New Orleans Pelicans: Checking in on Anthony Davis’ MVP chances

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK - NOVEMBER 5: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans is introduced prior to a game against the Oklahoma City Thunder on November 5, 2018 at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images)
OKLAHOMA CITY, OK - NOVEMBER 5: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans is introduced prior to a game against the Oklahoma City Thunder on November 5, 2018 at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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With roughly a quarter of the season in the rear view mirror, New Orleans Pelicans big man Anthony Davis’ MVP chances might not be looking quite as hopeful.

Heading into the 2018-19 NBA season, New Orleans Pelicans star Anthony Davis was discussed as a frontrunner and likely favorite to claim the Most Valuable Player award. Davis had the second-best betting odds, only slightly behind four-time MVP LeBron James, according to Odds Shark.

Finishing third in voting last season, and fifth in 2014-15, the Brow is not new to the MVP conversation, but has yet to claim the award for himself.

The loss of DeMarcus Cousins on the New Orleans Pelicans’ roster, as well as the inclusion of complementary pieces, such as Elfrid Payton and Julius Randle, lent possibility that this could be the year the stars aligned for Davis’ dreams of winning the MVP. Now that the Pelicans have logged 21 games on the season, it is time to start looking at where he sits in the MVP race.

Big numbers

So far this season, Anthony Davis has been putting up 27 points, 12.8 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 2.7 blocks and 1.6 steals per game. These are very consistent with his top-three MVP voting numbers last year.

Though his shooting efficiency has dipped slightly, he is still shooting a respectable 33.3 percent from 3 and 48.6 percent overall. Out of all players with at least 15 shot attempts per game, Davis sits among the top 10 in field goal percentage.

Much of the necessary campaigning for the MVP is in putting up great numbers all season, but it is also important to have statement games. Anthony Davis has scored 40 twice already, including a 43-point, 17-rebound showing in a win over the New York Knicks.

Davis also put on a monster performance against the Toronto Raptors earlier this month to snap their six-game win streak, putting up 25 points and 20 boards. He currently is 10th in the league in double-doubles, logging 13 in his 17 played games.

The only problem for Anthony Davis is he isn’t alone in posting dominant numbers. Players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, and Joel Embiid are all tallying similar, or slightly better stats across the board.

Team struggles

With a 10-11 record and the Pelicans sitting in 11th place in the traffic jam that is the Western Conference, the team’s lack of success isn’t doing Davis’ MVP odds any favors. Though four of the losses have come with AD being sidelined, the team is still 10-7 when he takes the court.

One note that could help his chances at the award is that the team is 9-3 when A.D. scores 20 or more points. It is obvious, even to Davis himself, that the Pelicans’ chances to win typically begin and end with him. He is fourth in the league in Real-Plus/Minus, and his on/off numbers show how irreplaceable his impact for New Orleans, as their offensive rating is 10.2 points better and defensive rating 10.7 points better when he is playing.

His influence on his team’s success could help his MVP case, as it is unmistakable that he is the driving force behind the team and holds a greater on/off impact than much of his competition. However, team wins have always been a factor in MVP voting. With Russell Westbrook’s triple-double season being the only exception, 17 of the last 18 MVP awards have gone to a player whose team had at least a .650 record and top-two playoff seed.

The Pelicans will have to pick up the pace if Davis is to add the award to his mantle, especially considering the records of the other MVP candidates’ teams. The Toronto Raptors, Golden State Warriors and Milwaukee Bucks are all currently fixed at the top of their conferences. If they finish with noticeably more wins than New Orleans, a slight advantage in personal numbers will be muted.

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The Most Valuable Player award isn’t out of reach for Anthony Davis by any means. With the competition only getting stronger, he and the Pelicans will have to make sure he doesn’t get left in the dust as the race continues down the stretch of the season.