Miami Heat: 2019 NBA Draft Lottery odds

The Miami Heat will find out where their draft pick will be in the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery on Tuesday. Unfortunately, the odds are against them to pick first.

In the 2018-19 college basketball season, Duke’s Zion Williamson stole the show. His unbelievable athleticism and thunderous dunks grabbed everyone’s attention. Tuesday night in Chicago, the basketball world will find out which team will be lucky enough to land the first overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. Come June, Williamson will almost certainly be a member of that team. Among those teams praying for ping pong balls is the Miami Heat.

This draft will be one of the most important drafts in recent Heat history. As they prepare for a new era after Dwyane Wade‘s retirement, finding a high-quality player could accelerate their rebuild.

The Heat finished the season tied for the 12th-worst record in the league at 39-43. Due to losing a tiebreaker to the Charlotte Hornets, Miami received the 13th-best odds in the lottery. Here are the odds for all the possible picks Miami could receive in the draft:

• 1st: 1.0%
• 2nd: 1.1%
• 3rd: 1.2%
• 4th: 1.4%
• 13th: 90.6%
• 14th: 4.6%

Overall, it doesn’t look great. Miami has only a 4.7 percent chance of moving up in the draft. On the flip side, it only has a 4.6 percent chance at moving down a spot. Had Miami won the tiebreaker, it would’ve had the same odds at picks 1-4, but with an 86.1 percent chance at the 12th pick, 9.0 percent chance at the 13th pick, and 0.2 percent odds for the 14th pick.

The highest the Heat have ever picked is second overall, which occurred in 2008 when they selected Michael Beasley. They’ve picked fourth overall once (Glen Rice in 1989), fifth overall twice (Steve Smith in 1991 and Wade in 2005) and 14th overall once (Bam Adebayo in 2017). Miami has never picked first, third or 13th overall.

Recent draft history

The Heat’s draft record in the Pat Riley administration (2009-now) is rather unimpressive. Since 2015 they’ve only had three picks but made the most of them. Justise Winslow (2015, 10th overall), Josh Richardson (2015, 40th overall), and Bam Adebayo (2017, 14th overall) are all promising players that are still on Miami’s roster. Aside from them, Miami has little to show in terms of drafted players.

This is because Riley traded away several picks from both rounds. They were used in sign-and-trades with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors to acquire LeBron James and Chris Bosh. Although those picks forged one of the greatest and most hated teams in league history, Miami whiffed on several second round selections.

Ultimately, it would not affect the franchise that much, as the Big 3 led Miami to four straight Finals appearances, including two winning efforts. Still, Riley threw second round picks around like they were water balloons. Rather than try to find/develop supporting pieces for James, Wade and Bosh, the front office used them as assets to trade for players.

Riley’s first draft pick was Marcus Thornton, who was taken 43rd overall in 2009 and finished his career with averages of 11.6 points per game on 35.8 percent shooting from 3. He was traded on draft night for two second round picks. One was used to draft Jarvis Varnado, who played eight total games with Miami and 37 total in the NBA. The other was part of the package used to acquire LeBron.

The next draft saw the Heat take Dexter Pittman 32nd overall. Hassan Whiteside and Nemanja Bjelica were taken shortly after. Although Whiteside would eventually end up in Miami, they missed out on the sharpshooting Bjelica. Pittman spent his two and a half years in Miami bouncing in and out of the D-League.

In 2011, the Heat traded their second round pick, Bojan Bogdanovic, for Norris Cole. They traded their 2012 first round pick, Arnett Moultrie, for Justin Hamilton and two second round picks that were used to acquire Toney Douglas. They traded their two 2014 second round picks, P.J. Hairston and Semaj Christon, for Shabazz Napier. The 2014 Final Four Most Outstanding Player was traded for a pick that did not convey after a mediocre rookie season.

2019 prospects

All those trades bring us full circle to 2015. Winslow, Richardson, and Adebayo are the foundation for the future in South Beach. The Heat need to hit on their 2019 pick to secure a quality young core. Although Winslow has shown some promise at the point guard, Miami should still heavily consider finding a quality guard if it can’t get Zion. If none are available that the Heat like, they should add another wing player.

Williamson is the consensus No. 1 pick, with Murray State’s Ja Morant and Duke’s R.J. Barrett likely going second and third (although not necessarily in that order). Murray has incredible explosiveness and playmaking abilities, while Barrett has the potential to be a lethal scorer off the wing.

There is some speculation at who could go No. 4. Texas Tech’s Jarrett Culver projects to be a solid wing on both sides of the ball and Duke’s Cam Reddish has shown potential to be a really good scorer with his outside jump shot and ball-handling. Should Miami elect to find its future point guard, its should strongly consider UNC’s Coby White and Vanderbilt’s Darius Garland.

The options at No. 13 aren’t as clear cut. The Heat could opt for a solid scoring wing such as Indiana’s Romeo Langford or Kentucky’s Tyler Herro. Or, they could opt for UNC’s Nassir Little, who projects to be a more balanced wing that plays well both ways. If they’re looking for another big man, they should look in the direction of Oregon’s Bol Bol and Missouri’s Jontay Porter. Both are skilled big men that would fit well alongside Adebayo.

Wherever they end up, this draft can be huge for the Miami Heat. They owe a lot of their future picks going forward, including their 2021 first-rounder. It would be incredible if Williamson were to fall in their laps at No. 1, but the odds are not in their favor. They should prepare to draft at No. 13, where the options are less clear-cut.