As he nears restricted free agency, the Brooklyn Nets have some key decisions to make surrounding Rondae Hollis-Jefferson’s future with the team.
The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the surprise teams of the season. After losing their best player in Caris LeVert and subsequently falling to 8-18, many wrote Brooklyn off as another Eastern Conference lottery team. However, the Nets have been anything but, winning 13 of their past 17 games to climb up to seventh place in the conference.
While the Nets’ future certainly seems bright, that future may be dramatically changed this summer as general manager Sean Marks balances using the team’s cap space to chase quality free agents with the restricted free agency of D’Angelo Russell and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.
While Russell has shown improvement this season, Hollis-Jefferson’s growth has stagnated as the team continues to play well in his absence. Unfortunately, this shouldn’t truly surprise anyone, as Hollis-Jefferson’s style can limit what head coach Kenny Atkinson is looking for his team to accomplish on the offensive end.
Let’s breakdown what Hollis-Jefferson provides on both ends of the floor and what his future may look like with the Nets.
Limited offensive tools in the modern era
The Brooklyn Nets are all in on playing a modern style of basketball. What that really means for them is focusing on getting shots up around the rim and from beyond the arc while limiting their attempts from the mid-range areas.
So far this season, the Nets are 11th in the league in frequency of shots coming at the rim and fifth in the league in frequency of shots coming from behind the 3-point line. Meanwhile, the team is just 25th in the frequency of mid-range shots, which creates a modern shot chart on a nightly basis.
However, with Hollis-Jefferson in the lineup alongside Jarrett Allen or Ed Davis, the Nets’ floor-spacing shrinks by a sizable margin. Defenders can sag off of Hollis-Jefferson when he is standing in the corner or on the wing and help on drives to the rim for players such as Russell and Spencer Dinwiddie.
RHJ is a career 23.8 percent 3-point shooter, so defenses know they don’t have to work to guard him off-ball or rush to contest his shot. Swap him with someone such as Jared Dudley (a career 39.1 percent 3-point shooter) and defenders can’t sag off and help on drives as much, freeing up the lane for the Nets’ guards to attack.
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Hollis-Jefferson used to make up for his lack of 3-point shooting by hitting his mid-range jumpers at a strong rate, but even that has fallen off this season. He has hit just 30.8 percent of his shots from within 3-10 feet of the rim and 31.0 percent of his shots from 10-16 feet of the rim — a far cry from the 37 and 47.7 percent clips he posted in those areas last season.
Couple all of this with the fact that Hollis-Jefferson has never been a strong finisher around the basket (career 58.1 percent from within three feet of the rim, down to 54.4 percent this season) and you understand how limited Hollis-Jefferson is offensively. It’s no surprise that the Nets’ offense has consistently been worse when he’s been on the floor so far in his career.
Finally, while Hollis-Jefferson has shown some capable playmaking skills over the years (he has averaged three assists per-36 minutes in his career), he often puts his head down on drives to the rim and blinds himself from kicking out to an open shooter.
With the Nets often running lineups with one or two primary ball-handlers, Hollis-Jefferson turns into an off-ball shooter stationed in the corner, which defenses can take advantage of.
The statistics support all of this, as Hollis-Jefferson has consistently graded out as a negative on the offensive end of the floor. He owns a career -2.3 offensive box plus-minus (which is down to -3.8 so far this season) and ranks 79th among 90 qualified forwards with a -2.49 offensive real plus-minus.
In the end, it’s no surprise that the Nets’ offense has consistently been worse when Hollis-Jefferson has been on the floor so far in his career.
Falling short of defensive expectations
Hollis-Jefferson showcased a lot of defensive potential in college and in his early seasons in the NBA. With his 6’7″ frame and 7’0″ wingspan, many expected the 24-year-old to be the perfect defender in the modern era.
Now to Hollis-Jefferson’s credit, he has not been a bad defender overall. He has certainly had his flashes of defensive brilliance with his ability to guard multiple positions and use his mobility to adjust to plays as they happen. But overall, his defense hasn’t lived up to expectations and certainly hasn’t made up for his limited offensive arsenal.
The Nets’ defense has been worse with Hollis-Jefferson on the floor during the past two seasons and he owns a negative defensive real plus-minus this year. While he has more physical tools than the Nets’ other options at power forward, the numbers haven’t reflected any additional value that he provides on that end.
Of course, all of the blame can’t be placed on Hollis-Jefferson for the team’s struggles. Even if he was a great defender in his own right, he wouldn’t be able to make up for the lack of strong perimeter defenders on the roster. But for a player who was primarily drafted for his defensive prowess, Hollis-Jefferson hasn’t been able to use his defense to be a positive player overall (see: Roberson, Andre).
Since Hollis-Jefferson hasn’t been able to be a positive defensive player on a consistent basis, it makes it that much more difficult to work around his offensive limitations, which is what the Nets have had to do for several years now.
What does Hollis-Jefferson’s future look like?
The 2019 offseason will be a big one for the Brooklyn Nets. Not only will they go free agency hunting for an All-Star caliber player, they will also have to make tough decisions on the aforementioned Hollis-Jefferson and D’Angelo Russell. While Russell has a very large cap hold over $20 million, RHJ’s cap hold is $7.4 million.
If the Nets are looking to take that next step this offseason, it likely comes with the addition of a floor-spacing 4 (think of a player like Tobias Harris) and another quality wing player. Hollis-Jefferson doesn’t really fit with the Nets’ plans moving forward, especially with how they want to execute their offense.
With that being said, gauging the trade market now for Hollis-Jefferson makes a lot of sense. He can be attached with a second round pick or two to trade for a player that either A) helps the Nets make the playoffs this season and/or B) is signed to a reasonable long-term deal and fits better with Kenny Atkinson’s style of play.
It remains to be seen what sort of interest Hollis-Jefferson will receive in restricted free agency, but the Nets would be wise to explore the trade market now in hopes of landing a player that fits better, or simply clearing his cap hold off the books to open up more space.
The Nets should only bring Rondae Hollis-Jefferson back this offseason if it is on a relatively cheap deal. Given his limitations, he doesn’t figure to be a key contributor on the next great Nets team, making it a priority for Sean Marks to either trade for or sign wings that fit better with this current Nets team.