Charlotte Hornets: The hidden impact of Cody Zeller

Cody Zeller has been sidelined due to injury for the fourth year in a row. How important is his presence to the Charlotte Hornets?

You never want to see your team lose a player to an injury, but at least this year the loss of Cody Zeller won’t be as long as it was last year for the Charlotte Hornets. Zeller has yet to play a game in 2019 as he ended 2018 with a fracture in his right hand.

This is the fourth time in four years that Cody Zeller has missed playing time in January and or February during a season. In 2015-16, it was six games due to a sprained shoulder. He missed 17 games in 2016-17 but the longest stretch of missed time occurred in during 2017-18.

Surgery on his right knee caused him to miss half of December and all of January. He got back on the court in February, but was shut down for the rest of the season after 14 games.

Keeping Zeller healthy has proven to beneficial to the Hornets in the win column the last few years. In 2016-17, the team notched a 33-29 record with him on the court, but only manged a 3-17 record without him, his first full season as a starter.

The organization brought in Dwight Howard in 2017-18, pushing Zeller back to the bench. They didn’t fare well with or without Zeller last season, posting a 14-19 record with him and 22-27 without him.

Zeller is hurt yet again in the month of January, and the Hornets lost five of the first six games they played without him. The good news is that Zeller is should be expected back on the court very soon according to Rod Boone of The Athletic.

The Hornets did right the ship after an ugly road trip without Zeller and but finished January with a 6-8 record, the team’s first month of the season with a record below .500. But just how deep has the loss been for the team?

If we look at the team’s on/off court splits (from NBA.com), we see that the team’s turnover and shooting percentages take a dip without Zeller, and this includes when he was healthy.

With him, the Hornets only have a 11.8 turnover percentage, but that jumps to 13.0 percent when he is off the court.

The team’s 3-point shooting, their bread-and-butter early in the season, falls from 37.2 percent to 34.8 percent when Zeller is not on the court.

Even more stark is the team’s effective field goal shooting percentage (which factors in 3-pointers), which dips from 53.8 to 50.6 when he is off the court.

These numbers have led to the team putting up 111.5 points per game before Zeller was lost to injury to 105.3 points per game since losing their big man. They’ve also allowed 112.4 points per game since losing Cody, which is up from 111.1 points per game when Zeller was playing.

The advanced stats don’t look much better for the team either. Pre-injury, the Hornets had posted a 111.4 offensive rating (according to NBA.com), a top-10 mark in the league and a 108.8 defensive rating, right in the middle of the league.

However, without Zeller, their offensive and defensive ratings live in the bottom third of the league, which are worse than the young Atlanta Hawks over the same time period.

Their offensive rating has dipped to 106.7 (nearly a five-point drop) and their defensive rating has jumped to 113.0. On top of the team’s struggles, the replacement for Cody Zeller has been a surprise as well.

In the 15 games since Zeller went down, 14 of the 15 starts have gone to one player, Bismack Biyombo. Willy Hernangomez got the nod in the first game without Zeller, but it has been Biyombo got the starts ever since, with Hernangomez remaining in his backup role.

Biz has gotten at least 15 minutes of playing time in all but two games in Zeller’s stead, a big jump considering he was inactive for most of December. In these 13 games without Cody, he’s put up 10 or more rebounds in five games and has even posted three double-doubles.

Willy Hernangomez has seen a 3.2-minute increase per game while remaining the backup, but hasn’t increased his peripheral stats much.

His scoring has only increased from 7.4 to 8.0 points per game, but has seen an increased role, putting up double-digit points on four occasions since the calendar flipped to 2019.

He’s put up a couple of his best games (according to Basketball-Reference’s Game Score) since Zeller has been out, including an 11-point, 16-rebound game on Jan. 17.

There have been small increases across the board on a per-minute basis for Marvin Williams, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Miles Bridges as well, but their production hasn’t changed all that much with Zeller sidelined.

While the thought at first was that we would see a trickle-down effect of the entire roster, Borrego has essentially plugged in Biyombo for Zeller.

While the team has suffered as a whole, the situation could benefit the Hornets before the trade deadline. If Biyombo takes a back seat again when Zeller gets back, he has had a chance to showcase himself to potential trade suitors if the Hornets find one.

If not, they know there is good depth at the center position — and we haven’t even mentioned Frank Kaminsky yet.

Zeller’s return could come at a perfect time for the team as they are barely hanging on to a playoff spot.

Biz and Willy have filled in on the defensive end, grabbing more rebounds, but the little things that Zeller does with his spacing, and spreading the ball around, has caused the Hornets to hit a bit of a funk, making him a valuable piece as the team pushes for their first playoff berth in three seasons.