Houston Rockets: Season still hinges on Chris Paul

As well as the Houston Rockets may be playing right now, any shot they have at competing for a championship will heavily rely upon the play of Chris Paul.

After a disappointing start to the 2018-19 season, the Houston Rockets have crept right back into the thick of the Western Conference playoff picture, sporting a 25-19 record that has them slotted in as the 5-seed.

Houston’s level of success has been due mostly to the production level of James Harden. Over the last 20 games, the reigning MVP is averaging 41.2 points, 8.8 assists and 7.1 rebounds per game. Ridiculous doesn’t even begin to describe what he’s doing on the basketball court during this stretch.

Harden’s historic play has been a result of an unfortunate set of circumstances, namely the injury to backcourt buddy Chris Paul, who’s been out nearly a month after straining his left hamstring early in a game against the Miami Heat.

Since that time, Houston has lost just five times over a 14-game stretch, thanks in large part to the play of both Harden and center Clint Capela, who was averaging a career-high 17.6 points and 12.6 rebounds before requiring surgery on his right thumb that will keep him out until after the All-Star break.

As great as the Rockets have been so far without their other Hall of Fame floor general, we’ve seen this story play out before. Harden is great during the regular season, but the over-reliance placed upon him during those 82 games burns him out come playoff time, and the Rockets are eliminated unceremoniously.

Harden’s usage rate currently sits at a league-leading 40 percent, second most of all-time. For some perspective, Russell Westbrook holds the record for highest usage-rate in a single season at 41.7 percent, which was achieved during his 2016-17 MVP season and ended with him shooting just 38.8 percent from the field in the Oklahoma City Thunder’s five-game first-round exit against the Rockets.

It is for this exact reason general manager Daryl Morey went out and acquired CP3 in the first place two summers ago — to take some of the ball-handling responsibilities away from Harden in the hope it would lead to improved play when it mattered most.

As we saw last season, that philosophy nearly worked. If not for an injury to Paul’s hamstring in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals, there is a very high chance the Rockets sit here today as the reigning NBA champions.

Aside from fatigue issues, the Rockets also need Paul healthy and on the court for strategic reasons as well. If he’s not available once the playoffs begin, opponents can and will take the ball out of Harden’s hands and make those around him beat them. Despite his struggles, a guy like Eric Gordon can maybe make them pay. Others like Austin Rivers and Gerland Green can’t, at least not on a consistent enough basis.

At 33 years of age, there will always be concerns about Paul’s ability to stay healthy over a prolonged period of time. Having said that, the NBA is a star-driven league, and he’s still currently one of best true point guards in the game today when healthy, and a necessary cog to any version of this season that ends with the Larry O’Brien trophy residing in Houston.