Hoops Habit
Fansided

Philadelphia 76ers: History not on their side come playoff time

BySimon Smith|
PHILADELPHIA, PA - MARCH 15: Joel Embiid #21 and Ben Simmons #25 of the Philadelphia 76ers look on during a game against the Sacramento Kings on March 15, 2019 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - MARCH 15: Joel Embiid #21 and Ben Simmons #25 of the Philadelphia 76ers look on during a game against the Sacramento Kings on March 15, 2019 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)

As currently constituted, the Philadelphia 76ers will be going up against history as it pertains to traveling deep into the postseason.

You don’t have to be a genius to work out that the Philadelphia 76ers are in win-now mode as it relates to the upcoming postseason.

With the blockbuster acquisitions of Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris, the Sixers have clearly compiled one of the most talented starting lineups in the league, with the starting five of Ben Simmons, J.J Redick, Joel Embiid, Butler and Harris posting an outstanding +15.7 net rating in their brief time together.

However, as a whole, the Sixers have somewhat underwhelmed this season. Granted, their current 47-27 record is slightly ahead of their 44-30 mark at the same point last season. Unfortunately for the Sixers, history strongly indicates that their current output does not bode well as it relates to traveling far in the postseason.

Currently, the Sixers are ranked 11th in the league with a +2.9 net rating. Despite their increase in the win column, this falls far short of their +4.5 net rating from last season, which ranked fourth overall. The greatest reason for this has been their decline on the defensive end of the floor. While last season they ranked third with a defensive rating of 103.8, they’ve dropped to 11th this season with a 108.5 rating. In particular, it has been the manner in which the Sixers have been cut up by opposing backcourts.

A perfect way to illustrate this is via the Play Index on Basketball-Reference, which contains statistical data dating back to 1946-47. According to Basketball-Reference for players listed strictly as a guard, here is the difference between 2017-18 and this season as it relates to containing the opposing backcourt:

Number of 30-plus point games from opposing guards:

With eight games still remaining, this is certainly an ominous sign, especially when you consider the Sixers are 9-15 this season when an opposing guard scores at least 30 points. Furthermore, these 24 games represent the highest amount in the league, with the Atlanta Hawks being second with 19 games.

However, it’s their aforementioned net rating that poses an ominous challenge. Dating back to 2000-01, just one team has advanced to the NBA Finals having ranked outside the Top 10 in net rating: the 2017-18 Cleveland Cavaliers. Furthermore, there’s been just one other team in that time frame that has made the conference finals having finished outside the Top 10 in net rating: the 2011-12 Boston Celtics.

Each of these, however, came with a major caveat. For the Cavaliers, it was simply the presence of LeBron James, who ultimately would advance to an incredible eighth consecutive Finals appearance. As for the Celtics, they were a veteran-laden team featuring several future Hall-of-Famers who were competing in their fifth consecutive postseason as a squad, and were thus prepared to take on the challenge of the postseason.

Granted, the Sixers still have eight games remaining to drag themselves into the Top 10. However, they’re going to have to ramp up their current level of play several notches. For the month of March, the Sixers rank 10th in offensive rating and 15th in defensive rating, thus resulting in them ranking 14th in net rating. As a result, they have posted just a 7-5 record thus far in March.

Currently third in the Eastern Conference standings, the Sixers are poised to again enjoy home-court advantage in the first round of the postseason, an enormous edge considering they are 29-9 at home this season.

However, with a starting lineup that has played just nine games together as a whole, and a bench unit that ranks 30th in points per game for the month of March, the Sixers have both history and current form against them as they head into their second straight postseason.