New Orleans Pelicans: 2019 NBA Draft Lottery odds

With the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery on Tuesday night, here is what the New Orleans Pelicans can expect with their first round pick.

After a turbulent season that saw the franchise finish with its worst record in the last three seasons, the New Orleans Pelicans are hoping for some good fortune during the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery. While the team may currently be entering the draft with just one first round pick, there is plenty of reason to be excited.

If it feels like the Pelicans are typically absent on draft night, it’s because they are. Their pick this year will mark their first selection in the first round of the NBA Draft since 2016, and will be just their third first round selection since taking Anthony Davis and Austin Rivers in 2012. If New Orleans had to choose one year to hold onto its pick, it chose the right one, at least.

All their woes throughout the season may pay off for the Pels if the odds work in their favor once the ping pong balls start falling. With an expected average position of 6.2, according to ESPN, New Orleans is all but a lock to pick within the top 10 of the draft. The Pelicans’ pick falling into the top five may be a little more of a long shot, with only a 31.9 percent likelihood. The team working its way into the top three of the draft has a 23.4 percent likelihood.

New Orleans and new Executive Vice President of Basketball operations David Griffin won’t have to be as lucky as other teams further back in the lottery odds, but with only a 7.5 percent likelihood of landing the first overall pick, they will need at least a little luck.

• 1st: 7.5%
• 2nd: 7.8%
• 3rd: 8.1%
• 4th: 8.5%
• 7th: 19.7%
• 8th: 34.1%
• 9th: 12.9%
• 10th: 1.3%
• 11th: 0.0%

Despite some high variance in where their pick could potentially fall, the Pelicans are absolutely one of the early beneficiaries of the revamped draft lottery that went into effect this year. With the goal of curbing tanking efforts, the first four picks in the draft are now ordered by the lottery as opposed to the first three in the previous structure.

This adjustment also flattened top overall odds for the worst three teams, giving an equal 14 percent shot to each rather than stratifying the three like in the previous format. The ripple effect from this change boosted the chances for teams in the middle of the lottery, like the New Orleans Pelicans. With the new structure in place, their shot at the top pick is more than doubled and their chance to land within the top five rose by 17 percent.

Once the lottery has concluded, New Orleans’ plans for its first round pick will be easier to determine. While the Pelicans will have a very easy decision to make if they wind up with the first overall pick (hello, Zion Williamson), and the second- and third-best prospects may be pretty clear in Ja Morant and R.J. Barrett, the outcome of the remaining top 10 picks are more of a gray area.

If the Pelicans work their way close to the front of the draft but outside the top three, and end up picking 4-6, players like Jarrett Culver, Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter provide valuable options. With the current makeup of the team constituting a need for quality wing players, this would not be a bad outcome for New Orleans.

Even if the Pelicans aren’t as lucky and end up selecting in the 7-10 range, there are still plenty of answers for this team. If the previously mentioned players are off the board, small forwards like Sekou Doumbouya or Romeo Langford offer young wing talent on draft night. The front office would have options outside of wing players if they weren’t in love with those names, too. Guards Darius Garland and Coby White are viewed as lottery-caliber guards that could bring help to the Pelicans.

Of course, there are always other routes available to the team. Much of their draft-night plans will hinge upon Anthony Davis’ future with the team. If David Griffin can convince Davis to stick around, it wouldn’t be farfetched to see New Orleans flip its lottery pick for a proven NBA player that can provide an impact immediately.

However, if Davis is out the door, the team could always package some of the assets it gets in return from dealing its superstar to move up in the draft and try to lock in the next franchise player.

Obviously, this team has plenty to sort out this offseason as it looks toward the future. The Pelicans may not be able to start forging a path yet with so much up in the air, but once the dust settles following the NBA Draft Lottery on Tuesday night, the New Orleans Pelicans will have their work cut out for them.