2019 NBA Draft: Top 5 boom-or-bust candidates

1. KZ Okpala, F, Stanford

Height: 6’9.5” | Weight: 210 | Age: 20

Kevin Porter Jr. may be a riskier pick than KZ Okpala, and thus fit the definition of a boom-or-bust prospect better, but Okpala’s two-way ceiling is simply a far superior player to the idealized scorer Porter could become. Crazier? Okpala is not even a lock to be taken in the first round, and very well may be the last guy taken of the five in this article.

Despite playing two years at Stanford, Okpala is still all projection at this point, but what a projection it is:

He can comfortably guard 1-4 and offensively he has the athleticism and handle to at least be a secondary creator in the NBA (if things go well). While Okpala’s sophomore numbers were solid, albeit unspectacular — 16.9 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game — he showed great improvement from his freshman to sophomore years.

He ended the season in a bit of a slump, but his dribble, court awareness and shot all took noticeable steps forward. When inspecting his terrific size, 6’9.5” with a nearly 7’2” wingspan, he starts to look like a late-blooming Brandon Ingram offensively.

Okpala improved his 3-point percentage from 22.6 to 36.8 percent between seasons, and decreased his turnover percentage from 19 to 15.6 percent despite a jump in usage rate from 22 to 27.3 percent. Even if his all-around numbers don’t draw angels from the heavens, all the stats supply evidence to the eye test that Okpala got much better. At Stanford. With a bad team around him.

If arguments can be made for R.J. Barrett’s game to translate to the NBA better when he has floor-spacing despite the fact that he was playing with three other future NBA players, we can do the same for Okpala. Imagine how good he can become in time with NBA players around him. The dude was playing on a terrible Stanford team that couldn’t even finish above .500 in the pathetic Pac-12.

Okpala doesn’t yet have an extended history of high-level production, but he has the versatility, the athleticism and the proof that he can massively improve to make him a tantalizing boom-or-bust guy, especially since he will likely not go top 20.

Best-case scenario, Okpala turns into one of the best wings in the league, a poor man’s Kawhi Leonard who can defend anyone on the perimeter while providing efficient scoring on the other end. Outside of the consensus top seven or eight players in the 2019 NBA Draft, KZ Okpala may have the highest ceiling, and that upside comes without the extreme out-of-the-NBA type downside that other boom-or-bust guys like Bol Bol and Kevin Porter Jr. have.