Detroit Pistons: Is Stanley Johnson an NBA Draft bust?

The Detroit Pistons used a top-10 NBA Draft pick on Stanley Johnson four years ago. Have they gotten their money’s worth yet?

What is an NBA Draft “bust,” and does Detroit Pistons forward Stanley Johnson deserve that label? The answer is that there is no definitive answer.

As a descriptor, “bust” belongs right next to terms like “two-way player,” “true center” and “pure point guard” as parts of the basketball lexicon that are commonly used but impossible to pinpoint. That’s because they are subjective terms for which everyone who follows the game has their own definition and criteria.

Dodging or deserving a label of draft bust is almost always an exercise in expectations. The better you are expected to be, the more you have to do to avoid being called a bust.

If you’re the No. 1 overall pick, you’re probably expected to be a franchise-saving superstar. If your career peaks as a solid starter with a decade-long career that doesn’t include any All-Star Game selections (think Joe Smith), you might be labeled a bust.

On the other hand, a second round pick could be washed out of the league before turning 23 years old (think Joe Crawford) and may not get that same title. Why? Because the expectations were already low for them.

When the Pistons chose Johnson with the No. 8 pick in the 2015 NBA Draft, the freshman out of Arizona was burdened with high expectations. The same school that produced Andre Iguodala and Richard Jefferson appeared to have cranked out another explosively athletic wing who could be a difference-maker on a good team in the league.

Johnson had a solid rookie season that he capped with a standout defensive performance against LeBron James in the first round of the 2016 NBA Playoffs. He didn’t lock LeBron up or anything, but Johnson stood his ground and defended LeBron about as effectively as you could ask of a rookie going up against an all-time great on that stage. The Pistons were swept in that series by the eventual NBA champions, but their future — and Johnson’s future — looked bright.

Now Johnson is midway through his fourth pro season, and it looks like neither he nor the Pistons have gotten any better.

Johnson averaged 8.1 points and 4.2 rebounds per game as a rookie, mostly coming off the bench for 23 minutes a night, shooting 37.5 percent from the field and 30.7 percent from 3-point range.

This season, Johnson is averaging 7.8 points and 3.7 rebounds, mostly coming off the bench for 20 minutes a night, shooting 39.2 percent from the field and 27.0 percent from 3-point range.

Johnson is playing for his second head coach in the pros — he had Stan Van Gundy for three years and now Dwane Casey — and both of them have believed in his ability and potential. Shortly after Casey was hired by the Pistons last summer, he said Johnson is the best defensive matchup for LeBron in the league.

It appears Casey, like Van Gundy, wanted to hand Johnson the starting small forward job, but Johnson (again) didn’t play well enough to secure it. He started his first seven games this season, but was soon replaced in the lineup and has been coming off the bench ever since.

For a former top-10 draft pick to become a backup doesn’t automatically mean they’re a bust — look no further than Eric Gordon or Jason Terry — but it’s also not as if Johnson is contending for Sixth Man of the Year or coming off the bench for a good team.

He might not even make it to the end of the season with Detroit. With the Feb. 7 trade deadline approaching, Johnson’s name has popped up in a few rumors.

Johnson’s contract status could be another hint of whether he’s lived up to the expectations for the Pistons. In late 2018, the franchise decided against signing Johnson to an extension on his original rookie contract, which means he’ll become a restricted free agent this summer.

Karl-Anthony Towns, the No. 1 overall pick in Johnson’s draft class, was locked into a lucrative extension by the Minnesota Timberwolves soon after he became eligible. So was No. 10 pick Justice Winslow (Miami Heat), No. 11 pick Myles Turner (Indiana Pacers) and No. 13 pick Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns).

Those three 2015 draftees who were taken after Johnson have become a sore subject for many Detroit fans, for obvious reasons.

That Johnson hasn’t been as good as Booker, Winslow or Turner doesn’t mean he’s a bust, however. Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh haven’t been considered as good as Dwyane Wade throughout their respective careers, but the No. 3 and No. 4 picks in the famous 2003 NBA Draft are not considered busts by any measure, even when compared to Wade, the No. 5 pick.

On a lesser scale, Enes Kanter and Tristan Thompson — the No. 3 and No. 4 picks in 2011 — are not considered busts despite not being as accomplished as Kemba Walker, that year’s No. 9 pick.

Johnson’s NBA career has not been all bad. While his offensive struggles persist, he is still viewed as a solid defender. In a league that needs men with his combination of size (listed at 6’7″ and 245 pounds), strength and quickness to stand in front of elite wing scorers, he will always have a job as long as he can perform those duties.

The best thing working in Johnson’s favor is time. He is only 22 years old and this is only his fourth NBA season. No matter what your “bust” criteria may be, it’s probably too early to make a declaration one way or another with Johnson. The league has seen plenty of late bloomers who didn’t find their niche until they were five or more years into their career.

Pistons fans know a few of those players pretty well, in fact.

Ben Wallace was an unremarkable backup big man who didn’t make a major impact until his fifth season, when he landed in Detroit as a 26-year-old on his third NBA team. Wallace went on to win four Defensive Player of the Year trophies, make five All-NBA teams, and help the Pistons win a championship in 2004.

Anthony Tolliver was just a guy hanging around the fringes of the NBA for seven years until he came to Detroit in Year 8 and helped the Pistons make their most recent playoff appearance in 2016. He then had the best season of his career a couple years later, leading Detroit in 3-pointers made as a valued role player last season.

Wallace and Tolliver, however, were both undrafted underdogs who were never supposed to make it in the first place. Even if they never made an impact in the league, few would call them busts because the expectations for them were not high.

Someone whose situation more closely resembles Johnson is Chauncey Billups.

He was the No. 3 pick in the 1997 NBA Draft, then traded midway through his rookie season with the Boston Celtics. Billups bounced around the league for five years until he went to the Pistons in Year 6. In Detroit, Billups blossomed into an All-NBA point guard who won Finals MVP for the 2004 championship team. His jersey was recently retired by the franchise, and he has a decent shot at making it to the Hall of Fame.

Stanley Johnson doesn’t have to put together a Hall of Fame resume to avoid a “bust” label — unless your criteria is especially unforgiving — but by most accounts, he does have to do better than what he’s been doing, and do it sooner than later.

By my standards, I would say it’s too early to call Johnson a draft bust, but he has been a letdown so far. Johnson can still carve out a nice NBA career for himself. The pressing question is will that happen with the Pistons, or with another team?