Orlando Magic: What comes next if Nikola Vucevic leaves?

Should Nikola Vucevic sign elsewhere this summer, what position will that leave the Orlando Magic in as they continue building towards contention?

By far the most pressing matter for the Orlando Magic this offseason is what to do with center Nikola Vucevic. An All-Star for the first time last season, he was their best and most consistent player, even if he did fade into the background during their brief playoff run.

His career year deserves close to a max deal, and with the core the Magic already have in place, it is entirely possible they decide to give him one to see how far a group of Vucevic, Jonathan Isaac, Aaron Gordon, Mohamed Bamba and Markelle Fultz can go. If they stutter, they now have enough young players with upside to work out some trades down the road too.

But what if the Magic don’t offer him another a contract to stay? Just how much trouble would they be in, at least for the short-term, without the fantastic production he showed on the court last season? It may not actually be as bad as one might think, even if Vooch has worked his way into the conversation of top 10 Magic players in franchise history at this point.

Beginning with the offensive end, where Vucevic had the most impact last season, and there would have to be some readjustments. Head coach Steve Clifford built his game plan around Vucevic’s soft touch, great eye for a pass and nifty footwork around the basket. His improved 3-point shooting only helped open up the court for his teammates too.

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Vucevic’s 3.8 assists per game were not only a career high, but vital in keeping the ball moving out of the post to open shooters such as Gordon and Terrence Ross. Unsurprisingly, his fifth double-double average in seven seasons in Orlando (20.8 points and 12.0 rebounds) featured career and team highs in both categories.

The Magic ranked 11th in 3-point shooting percentage at 35.6 percent, a real improvement on years gone by. The 36.4 percent Vucevic shot helped this number, and unsurprisingly, was a career high (not including the 37.5 percent he posted in his rookie season with the Philadelphia 76ers, when he only took eight shots from deep).

The league is 3-point crazy and Vucevic has thrown his name among the list of stretch-bigs. Should he leave, the Magic will struggle to replicate that with other guys. Despite all of this positivity though, the Magic ranked 22nd in offensive rating (108.1). In Vucevic’s defense, they did have a better offensive rating (109.7) when he was on the court.

Defensively, the Magic looked great on some nights, ranking eighth in the league with a rating of 107.5. Although Vucevic has been ridiculed for his defensive displays in previous years, Orlando was actually even better when he was on the court, posting a defensive rating of 105.6.

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Clifford deserves some credit for creating a system where even Vucevic could turn in good numbers on the side of the ball where he’s weakest, but the player should get his due too. He had higher level defensive players around him, but Vucevic elevated his game to the point that he was an average rim protector who wasn’t baited into getting off his feet as often as before.

All of this combined to give Vucevic the ninth-highest Player Efficiency Rating (25.5) in the entire NBA during the regular season, a fantastic achievement worthy of making him an All-Star. He was crucial to everything the Magic did well.

Illustrious names like Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and Damian Lillard all ranked below Vucevic in PER. With Vooch clearly the man in Orlando, you would think the team’s failure to re-sign him to a new deal would be disastrous, but this is not the case. In fact, it actually may be better if the Magic let him walk.

Should they bring both him and Ross back — Ross makes a lot of sense to return as their sixth man — they will have little financial flexibility to do anything else. Vucevic has been beyond a loyal servant to the franchise, putting up big numbers when they were bottom-feeders year after year.

As a 28-year-old center, just how much better is he likely to get? Enough to warrant continuing to build around him? The smart answer here would be no. The young core the Magic are building looks like it has the flexibility to continue to grow without him. Vucevic’s talents put a ceiling on how good the team can become, and that ceiling is likely a first round exit in the playoffs.

With Isaac, Bamba, Gordon and Fultz, plus whatever other players they can put around them, the potential to be even better is clearly there — at least, enough to let Vucevic walk so that cap space can be used elsewhere to fill out this intriguing roster.

Another reason the Magic would ultimately be fine without Vucevic is because of the players they’ve drafted, and stumbled into, that populate their frontcourt. Isaac is more of a stretch-4 than a center, but is capable of playing there when the team opts for smaller lineups against certain opponents.

Bamba looked slight and easily pushed off his spots in a rookie season that was cut short by injury, but it looks like he’s been spending time in the weight room this summer. He is thought of as the future of that center position anyway, and finding more playing time for him with Vucevic also in the rotation would be a difficult proposition.

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To add to their surprising depth at the 5, Khem Birch was a revelation once Bamba went down, and was one of the key pieces in the Magic’s run to the playoffs. They had a defensive rating of 102 when he was on the court, and he was the energetic, rim-running big off the bench who came to personify the identity the organization created. He absolutely must be brought back next season, and if Vucevic were gone, it would make the frontcourt situation a lot clearer.

We’ve seen plenty of guys before step it up a level in contract years, only to regress back to their previous state once they’ve been paid. In theory, it wouldn’t even really be a problem if Vucevic did this, because the offense could still orbit around him and he would put up big numbers next to better teammates.

The problem is he would most likely be doing it as a max player, which is money the Orlando Magic just cannot afford to plunge into a player who doesn’t figure to get much better or look capable of taking them to the next level himself.

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If anything, his worrying no show in the playoffs was more proof that addition by subtraction and letting Nikola Vucevic sign elsewhere is the correct move to make. Not only will the organization be fine, but it will also become a better team down the road. The Magic will be able to pursue different free agent targets and continue building the team the way this front office has tried to since taking over.

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