Milwaukee Bucks: Eric Bledsoe extension both a bargain and a risk
The Milwaukee Bucks are rolling over opponents, but they took a break to sign Eric Bledsoe to a contract extension. Here’s why it’s a bargain and a risk
The Milwaukee Bucks are a juggernaut this season, with the league’s best record and the metrics to back that up. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the MVP candidate at the center of their success, but point guard Eric Bledsoe has been a major driver as well.
Recently, in particular, Bledsoe has balled out, putting up a triple-double to defeat the Sacramento Kings and then 31 points to top the Los Angeles Lakers, the second game clinching a playoff berth for the Bucks on March 1. While he was left off the All-Star roster this season his play is firmly in that conversation of high-level starters playing at an All-Star level.
While Bledsoe’s usage is down slightly playing alongside Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, his efficiency is at a career-high. He is providing two-way impact for a team that prioritizes both ends of the court and ranks sixth among point guards in ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus and 19th overall, and 17th in the league in Jacob Goldstein’s Player-Impact Plus-Minus.
Everything Bledsoe — and Middleton, Brook Lopez and Malcolm Brogdon — does this season is in part an audition, as eighty percent of the Bucks’ starting lineup were in line to be free agents this summer. It put a unique kind of pressure on the stretch run; what if this was the last season that group played together?
Some of that pressure was eased Friday, as it was reported that Bledsoe and the Bucks were agreeing to a four-year $70 million contract extension according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.
While teams are always in contact with the agents of their players, this was not an extension publicly thought to be in the works at this point in the season. Generally, the teams working on contract negotiations at this point in the season are those hammering out buyouts, such as the San Antonio Spurs were doing the same day.
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Yet worked on it was, and Bledsoe can now play without the pressure of being a free agent this summer. At 29 he is still firmly in his prime, and the Bucks can turn their focus elsewhere come July and free agency. Bledsoe communicated with this extension that he didn’t want to play anywhere else — a sentiment that makes sense given that he was shipped out of town in Los Angeles and then stuck in basketball purgatory in Phoenix — and a Phoenix hair salon.
This deal from a value-proposition looks like a bargain for the Milwaukee Bucks. After Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker, the free agent point guard class is relatively weak, and there could be a number of teams vying for a starter at the point — including the Phoenix Suns, Orlando Magic, Chicago Bulls and potentially others.
Locking up Bledsoe now means the Bucks don’t risk him leaving for another team, and they can plan based off of his cap hit for a busy summer. That cap hit, just over $15 million to start, is almost certainly less than Bledsoe would have commanded on the open market. The going rate for a top-50 guy who can be relied upon as a two-way starter? Those guys make at least $20 million on the open market.
Milwaukee also locks him in for a number of seasons, which means even as the cap goes up Bledsoe’s percentage of the cap will go down. That frees this team up to avoid the luxury tax down the line even if they re-sign every part of their elite core. It would not have surprised anyone if Bledsoe signed a four-year, $100 million deal this offseason. Instead, he’ll be making significantly less than that for a Bucks team with less uncertainty moving forward. It also means their investment in trading for him last season is even more validated with him sticking around.
Yet this is not a slam dunk move for the Bucks. There are a few ancillary concerns — Bledsoe will be 30 next season, he has an injury history and the team has a young point guard in Malcolm Brogdon having a career year — but the main one is the postseason.
Last year Bledsoe was positively torn up by Terry Rozier and the Boston Celtics in the first round of the playoffs. His play in the regular season for the Bucks has been undeniable, but his only postseason play was inconsistent and defensively he was taken advantage of again and again. The Bucks are now a team that needs to weigh postseason success more highly than most. Can Bledsoe step up when the lights are brightest, or will he be a liability once again?
That’s a question that cannot be answered in February and March. The discount the Bucks got will have to be enough to balance out that risk. If Bledsoe is not a “16 win player” as Draymond Green would say, the Bucks will be held back from their loftiest goals. That doesn’t mean a better option was out there, or that the Bucks could have brought him in if there was. But it is a means of blunting the enthusiasm that should otherwise be present with the extension.
Eric Bledsoe is having an incredible season for a Bucks team playing at an all-time level. He is now guaranteed to ply his trade alongside Antetokounmpo for years to come. Given the success of this season, that’s something for Bucks fans to be quite pleased about.