Los Angeles Lakers: 2019 NBA Draft Lottery odds

The Los Angeles Lakers are hoping to rise above their station in the NBA Draft. What are their odds going into the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery Tuesday night?

The Los Angeles Lakers were never supposed to be involved with the proceedings Tuesday night. The NBA Draft Lottery is for those teams without the talent and execution to be in the playoffs. With LeBron James on the roster, the Lakers sending a representative to the lottery was going to be a thing of the past.

Instead, injuries, matador defense and chemistry issues galore held the Lakers back from their postseason dreams. Rather than James and the Lakers’ name emblazoned on his chest being a part of second round playoff highlights, he is left providing commentary in the analytics community while other teams play.

Over the past few days a Lakers team in disarray has begun to put its house in order, hiring Frank Vogel to be the team’s next head coach and Jason Kidd to be his top assistant. General manager Rob Pelinka can now afford to turn his attention more fully to the upcoming 2019 NBA Draft — one significantly more important than he or the franchise could have imagined.

Pelinka faces a lot of pressure this summer. The team and its fans expect him to pull in a marquee free agent to pair with James, as well as reshuffle the veteran rotation to better play alongside them. He also will try to reignite the trade talks with New Orleans and their new top basketball executive David Griffin to see if Anthony Davis can still be brought to Laker Land.

This draft selection will be a major component in those trade discussions. Currently, the pick sits at No. 11, where it will stay if the lottery stays true to form. While talented players have come out of that slot before — Reggie Miller, Klay Thompson, Derek Harper — a leap into the top-four would be even more valuable.

The Lakers have a two percent chance to leap up to the first overall pic — a slim but certainly existent shot. What is new under the updated lottery odds is that instead of a 2.9 percent chance at jumping up to the top three, Los Angeles will have a 9.4 percent chance at the top four.

• No. 1: 2.0%
• No. 2: 2.2%
• No. 3: 2.4%
• No. 4: 2.8%
• No. 11: 77.6%
• No. 12: 12.6%
• No. 13: 0.4%
• No. 14: 0.0%

It is most likely that the Lakers will land with the 11th pick, and their odds at the 11th or 12th pick are over 90 percent combined. In that range they would have a number of options for good players: perhaps Jaxson Hayes or Johntay Porter at center, Darius Garland or Coby White at point guard, and Kevin Porter Jr. or Keldon Johnson on the wing.

Yet that 9.4 percent chance opens up a host of possibilities. Landing a franchise star such as Zion Williamson would completely change the narrative around this team, and opposing teams would be rightfully terrified of stopping the combination of LeBron and Zion in the open court. Other top talents such as Ja Morant and R.J. Barrett would also be around in that range.

Draft experts seem to be suggesting this is a draft with a steep drop-off after Williamson, and perhaps another drop-off after Morant and/or Barrett. The rest of the lottery is a choose-your-flavor collection of players, meaning there is both great uncertainty and great value to be found. Staying at No. 11 would not the end of the world.

Having the option to get a more “sure thing” player is even more enticing. If the Lakers leap into the top-four, they may keep the pick and add another young piece, but this is a team with a 34-year old superstar starting to age out of his prime. They need to win now. They have James (and new head coach Frank Vogel) for only three seasons.

That is why the most likely outcome for the Lakers if they can jump into the top-four is to add the pick to their trade offer to New Orleans. Would the possibility of Williamson or Morant be enough to put their offer over the top? Middling seasons for Jayson Tatum and Kevin Knox (ammunition from other suitors) might have negated the loss in value for players such as Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram on the Lakers.

A trade for Davis is still probably a long shot, but a top pick makes it more likely to go through. Even if Davis goes elsewhere, a higher pick provides value without taking any away. Jumping up in the lottery is better than staying put. While 9.4 is not a high number, it’s still within the realm of possibility.

Many across the league will throw up their hands if the Lakers find more lottery magic, as they have so many times across the years. Yet no matter what happens Tuesday night, it will be up to Rob Pelinka and his staff to make something happen with the selection. This is a team that need to make it past game 82 next season. The pressure is on.