Sacramento Kings: Where Marvin Bagley stands in Rookie of the Year race

Marvin Bagley’s ROY Chances

One year before he was drafted, as he was graduating high school and preparing to move on to Duke, Bagley was heralded alongside Michael Porter Jr. as the best players in the upcoming draft class.

In college, Bagley averaged an impressive 21.0 points and 11.1 rebounds per game on a stacked Duke roster that narrowly lost to Kansas in the NCAA Tournament. While Porter’s draft stock plummeted due to a back injury, Bagley was still considered a top prospect and no one was surprised when he was selected second overall.

His per game averages measure up handsomely to his rookie peers. In only 24.5 minutes (11th among rookies), he is fifth among rookies in scoring at 14.0 points per game and third in rebounding at 7.1 per game. His advanced numbers are also near the top of all first-year players. He sports a PIE of 12.5 (third of all rookies who have played 45 or more games) and a true shooting percentage of 57.2. He has a meager VORP and BPM of -1.3 and 0.2, respectively.

The verdict

While his averages rank near the top among his rookie peers, Bagley will have a very difficult time separating himself from the competition with the few games left in the season. If he were to somehow pull out the ROY win, it would almost purely be recency bias. Since Jan. 22, Bagley has notably increased his numbers to 16.9 points and 8.8 rebounds per game while significantly hiking up his free throw percentage from 70.2 to 79.0 percent.

In the much more likely instance that Bagley loses the award to one of his competitors, it will be due to three main factors: inconsistency, missed time and a loaded draft class. He hasn’t been given a consistent amount of playing time all season, which hindered his opportunity to fill the stat sheet in games where he played less than 10 minutes.

The amount of missed games may end up being the nail in Bagley’s coffin. Of the 14 rookies selected in the lottery, he ranks 10th in games played. He has aggravated his left knee twice and has missed a number of games each time.

To conclude, Bagley more than likely won’t win the Rookie of the Year award. Trae Young and Deandre Ayton have been solid all season, but Luka Doncic has consistently been the frontrunner and has instilled hope in Mavericks fans in the imminent post-Dirk Nowitzki era. Despite the odds, Bagley has still compiled a nice Rookie of the Year campaign and is sure to be a staple of the Kings’ frontcourt for years to come.