Denver Nuggets: Scoring projections for 2019-20 starters
By James Siegle
The Denver Nuggets boast one of the NBA’s highest-octane starting lineups. Here’s how each player projected to score the basketball in 2019-20.
The Denver Nuggets enjoyed a deadly offense for the past several seasons, despite their playoff drought leading up to 2018-19. Last year was no different on the attacking end, as Denver finished seventh in the NBA with a 112.1 offensive rating.
The formula for success revolves around All-Star center Nikola Jokic, who dishes to teammates at an unprecedented level for a seven-footer. The tricky Jokic is surrounded by a slew of offensively savvy guards who blend outside shooting with athletic drives to the cup.
The squad secured a surprising two-seed in the Western Conference and was a mere four-point loss from facing the Golden State Warriors in the conference finals. They’ll look to build upon this in the coming season.
Denver is special because scoring comes from multiple sources, varying game-by-game. Its superstar prefers to assist teammates and share the spotlight. This creates a trickle-down effect, leading to a rare team-first attitude in the locker room.
Let’s break down the starting five and project individual scoring for 2019-20:
Point Guard: Jamal Murray
2018-19 Scoring: 18.2 points per game
2019-20 Projection: 19.6 points per game
As the season progressed, Jamal Murray became Nikola Jokic’s undisputed scoring wingman. The offense shifted from its previous cutting style to a more traditional pick-and-roll between Murray and Jokic in the postseason. This worked nicely, as Denver sits second among 2018-19 playoff teams with a 113.3 postseason offensive rating.
The pinnacle came in the Portland Trail Blazers second-round series, where Murray averaged a sizzling 23.6 points per game. His regular season scoring average jumped 1.5 points from 2017-18, and his trademark inconsistency leveled out a bit. It’s natural that he should take another step forward in 2019-2020, increasing his scoring and becoming a consistent threat to take over games.
Shooting Guard: Gary Harris
2018-19 Scoring: 12.9 points per game
2019-20 Projection: 15.6 points per game
Harris struggled mightily this past season, as he missed 25 games due to various injuries. His loss of explosiveness, combined with the rise of Murray, dropped him a full 4.6 points per game from 2017-18. His field goal percentage also fell to 42.4 percent last year, compared to nearly 50 over the prior two seasons.
Harris took a turn for the better in the playoffs, averaging 14.2 points while throttling top guards defensively. His scoring should make a recovery next year, hopefully resurrecting his trademarks of impressive scoring volume and efficiency. Harris will always be paramount to the offense, but Murray’s rise has rendered Harris the third option in 2019-20.
Small Forward: Will Barton
2018-19 Scoring: 11.5 points per game
2019-20 Projection: 13.1 points per game
Similar to Harris, Will Barton missed 39 games with a devastating core injury that proceeded to hamper his athleticism throughout the season. Combine this with his difficult new role in the starting lineup, and last year was somewhat of a train wreck for Barton. The coaching staff believes in his abilities overall, but 2019-20 will need to a rebound story for Barton.
He’s a great rim-attacking threat and heats up faster from deep than any Nugget not named Jamal Murray. Barton’s game is more suit for a sixth man scorer role, but it’s exciting to fathom the starting lineup once he’s healthy and integrated. Expect a rise in Barton’s scoring next season as his health fully recovers.
Power Forward: Paul Millsap
2018-19 Scoring: 12.6 points per game
2019-20 Projection: 12.0 points per game
Paul Millsap’s minutes could be slightly tapered next year to keep him healthy for the playoffs. At 34 years old, he’s still a wonderful two-way threat, even if his athleticism has dwindled a bit. His best offensive efforts still proved stellar last year, as he averaged 17.4 points per game in the Portland series.
Nuggets Final Report Card: Paul Millsap proved his worth this season — but is his future in Denver? | by @HarrisonWind https://t.co/gZGOTTb47b
— DNVR Nuggets (@DNVR_Nuggets) June 4, 2019
Millsap will chip in buckets, blending with Jokic offensively while continuing to quarterback the defense. He’ll still be relied on for post scoring, but is likely the fourth option offensively. Millsap isn’t worth his $30 million team option, but the two parties are expected to agree upon a cheaper multiyear extension this offseason.
Center: Nikola Jokic
2018-19 Scoring: 20.1 points per game
2019-20 Projection: 21.7 points per game
Jokic officially broke through the mold and became a full-fledged superstar this past season. In his first career playoffs, he averaged a stunning 25.1 points, 13.0 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game, leading the squad in MVP-worthy fashion. He even stole the All-NBA first team center slot, something of a surprise for the league.
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If Jokic wanted to average 24-25 points per game, he certainly could. This isn’t his style however, as the low-key Serbian loves to make teammates happy and share the spotlight. His 7.3 assists per game in 2018-19 led centers, and this number is projected to increase next season. Denver’s ceiling is high, and there’s much excitement around Jokic in the coming years.