Phoenix Suns: Kelly Oubre Jr. proving to be a great fit
The Phoenix Suns have a plethora of young wings to develop, but new arrival Kelly Oubre Jr. is already proving to be a great fit.
Between Devin Booker, T.J. Warren, Josh Jackson and Mikal Bridges, the Phoenix Suns seem to be all set on the wings. It’s what made the Trevor Ariza signing so surprising at first, and it’s what called Kelly Oubre Jr.’s potential fit into question with his new team.
However, through his first few weeks in Phoenix, Oubre is quickly proving to be a great fit on both ends of the floor, and his stay is one the Suns should explore extending beyond this summer.
In 11 games so far, Oubre has averaged 11.9 points and 3.1 rebounds in just 24.7 minutes per game, shooting 44.2 percent from the floor and 37.2 percent from 3-point range. Those numbers may not leap off the page, but the 23-year-old also needed some time to ingratiate himself with a completely new system and set of teammates.
Tuesday night against the Sacramento Kings, Oubre looked more comfortable than ever, submitting perhaps the best game of his four-year career. In 30 minutes, he tied a career high with 26 points, five rebounds, four assists, three steals and one block, going 9-for-15 from the floor and 3-for-6 from 3-point range.
"“I just think me being decisive, that was a good thing for me tonight,” Oubre said. “Finally just getting more comfortable out there, finding my spot out there on the floor, finding ways to impact the game in this new system. So tonight it kind of came full-fledge for me and we had a good game today.”"
The young wing was relentless in attacking the basket off the bounce, capably spread the floor and even supplied the clutch put-back dunk to put Phoenix up three points with 11.1 seconds left, and effectively icing the game. That highlight reel finish capped off a 21-point comeback and ended the team’s six-game skid.
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"“He got the house rockin’ tonight,” Deandre Ayton said. “There were some shots he hit tonight I was like, ‘Whoa, we need that. We need him.’ You can tell he was just so locked in and ready to play tonight and I was just really proud. How aggressive he was just got contagious.”"
Oubre was a bulldog attacking the rim Tuesday night, and though that tendency has led to its fair share of tunnel vision moments, part of it is simply looking to be aggressive as he gets acclimated to a new and unfamiliar offense as part of the second unit.
"“With that group when he’s on the court, we have multiple ball-handlers and guys who can play multiple positions, so we’re trying to scramble more, move the ball, move bodies,” head coach Igor Kokoskov said. “He fits great in that system.”"
This wasn’t the first big late-game bucket Oubre has contributed during his short Suns tenure, however. In one of their best wins of the season against the Boston Celtics on the road, he knocked down a dagger 3 with 49.9 seconds left to extend their lead to eight.
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Though Oubre comes off the bench, he’s often found himself on the floor in wing-heavy lineups to close out games. It may feel like opportunism to write about the Suns’ newest addition on the heels of his best game yet, but even before Tuesday’s contest, he was posting 10.5 points and 2.9 rebounds in just 24.1 minutes per game.
True enough, 10-11 games is a small sample size, but Oubre is easily posting the best per 36 minutes numbers of his career this season. He’s someone who can forge a path to the basket off the dribble, run the floor and finish above the rim.
Perhaps most importantly, he brings a competitor’s edge to an inexperienced team, lending his versatility, length and out right effort to Phoenix’s lackluster defense.
"“We talked about being solid,” Kokoskov said. “Just don’t gamble. He’s got the length, the size, he covers space, he’s got athleticism. With him, Josh and Mikal, we can cover a lot of space.”"
From blowing kisses to the crowd to doing pushups after turnovers to bringing the smack talk, Oubre has already found himself a cult following in Phoenix. On the court, he’s already making up for the Suns’ decision to give Trevor Ariza a one-year, $15 million contract, since they were at least able to turn that uninterested veteran into a much younger wing with upside.
