Miami Heat: Their decline by the numbers and the road ahead

Here’s an overview of the woes that have engulfed the Miami Heat in recent weeks, and their outlook prior to the upcoming All-Star break.

Following their 112-108 win over the Memphis Grizzlies on Jan. 12, the Miami Heat found themselves with a 21-20 record and in sixth place on the Eastern Conference standings. This marked a noticeable turnaround for the Heat, who stumbled badly out of the blocks on their way to a 7-13 start.

Unfortunately, things have again gone south since that win over the Grizzlies. After their latest loss, 95-88 at the hands of the Indiana Pacers, not only did this mark their seventh loss in their last 10 outings, it dropped the Heat’s home record for the season to a diabolical 11-16. In the process, the Heat now finds themselves clinging onto the eighth spot in the standings, with their schedule only about to get even tougher.

However, it’s been the past 10 games that have truly put the Heat’s season into a tailspin. During this stretch, here’s how the Heat have fared in some of the more notable statistical categories:

• Points per game: 97.9 (30th)
• Turnovers per game: 17.9 (29th)
• Rebounds per game: 44.3 (20th)
• 3-point percentage: 32.0 (26th)
• Offensive rating: 101.1 (29th)
• Fastbreak points per game: 9.6 (28th)

Clearly, the main thing that stands out here is their performance at the offensive end of the floor. In six of the past 10 games, the Heat have failed to score 100 points, with three of these games failing to break the 90 point mark. Aside from starting point guard Goran Dragic, the remainder of the Heat’s core rotation have been available to play during this time, with four of the 12 available performing in all 10 games. As head coach Erik Spoelstra stated following the loss to the Pacers:

"“We’re looking for collective consistency.”"

In what has been a gradual development, Josh Richardson has continued to struggle to repeat his early season form. Over his first 21 games of the season, Richardson took the league by storm in averaging 20.5 points per game while converting at a 41.4 percent clip from 3-point range in 6.9 attempts per game. However, in this recent 10-game stretch, Richardson averaged just 14.0 points per game while shooting at a 35.2 percent clip from long range.

Another player who has struggled in a different way has been forward James Johnson. Having started the season late due to offseason hernia surgery, Johnson has taken some time to regain his overall touch and game conditioning. However, with 35 games now under his belt, Johnson’s season thus far has been a real disappointment.

Over the past 10 games, Johnson averaged just 5.8 points in 22.5 minutes per game while shooting at a 38.6 percent clip. Considering Johnson has played all but two of his games as a starter, the Heat are perfectly entitled to expect more from a player owed $14.4 million this season, and whose deal runs through the 2020-21 season.

In dropping their past three games in a row at American Airlines Arena, the Heat now face possibly their toughest stretch of the season, heading out west to take on five formidable Western Conference opponents before concluding their road trip by taking on the Philadelphia 76ers.

However, if the Heat can at least break even on this upcoming trip, it should help somewhat ease their minds and put them in good stead when the season recommences after the All-Star break.