NBA recap: One-and-done rule, Blazers’ potential and more

Is this Portland Trail Blazers team different than years past?

In a competitive Western Conference, the Portland Trail Blazers are one of four teams to make the playoffs the last five seasons, along with the San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors. The Blazers are comfortably in this year’s field, only a game behind the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 3-seed.

The Blazers are always cast off as a regression candidate before the season starts and they continue to play off their two star guards and make the postseason. Reaching the playoffs is usually a positive for teams, but since they’ve been swept in the first round in consecutive seasons, you rightfully wonder if they’re built strictly for the regular season.

For comparison, the Blazers are three games ahead of last year’s pace after 60 games. Their points per game and points allowed have both increased, which aligns with the increase in pace and attempted 3-pointers everywhere in today’s NBA.

Even their players have very similar stat lines. The team’s top four scorers and minutes leaders from last season have stayed the same. Damian Lillard’s stat lines 60 games into last season are scarily identical to this season and show how consistent of a player Dame has been. Outside of their top four, the only new rotation players are Jake Layman, Rodney Hood, Seth Curry and the recently signed Enes Kanter.

With so much carryover from last year’s sweep to the New Orleans Pelicans, how much is different with this team, and why should anything but another early exit be expected? First off, last year’s matchup with New Orleans’ hyper-speed small-ball was the worst possible opponent for Rip City. NOLA had two excellent defensive guards and Anthony Davis at the 5, which gave Jusuf Nurkic no chance.

Fast forward to this year’s conference outlook and there is nobody out West with two elite guard defenders that can stifle Dame and CJ McCollum. Next, there doesn’t appear to be a small-ball 5 that will force Nurkic off the court in the West, and he boasts the best defensive rating of any player in Portland that plays over 17 minutes per game.

The guards will always be guarded by an opponent’s top two defenders, so that isn’t new. But keeping Nurkic on the court is the key for this team. He is perfect for Dame and CJ in the pick-and-roll, is a solid mid-range shooter, has great touch and feel for the game, and remains a beast in the paint. With not many matchups out West forcing him off the floor, this could be the Trail Blazers’ year to be dangerous in the postseason.