If Oubre can continue to spread the floor and defend as he’s done through these first couple of weeks, he could find a long-term home with the Suns, who will be able to match any offer sheet for him this summer when he becomes a restricted free agent.
His fit may seem questionable given the hodgepodge of developing wings this team already has. Booker is the unquestioned franchise star, while Warren is enjoying a career year after adding an shockingly efficient 3-point shot to his arsenal.
Bridges is a promising rookie who projects as the exact kind of 3-and-D wing the Suns need to eventually become a competent defense, and though he’s clearly flawed, Jackson brings an alpha mentality, secondary playmaking and hard-nosed defensive effort to the table. It’s still far too early to give up on a former No. 4 overall pick.
However, the Suns have been in familiar territory with a draft bust who was taken fourth in the draft with Dragan Bender. After declining his team option for 2019-20, it’s likely for the two sides to part ways in free agency this summer, meaning Phoenix will lose a former top-five pick without ever trading him for some sort of asset.
Jackson is no Bender, but his value is only appreciating in Phoenix at the moment as he finds his niche off the bench. At this point, Oubre is a better version of what the Suns hoped Jackson would become: a tenacious force attacking the rim, fiery competitor, committed defender and average floor-spacer.
If Jackson fails to show signs of legitimate progress, Phoenix may need to consider trading him before his value depreciates even further and they wind up losing another top-five pick for nothing via another depressing team option decline.
Keeping both Oubre and Jackson to let the former thrive and allow the latter the proper time to develop seems like the obvious route, but it’s worth noting lineups including the three-man wing group of Oubre, Jackson and Bridges have posted a paltry -7.7 Net Rating.
In theory, playing those kinds of wing-heavy lineups is how Phoenix will evolve, swarming opponents with defensive switches and attacking mismatches with Booker, secondary playmaking and spot-up shooters. In actuality, that Oubre-Jackson-Bridges group hasn’t been great together, even though 66 minutes — with most of those coming as Oubre gets comfortable — is a small sample size.
That avenue could get pretty expensive pretty quickly as well. Oubre may very easily command a contract in the $10-15 million range this summer, which might give the Suns pause in matching when Jackson’s $8.9 million team option for 2020-21 is taken into account.
Phoenix would be best off matching such an offer, since Oubre’s contract would likely still be tradable even if he didn’t pan out with this team’s long-term team build, but paying $20 million-plus for two bench players is a stretch — no matter how much defensive havoc they wreak when they check in.
With the Suns’ well-documented need for a point guard and their potential fix likely to come in free agency, shelling out that kind of money for two promising but still flawed wings may not be in their best interests, especially since, at the end of the day, they’re still bench players on a team that regularly finds itself down by 20 in the first half.
With that being said, another solution may be cashing in on Warren’s all-time high trade value, since his poor defense and playmaking instincts make him an iffy long-term fit in Kokoskov’s system.
His ability to create offense for himself is invaluable, especially now that he’s knocking down a staggering 43.7 percent of his 4.4 long range attempts per game, but his tunnel vision is a bigger part of the Suns’ ability to feed Deandre Ayton than Kokoskov’s perceived misuse of the big man.
The numbers don’t lie either, as the Booker-Warren-Ayton three-man lineup as a -7.2 Net Rating in a team-high 589 minutes together. Trading Warren for a starting-caliber point guard, or including him as part of a larger deal, opens up more minutes for Oubre and the team’s defensive-minded wings that are desperately needed to surround Booker with.
For the time being, Oubre’s ongoing four-month trial will continue as the Suns attempt to evaluate which of their emerging wings deserve a place in this long-term revival. The new guy is already proving his value, however, and it would be in Phoenix’s best interests to re-sign him come July — especially since Oubre seems interested in being around for the long haul.
"“I love it, man,” he said. “I’m having so much fun out there with the guys, just having fun at practice, having fun at shootaround. But we’re all serious, focused and locked in on trying to get better, so that’s all I can ask for.”"