Cleveland Cavaliers: How has Zion Williamson’s stock changed following injury?

A few weeks ago, Zion Williamson appeared to be the Cleveland Cavaliers’ top prospect. Should he still be the most coveted player on their draft board?

The odds are, relatively, in the Cleveland Cavaliers‘ favor to win the NBA Draft Lottery and select Zion Williamson as the No. 1 overall pick. As long as this 17-51 team finishes in the bottom three, there’s a 14 percent chance it’ll select first.

The Cavs have picked first three times since 2010. Clearly the lottery gods favor Cleveland.

That’s why Cavs fans and the rest of the basketball universe held its collective breath when Zion Williamson crumbled to the hardwood, clutching the back of his right knee in the first minute of the first game this year between two of basketball’s biggest rivals.

Even though he is expected to play in the ACC tournament, Williamson hasn’t competed a minute since Duke battled North Carolina on Feb. 20. Should Cleveland knock him a down a peg on its draft board?

Certainly, there are worthy replacements at the top. Well, there’s one. Fellow Duke freshman R.J. Barrett, who was actually ESPN‘s top high school prospect last year, is exceeding expectations. Barrett is averaging 23.4 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game. He’s the fastest Duke player to score 700 points and set the ACC record for most 20-plus point games as a freshman.

Barrett would be the bona fide top pick almost any other year. This season, however, Zion’s otherworldly aura overshadows him. From the colossal dunks to blowing through his own shoe, Williamson has achieved something of mythological status. But with health questions surrounding Williamson, is Barrett good enough to make the Cavs think twice about Zion?

Aided by more games played, Barrett’s total numbers will naturally best Williamson’s by season’s end. His per game averages are also better. Barrett is scoring 1.8 points more than Zion (21.6), while averaging 2.0 more assists per game (2.2). Zion’s 8.8 rebounds are better than Barrett’s aforementioned 7.5 per game.

But Zion’s advanced metrics clobber those of his Duke teammate. His effective field goal percentage is is a whopping 70.5 percent, compared to Barrett’s 51.1 percent. His Player Efficiency Rating of 42.3 (!) nearly doubles Barrett’s (24.1), and in five less games, Williamson’s 6.5 win shares are significantly higher than Barrett’s 5.6.

The disparity is likely explained, in part, by Williamson’s superior shooting consistency. Yes, he’s unstoppable at slashing to the rim and creating easy scores. But what makes Zion unique (besides his 280-pound frame and ability to jump out of the gym) is his willingness to be a rugged rebounder. His physicality on the offensive glass leads to so many put-backs, like when he gobbled up four offensive rebounds in the first half against Pittsburgh here.

Cleveland might feature those most dynamic rebounding trio in the league if Williamson joins Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson in the frontcourt.

Secondly, Zion dominates on defense with 2.2 steals and 1.8 blocks per game. Barrett isn’t even averaging one block or steal per game.

Zion’s 84.5 defensive rating is the 35th-best since the 2009-10 season, and fourth-best this season. Only a handful of the players on the list even competed in the loaded ACC. None of them was on Duke, and only one (DeMarcus Cousins in 2009-10) averaged more than 15 points per game. He scored 15.1 per contest. Zion is averaging 21.6 points a night.

Barrett is a fine offensive player and, yes, Cleveland needs plenty of help scoring. The team is 28th in points per game. But it desperately needs a defensive stopper as well. Zion checks off both boxes.

While an injury itself probably can’t increase a player’s value, a team’s performance without said player can. Think back to middle school science class. You’d (*trying to pretend like I know what I’m talking about) control variables in experiments when you tried to figure out, you know, science-y stuff. And when you left out one ingredient in your paper volcano, and the thing didn’t explode, you probably realized that the variable you controlled for was pretty important because of its absence.

Including the nightmare night against North Carolina, Duke is 3-3 without Williamson. The team has scored less than 75 points in five of those games, something it did only four times in 25 games with Zion.

His absence may be most notable on the glass. Without Zion, Duke is only out-rebounding opponents by about a board per game. With him, that number is closer to seven rebounds per game. Naturally, Duke is struggling to force turnovers sans Zion. The Blue Devils forced just 10 turnovers combined in their first two full games without him.

Duke’s play drops dramatically without Zion Williamson in the lineup — so much so, the team is struggling to remain .500 in games without him, despite rostering three other freshman who cleaned up ACC accolades. To put a bow on an awkward analogy, clearly Zion was the ingredient to make Duke’s volcano explode.

Assuming he recovers well, Zion’s stock with Cleveland actually improved while he sat on the bench in his Nike Duke shirt. Clearly, he should still the Cavs’ No. 1 pick should the lottery be in their favor.