season.

His strong abilities on both ends could render him the fourth-most impactful Nugget overall.

5. Jamal Murray: 4.8 Net Rating

A tale of two Jamal’s, Murray is a wonderful offensive talent while leaving much to be desired on the stopping end. His 18.2 points per game last season ranked second only to Jokic, and he established himself as Nikola’s undisputed offensive wingman by averaging 21.3 points per game in the postseason.

Murray is a valuable contributor and deserves the green light. However, his net rating is far below where it should be.

A bit of defensive improvement would help the squad attain a better point differential when he’s on the floor. Because quite frankly, Murray was a huge liability on this end last season, posting the team’s third-worst defensive rating (108.0).

6. Monte Morris: 4.3 Net Rating

Monte Morris makes smart choices, knocks down shots, plays savvy defense, and rarely commits turnovers. At sixth-best overall, his net rating is about where you’d expect it to be after last season’s surprisingly effective campaign.

Offensively, he runs smooth pick-and-rolls, scoring or diming teammates with proficiency. Defensively, he’s decent, especially considering he was practically a rookie last year.

He could be starting if not for Murray affront him, but it’s nice to know Denver has one of the league’s better backups at the point.

7. Malik Beasley: 3.9 Net Rating

Beasley made huge strides last season, as he knocked down 40.2 percent of his attempts from deep. He also proved himself an excellent fill-in starter, averaging 15.9 points per game while shooting 55.1 percent in 18 starts.

While he should continue to be an impact scorer, Beasley is another guy whose defense tanks his net rating. He often gets lost on the weakside and would be well-served to study film in preparation for 2019-20.

Nonetheless, his stats show a player deserving of a significant bench role.

8. Torrey Craig: 3.3 Net Rating

Torrey Craig’s numbers are a bit cattywampus, as he often fluctuated between playing high and low minutes last season. His defense is an absolute positive for the Nuggets, and he stymies the likes of Russell Westbrook and Damian Lillard.

Offensively, however, he’s a bit hard to play, as he shot just 29.2 percent from deep in 37 starts.

Craig’s ranking says he should be in the rotation. However, he’d probably start at small forward if he developed a consistent shot.

9. Mason Plumlee: 3.2 Net Rating

Plumlee posted a decent 2018-19 and is strong on the defensive end. Many believe he’ll be fazed out, however, as Denver will likely play Millsap and Grant in backup center minutes. This would be smart according to the net ratings.

In the age of versatility, Plumlee is far too limited offensively, which could ultimately lead to his demise with the Nuggets. He’s perhaps the latest victim of style evolution, joining Dwight Howard and Carmelo Anthony as players who have lost stock in this fashion.

There will always be 10 minutes per game available for Plumlee, but the price tag is very high for him to contribute in this fashion. Consider him a leading trade-deadline candidate.

10. Will Barton: 0.6 Net Rating

There’s no joy in kicking Will Barton after a tough season, but the net ratings got it right. Barton’s combination of serious injury and a new role drug him into a horrendous 2018-19, where he looked incredibly shaky on both ends.

His 11.5 points per game was a four-point decrease from the prior season, and his 40.2 field-goal percentage was the product of a confused attacker. On the other end, his 109.1 defensive rating finished dead last on the roster.

The best course of action for Barton is to a) acknowledge last season’s shortcomings, b) regain full health, c) willingly accept a bench role, and d) be ready to kill it with more touches in 2019-20.