Indiana Pacers: Evaluating Aaron Holiday’s rookie season

In 45 games this year, Aaron Holiday has seen limited minutes, but has been productive for the Indiana Pacers. The advanced statistics show how valuable he can be.

Aaron Holiday is the third of the Holiday brothers trio, and the youngest after Jrue Holiday of the New Orleans Pelicans and Justin Holiday of the Memphis Grizzlies. At 6’1″, he’s also the shortest of the three, but that doesn’t mean his potential is any more limited.

The Indiana Pacers drafted Holiday this year with their lone first round pick, 23rd overall, and in the 45 games he’s played, he’s averaged 5.5 points per game on 39.8 percent shooting. He’s logging a tame 11.6 minutes per game, but on a guard-heavy team, it’s not outrageous that he hasn’t seen a lot of time on the court, yet.

The Pacers still have some time to test the waters with his minutes, but Holiday had some promising moments in last year’s NBA Summer League games, including this eight-point run that he calmly executed on his own.

During Victor Oladipo‘s initial knee soreness, which sidelined him for eight games earlier in the season, Holiday earned the trust of the coaching staff with some increased playing time in November and December.

"“He did his job, and he did it well,” coach Nate McMillan told the IndyStar of Holiday’s minutes, as Oladipo was gearing up to return. “When a guy goes down or someone is in foul trouble, he has to be ready to step in and play. He was ready to do that.”"

Holiday’s five consecutive double-digit scoring games and a +10 total plus/minus over that stretch helped show he was ready.

Overall though, Holiday’s minutes outside of the November-December window he filled in for Oladipo have been interspersed in close games, and more abundant in blowout wins or losses. Taking a deeper look at his statistics in the time he has played reveals that Holiday could be a promising backup, or even starter, in the coming years.

In the 19 games where Holiday has played 14 or more minutes, he’s scored double figures in 14 of them. The Pacers haven’t been on the losing side of too many blowouts this year either, so it’s good to see that Holiday is pitching in when the team is winning games.

Putting his numbers as a potential starter into perspective, Holiday averages 17 points, 4.6 assists and 4.1 rebounds per 36 minutes. That’s almost six more points per game than current starter Darren Collison, although Collison splits minutes with Cory Joseph.

For what it’s worth, Holiday’s 87.8 percent shooting from the free throw line ranks him 10th overall among the rookie class this year, which could be a worthy statistic if he pans out to be the aggressive scoring guard that his brother Jrue has become. His size could make him a liability on the defensive end, given how the point guards around the league are getting progressively bigger. But there hasn’t been enough evidence to show how he fares against bigger guards this season.

At this point, Aaron Holiday can only hope to maximize what remaining minutes he has before the lineup shortens come playoff time. He’s been relatively efficient and is respected enough by the coaching staff and organization to have not done stints in the G League. When rumors surfaced about a potential Holiday trade during the deadline, general manager Kevin Pritchard took to his personal Twitter account to defend his rookie.

Maybe the higher-ups have eyes on Holiday as their point guard for the future after all.