Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokic in-depth projections for 2019-20

What must Denver Nuggets’ superstar Nikola Jokic accomplish in 2019-20 to contend for the NBA’s Most Valuable Player award?

Last season, the Denver Nuggets‘ No. 2-seed finish shocked the league, during which time Nikola Jokic snagged his first All-Star appearance and made the All-NBA first team. Welcome to 2019-20, where he’s no longer Denver’s well-kept secret.

Jokic led the Nuggets’ offensive efforts last season, averaging 20.1 points, 10.8 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game. He managed to keep teammates happy and defenses off balance, neither of which is easy in today’s NBA.

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Once the playoffs hit, Jokic elevated his play, averaging 25.1 points, 13.0 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game. His playoff performance was matched only by Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant, and the national media finally noticed his existence.

Seeing that Jokic was a playoff MVP-candidate, and opposing defenses often perform best in the postseason, there’s no reason he can’t retain this heightened level of play in 2019-20. This isn’t his style, however, as Jokic would rather share the spotlight and keep teammates happy.

So how does such an unselfish player take the next step forward? Check out these projections, as we break down Jokic’s 2019-20 season:

Stat Projections:

2019-20 projections: 21.7 points, 11.0 rebounds, 8.1 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.7 blocks per game, 51.3 field-goal percentage, 34.5% 3-point percentage, 83.2 free-throw percentage

2018-19 stats: 20.1 points, 10.8 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.7 blocks per game, 51.1 field-goal percentage, 30.7 3-point percentage, 82.1 free-throw percentage

Scoring:

Jokic could average 24-25 points per game, but he’ll likely never do so, instead opting to dime teammates for scoring opportunities. Despite this, he should see a bump from last year. He’s projected to average 21.7 points per game in 2019-20.

Jokic learned the importance of assertiveness, as Denver’s worst loss came in his timid dud against the Memphis Grizzlies. He scored just four points on 0-of-1 shooting, as the Nuggets lost 89-87 in the season’s worst offensive output.

On that note, many of Denver’s performances were dictated by Jokic’s scoring. Check it out:

When Jokic…

• Scored 28 points or better: Denver’s record was 9-2
• Made 9 or more field goals: Denver’s record was 23-9
• Scored 10 points or less: Denver’s record was 5-5
• Made 0-1 field goals: Denver’s record was 0-3

It’s a delicate balance. Jokic knows he must pose a scoring threat, yet his strength lies in making teammates better. His goal will involve both facets, each with its own precise volume. Don’t underestimate the difficulty here.

Look for Jokic to continue his pinpoint facilitating, while also getting buckets himself. Last season, he learned to identify team-wide scoring slumps and increase his own points during these stretches.

Passing:

From a passing standpoint, Jokic is already among the game’s elite facilitators. Is it folly to say he could still improve?

Jokic will continue to master the tenancies of teammates, while improving his passing reads. Even elite distributors like Steve Nash better their mental skills as they mature. Further experience also helps develop congruency with teammates.

Similar to the scoring correlation, Denver’s success was also dictated by Jokic’s passing numbers. Check it out:

When Jokic…

• Recorded 10 or more assists: Denver’s record was 18-3
• Recorded 4 or less assists: Denver’s record was 9-10

In reality, little will change for Jokic on the facilitating end. His passing will become even more intelligent, resulting in a slight assist increase for 2019-20.

Jokic is already one of the game’s best dishers, and his playmaking fuels the Nuggets’ offense. He’ll likely go down as one of the game’s best passing big men, and next season is just another segment of the journey.

Defense:

Defensively, Jokic made strides, as last season’s defensive rating (107.5) and steals (1.4 per game) were his best in three seasons. His pickpocket numbers aren’t a coincidence, as his hands are deceptively quick.

Jokic’s one-on-one defense showed improvement last season, and he demonstrated the ability to body scorers down low. His size makes it tough for offensive players to maneuver around him. He should make another small jump as a one-on-one defender in 2019-20.

His lack of athleticism renders him a poor helpside rim protector, however, and his slow feet cause problems on the pick and roll switch. Expect a small improvement in each facet, but this could spell a weaknesses in the upcoming season.

Consider Jokic an average overall defender in 2019-20.

Rebounding:

From a rebounding standpoint, Jokic is better than his athleticism would suggest. His size, timing and positioning is elite, and he should take another small stride this season.

He averaged 13.0 rebounds per game in the playoffs, which demonstrates his glass capabilities in high-minute situations. He averaged 3.9 offensive boards per game, which ranked 3rd among postseason performers.

Without strong athleticism, Jokic will likely never compete for the rebounding title. He’s certainly a capable board man, however, as shown in the playoffs.

Shooting:

Overall, Jokic shot 51.1 percent from the field last season, which was a career high.

Per Basketball Reference, he hit 69.1 percent at the rim, proving himself a solid finisher. His shooting touch is soft, as he knocked down 48.8 percent from between 3-and-10 feet, and 50.4 percent from 10-16 feet.

His 3-point percentage dropped to 30.7 percent, nearly a 9 point decrease from 2017-18.

For 2019-20, his overall shooting percentage may climb slightly, as he continues to perfect the passing-shooting balance. Meanwhile, his 3-point numbers should eventually return to form, as last year was a struggle from deep.

Because Jokic is such a willing passer, bad shots are few and far between. His feathery touch and wise shot-selection will always result in effective shooting percentages.

Overall:

It’s hard to imagine any groundbreaking changes to Jokic’s game, as he’s already strong in many areas.

Nonetheless, it’s reasonable to expect slight increases in each category. The 2018-19 playoffs was a great showcase of Jokic’s talent, and he’s demonstrated dominance when needed.

As he balances his own stats with load management and teammate involvement, expect an exciting season from the Serbian.

Meanwhile, Nuggets fans, look for Jamal Murray projections soon to follow.