2019 NBA free agency: Predicting where the top free agents will land

Kawhi Leonard: Los Angeles Lakers

A bit of a shocker, to be sure, but it’s not as impossible as it sounded just a few weeks ago, when the Toronto Raptors were winning their first ever title. While the reigning NBA champs have put together as strong a case as possible for re-signing Kawhi Leonard, other forces are converging that could very well make him a one-year rental when all is said and done.

For starters, the L.A. buzz is very real. While most of it has surrounded the Los Angeles Clippers, and not the Los Angeles Lakers, that might change in the wake of the revised Anthony Davis trade. Not only is AD still coming to join LeBron James, but the Lakers will now have max cap space after shipping Moritz Wagner, Isaac Bonga and Jemerrio Jones to the Washington Wizards.

Between that move and Davis waiving his $4 million trade kicker, the Lakers will have $32 million in cap space.

Maybe it’s the promise of Space Jam 2 money, or maybe it’s LeBron sacrificing his jersey No. 23. But more than likely, Davis doesn’t agree to write off $4 million — in conjunction with the news of the revised trade, no less — unless he’s convinced it can be put to good use with another All-NBA caliber player.

The timing felt even less coincidental once Yahoo! Sports‘ Chris Haynes reported the Lakers would indeed secure a meeting with the Klaw:

Maybe that was always Leonard’s plan, but until Thursday, it had been a two-team race between the Clippers and Raptors. Now the Lakers can legitimately enter the fray, offering him the opportunity to create the greatest Big 3 the league has ever seen. That has to give him second thoughts, at least.

Signing Leonard would be a major blow in the depth department, since the Lakers would basically have to round out their roster with veteran minimum contracts. Good luck convincing anyone to feel sorry for a team with LeBron, AD, Kawhi and Kyle Kuzma though.

The Clippers have the potential to sign Kawhi and another max-level player (like Jimmy Butler?), which would not only make them his team, but also allow him to continue competing for titles. The Lakers have more star talent, but the Clippers have been the more functional organization for years. Perhaps creating an unfair Lakers super-team where he’s not “the guy” doesn’t appeal to Kawhi.

The Raptors also have to be considered as strong favorites in this race, since, you know, they just won a freaking NBA title. They could easily run it back next year with the league being so wide open, and they can offer Kawhi the most money with a long-term deal. He could even opt for a “1+1” contract with Toronto, leaving the door open for next summer.

At the end of the day though, Toronto was not where Kawhi Leonard originally wanted to be. His feelings toward his surroundings changed, but he wanted (and probably still wants) to be in Los Angeles, where the Lakers may have just surpassed the Clippers as the most attractive situation — front office chaos and all.

If Kawhi is giving the Lakers a meeting, he’s at least somewhat considering them as a legitimate option. Unless he has a hard time with playing alongside LeBron James, or worries about what the creation of this super-team will do to his image, it’ll be pretty hard to turn down a chance to play with the King and the Brow without even having to take a discount.