New Orleans Pelicans: Julius Randle small-ball hasn’t worked

Expected to be a change of pace lineup, the deployment of Julius Randle at center in small-ball lineups has not worked for the New Orleans Pelicans so far.

Heading into the 2018-19 NBA season, many were excited about the potential combinations in the frontcourt for the New Orleans Pelicans. Having Anthony Davis, Nikola Mirotic and Julius Randle in the rotation sure makes for a lot of fun and dynamic pairings.

One key lineup structure that many (including myself) were looking forward to was the use of Randle at center, something that started to really happen during Randle’s last season with the Los Angeles Lakers. The thought was that as a result of Randle’s mobility and ability to hang with guards on the perimeter on switches, the Pelicans could create swarming lineups that thrive in transition and survive on defense when Davis is off the floor.

So far this season, that hasn’t been the case at all. Randle is playing slightly less minutes at center this season, according to Basketball Reference (45 percent of his minutes have come at the 5 compared to 49 percent last season) and those such lineups are being carved up. Per Cleaning the Glass (which excludes garbage time), lineups with Randle at center own a -12.3 net rating in 491 possessions.

This is mainly a result of the 123.5 defensive rating that such lineups own, which ranks in the 0th percentile across the league. These lineups have struggled in all four key areas of defense, as they rank in the 0th percentile in opponent effective field goal percentage (58.3 percent), the 16th percentile in opponent turnover percentage (12.9), the 18th percentile in opponent offensive rebound percentage (29.0) and the 12th percentile in opponent free throw rate (24.2).

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Pelican Debrief

Simply put, the majority of time that Randle is on the floor at center, the Pelicans don’t have the defensive talent around him on the perimeter and wing to make up for Randle’s lack of rim protection. The second most-used lineup that includes Randle at center surrounds him with Jrue Holiday, E’Twaun Moore, Wesley Johnson and Mirotic. That lineup actually defends at an above league-average rate, owning a defensive rating of 108.6, which would be good for the 12th-best defense in the league over the season.

All of the lineups with Randle at center include Mirotic alongside him, and many of the lineups have also included one of Darius Miller or Ian Clark, which isn’t exactly a recipe for defensive success. The Pelicans don’t have many quality options on the perimeter behind Holiday, making it hard to roll out the Randle-at-center lineups to begin with.

The addition of another defensive-minded wing would make the lineups more playable, as the perimeter defenders can help prevent players getting to the rim at will. Since there is no rim protection in such lineups, the value of having strong perimeter defenders increases.

The numbers paint the picture of how a lineup with Randle at center can thrive, as the lineup of Holiday, Moore, Solomon Hill, Mirotic and Randle owns a +56.3 net rating in a very small sample size (16 possessions). That lineup boasts several quality defenders on the wing which helps mitigate the lack of rim protection.

It will be interesting to see how these lineups with Randle at center fare moving forward. As a result of limited options at the 5 behind Davis and Randle (Cheick Diallo fouls a lot), the Pelicans will have to continue playing an undersized lineup with bench units. Perhaps the solution is the addition of another strong defender on the wing through a trade or buyout, which should be a good enough stopgap during the regular season.

The Pelicans have been through several injuries this season as they continue to find their footing. One key aspect of their season has been the struggles of these undersized lineups with Julius Randle. A solution doesn’t appear to already be on the roster, so it’s likely it will take more time to resolve the defensive struggles of these lineups.