In an exciting matchup between two powerhouses in the Eastern Conference, the Toronto Raptors have clear advantages across the board in the second round of the 2019 NBA Playoffs.
The Eastern Conference semifinals tip off this weekend with two series that have been anticipated since the preseason. While the Milwaukee Bucks’ and Boston Celtics’ best-of-seven is a coin flip in terms of talent and coaching ability, the Toronto Raptors have clear advantages across the board over the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Raptors and 76ers met four times during the regular season, with Toronto winning three of them by 17, 11 and 12 points, respectively. The lone Philly win came when Toronto rested Kawhi Leonard and Serge Ibaka. The Toronto wins came before the Tobias Harris trade, and the first one happened before Jimmy Butler was in Philly, but it goes beyond regular season dominance and full rosters with these matchups skewing towards the North.
One of the keys to beating Philadelphia is countering its massive size in the starting lineup. Ben Simmons, Butler, Harris and Joel Embiid are all at least 6’8”, so head coach Brett Brown usually searches for cross-matchups to post up Simmons or others against smaller teams. Unfortunately for Philly, Toronto is equally massive.
Danny Green is 6’6” and Kawhi is 6’7”, but they’re two of the strongest and best perimeter defenders in the NBA. Pascal Siakam is 6’9” and another versatile defender to throw at Philly’s trio of large wings. During the two matchups they all played, Butler scored 38 points and 18 points, and Simmons scored eight and 20 points, respectively.
Toronto made the trade for Kawhi and Green for the playoffs, giving the roster that defensive prowess to match up with the dominant wings in the East and beyond. There is no head-to-head matchup that favors Philly when it’s on offense unless Kyle Lowry is switched onto one of the three wings, and even then, Lowry has a strong lower base and battles in the post. Philly doesn’t have enough floor-spacing for help not to come when Lowry is isolated.
Lowry or Green will likely take their turns chasing J.J. Redick off screens, giving them diverse looks to contest his shots. Green has the size to get a hand up even if he is slow battling through screens, and Lowry has the quickness to get underneath Redick.
While Toronto’s perimeter defense is outstanding, its ability to limit Joel Embiid will be the main factor in slowing down the Sixers. The Raptors have struggled to do so this season. Embiid’s numbers in the regular season against Toronto were 26.3 points per game on 49.3 percent shooting from the field.
These numbers came from feasting on Serge Ibaka, a player he dwarfed in strength. Serge hasn’t started a game this postseason, and likely won’t with Marc Gasol getting the nod as head coach Nick Nurse rotates his starting five according to their opponent. Gasol is coming off a series where he held All-Star Nikola Vucevic to 11.2 points per game on 36.2 percent shooting from the field.
Despite being injured, Embiid is a different beast compared to Vuc, but Gasol held his own in their two matchups while the Spaniard was with the Memphis Grizzlies. Embiid scored 15 and 14 points in those games, shooting 28.6 percent from the field. Gasol may not be the elite defensive player he was a couple seasons ago, but against a big with limited mobility that will try and outmuscle him in the paint, there are few better defenders than Big Spain.
This is just on the defensive side of the floor where the matchups skew towards Toronto heavily. Offensively, Kawhi will always get his numbers and is the best player in the series. Philly struggles with smaller guards, and while Lowry isn’t as quick as he used to be, any penetration he gets will open up passing lanes for open shots for their spread offense.
Danny Green will move around the perimeter and spot up, so he won’t need attention. But with the emergence of Siakam being able to put the ball on the floor, does Philly have enough defense to stop him, Kawhi and Lowry? Embiid is an elite shot-blocker, but Gasol and Ibaka hover around the 3-point line, which will bring JoJo away from the basket and limit his defensive impact.
Playoff basketball is all about matchups and star power. Toronto has the edge in both of those categories on top of home-court advantage. The Raptors match up exceptionally well with Philly defensively and have the type of spread offense with a quick, small point guard that causes the 76ers problems.
Between the two Eastern Conference semis, this one looks more likely to end early. The 76ers are an entertaining team with an awesome group of personalities, but the Toronto Raptors have the clear advantage in the lineups that will start and likely close games on both ends of the court.