Orlando Magic: Imagining a Dennis Smith Jr. trade

The Orlando Magic still have a need for a long-term solution at point guard. Could Dennis Smith Jr. be the answer?

With one quarter of the 2018-19 NBA season complete, it is fair to say that the Orlando Magic have been one of the pleasant surprises so far. At 12-13, they are right in the thick of the early Eastern Conference playoff race.

Questionable losses to quality Western Conference opponents aside, they look capable of being competitive in every game, and first-year head coach Steve Clifford really has them buying into his ideals for the team.

He has also gotten the most out of a roster that is still imbalanced in some areas, though it remains to be seen how long he can continue doing this for. November’s five-game road trip brought with it some positives, but the month of December is just as important.

The main area of concern is at point guard, where veteran D.J. Augustin has run the show admirably so far this year. He’s been really good and also consistent, orchestrating an offense that currently ranks sixth in assists per game (26.2).

Backup Jerian Grant may not have pushed Augustin for that starting role so far, but he hasn’t been a disaster either. He plays hard defensively, and is shooting 35.3 from 3-point range, a career high. There is no question, however, that it would be better to have a long-term solution in place.

Looking around the league, and there is so much quality at the point guard position that you would think there are at least a couple of players that the Magic could inquire about through a trade or think about trying to sign next summer.

When you start to go through each team and their roster makeup and salary sheet however, this becomes more difficult. While it might be great in theory to have a player like John Wall wear the pinstriped blue, a look at what he is owed for the duration of his upcoming contract is enough to make your eyes water.

Which is where second-year player Dennis Smith Jr. comes in. The Dallas Mavericks’ floor general is finding life more difficult this season with the arrival of a supposed franchise savior, Luka Doncic. There’s no question Smith is a talented young player, but there’s reason to think that a trade between the Mavericks and Magic could suit both parties.

Beginning with Dallas, it’s a bubble team in the West’s playoff race. Their other core players of Harrison Barnes, DeAndre Jordan and Wesley Matthews (although he is in the last year of his deal) don’t align with an organization that is happy with heading back to the lottery again next summer.

They also have an owner in Mark Cuban and general manager in Donnie Nelson who have shown in the eight years since winning a title that they are more interested in constantly reloading and going after big-name free agents each summer (without ever actually getting one) than rebuilding from the ground up.

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Even Doncic falling into their laps the way he did fits in with this way of thinking. He is not a conventional rookie in that he achieved so much in Europe before coming over to the NBA, and already plays like somebody who isn’t some way off from drinking legally in the United States.

He’s the kind of player who accelerates a rebuild, which you have to think is what the Mavericks want. It’s also worth considering they gave up their first round pick in 2019, as well as the rights to Trae Young, in order to acquire Doncic. This means they have no incentive to return to the lottery either.

The West may also be as competitive as it has ever been, but with the Golden State Warriors stumbling, the Utah Jazz struggling and organizations such as the Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies flying high, there’s more belief that other teams can begin to break through.

The Ringer‘s Bill Simmons recently broke this way of thinking down on his podcast in conversation with the New York Times‘ Marc Stein. So if the lottery isn’t really an option, what can the Magic do to entice the Mavericks to pick up the phone? Before looking at that, let’s also think about why Orlando would want to part with pieces to get Smith.

The Magic may be in a good place right now, and rocking the boat unnecessarily is always a risk. But Smith aligns better with where the Magic are at right now. They have a second-year player in Jonathan Isaac who is beginning to break out and a rookie in Mohamed Bamba who one day will likely be the starting center.

Forward Aaron Gordon is a veteran by comparison, but he is only 23 years old. Slotting Dennis Smith Jr. in with this up-and-coming core makes a lot of sense. Imagine how well his ferocious style of play would blend with the coaching of Clifford too.

Fans will be less likely to acknowledge this next point, but the Magic still don’t have a clear face of the franchise. It is supposed to be Gordon and on some nights it looks like it is. But center Nikola Vucevic is in the midst of what could be his first All-Star year.

As long as he is around, and it is worth noting that he is an unrestricted free agent next summer, he will be the guy they play through. If Smith joined, however, straight away he would have the potential to be the face of the team, and make for a potent 1-2 punch with Gordon.

He brings that energy and possible marketability to the Magic, while also playing the most well known and celebrated position in basketball today. What then would it take for a deal like this to work?

Matthews has a contract that is expiring next summer, and so too does swingman Terrence Ross. For Ross, however, he is having a career year and with cap space opened up with Matthews coming off the books (as well as Jordan next summer), the Mavs would have an opportunity to sign him to a deal they would hope would be team friendly.

J.J. Barea is one player who has been great for the Mavericks so far this season, but he will be 35 by the time the offseason hits, and will also be an unrestricted free agent. If the Magic sent Ross, Augustin (who will have one year left on his deal after this one) and a draft pick in exchange for Matthews and Smith, would that get it done?

Alternatively, Orlando could send Ross and Vucevic, in theory two expiring deals but two players which could be re-signed at a fair price. In Vucevic’s case, it’d certainly take less than the $24 million Jordan is making this season.

With all of these expiring deals flying about, it would reasonable for the Mavericks to expect something more substantial in the deal. Could the Magic part with a first round pick for this season or next?

It is a lot to ask, but with Orlando attempting to make the playoffs themselves, that pick could fall outside of the lottery. Certainly they hope that it would. The same will also hopefully be true of the 2020 pick.

Which may make them think twice about including it. Certainly a player like Dennis Smith Jr,, after showing considerable promise in his rookie campaign, wouldn’t be available under ordinary circumstances.

But there is already a growing sense that the pairing of Doncic and Smith may not be the long-term solution the Mavericks need to thrive. It doesn’t hurt to pick up the phone if you’re the Orlando Magic.