Boston Celtics: How to save the season

The Boston Celtics started the season as the favorites to win the Eastern Conference. After a disappointing 11-10 start, many fans have hit the panic button. The Celtics need to make moves to save their season.

The Boston Celtics are in a position that few, if any, predicted they would be in at the beginning the season. In fact, they opened the season in the top two of pretty much every power ranking available on the worldwide web.

It’s no wonder expectations were so lofty, after a playoff run in which an injured Celtics roster constantly exceeded expectations without two of their All-Stars in Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. The emergences of Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Terry Rozier in that playoff run further bolstered an already loaded roster. Even LeBron James vacated the East, and seemingly blew open a path for Boston to make the Finals.

Yet 21 games into the season, the Celtics just one game above .500 and have lost eight of their last 13. With the 4-15 Cleveland Cavaliers on deck, and a stretch of games in which the Celtics will play seven straight without facing an opponent above .500, it’s time to save the season. This is a blueprint for how.

Trade Terry Rozier

Much has been said about the Celtics needing to make a trade. No, there won’t be a trade for Anthony Davis this season, but that doesn’t mean the Celtics can’t make a move. Frankly, Terry Rozier should be the guy on the block.

Trading Rozier isn’t so much about return as it is getting rid of a player who has been a plague on the second unit this season. A season ago, Rozier made a name for himself filling in for Kyrie, putting up 15.6 points and 5.1 assists in 33.3 minutes per game on .381/.389/.750 shooting splits as a starter in Kyrie’s place.

Rozier’s play got even better in the playoffs, as he averaged 16.5 points and 5.7 assists in 36.6 minutes per game on .406/.347/.821 shooting. His emergence was so striking, some pundits even wondered if the Celtics should trade Kyrie in the offseason.

Thankfully, the Celtics retained their star point guard, and Rozier was relegated to a bench role. He hasn’t exactly been thriving in the Celtics second unit, as he’s posting the worst shooting splits in his career as a sixth man at .370/.351/.708, while also taking more shots than he ever has off the bench. At times it’s felt like Rozier’s shot selection has damaged the ability for other rotation players to find a rhythm on offense.

More telling than just his shot selection and shooting, the entire team falters on offense when Rozier is on the court. Per NBA.com, the Celtics post an offensive rating of just 97.9 when he’s on the floor, which is good for the worst rating among regular players on the roster. Conversely, when Rozier is off the floor, Boston’ offensive rating rises 108.4, which is a team high.

In fact, the only team offensive rating in the same stratosphere as when Rozier is off the floor is the Celtics’ 107.9 rating when Kyrie is on the floor.

Trading Scary Terry is not a question of adding a big man or getting back a pick. It’s a question of putting Rozier and the Celtics both in the best position to succeed. It’s becoming more clear by the day that his emergence as a starter a season ago has damaged his skill-set as a rotational player, and the Celtics should allow him to become a starter elsewhere.

Make open shots

This sounds silly, because it’s so obvious, but it has been the worst aspect of Boston’s offense this season. The Celtics, and in particular Jayson Tatum, have come under fire for a penchant of taking long 2-point shots and not attacking the rim enough. It’s true the Celtics have the second-fewest points in the paint in the league, but it’s hard to fault them for attempting open shots.

The Celtics have an effective field goal percentage of just 56 percent on “wide open” shots, per NBA.com, good for 14th in the league. The flip side is that they have the second-most “wide open” attempts at 24.0 per game. They also lead the league in “open” attempts, while converting only 40.5 percent of those attempts, good for 27th in the association.

Outside of Marcus Morris and Kyrie Irving, who have an effective field goal percentage of 74.5 percent and 73.0 percent on “wide open” attempts, respectively, the Celtics have been remarkably inefficient on these attempts. Only four players have a 3-point percentage over 40 percent on “wide open” attempts, despite Boston boasting a starting lineup of five players who shot 40 percent from 3-point land in their previous full seasons.

The law of averages would seem to dictate that at some point, the Celtics’ shots will start falling. However, 21 games is a pretty decent sample size, and it’s shocking that they have only three players on the roster posting percentages above 40 on 3-point attempts.

This is why Boston’s offense has been so frustrating this season. They lead the league in shot quality, but rank in the bottom-five in offensive efficiency. They rank eighth in assist percentage, but have had many more assist opportunities fall to the wayside as they shoot just 44.9 percent on catch-and-shoot opportunities. Simply put, if the Celtics were hitting open shots, they could reasonably be in the range of the Toronto Raptors’ win total atop the Eastern Conference.

It’s important to note the Celtics, and head coach Brad Stevens, made improvements in offensive efficiency in their latest effort against the New Orleans Pelicans. Boston posted an offensive rating of 125.3 in that contest on the back of a very high quality 3-point shooting night. The team’s latest performance leads directly into the next point.

Play Jaylen Brown off the bench

Jaylen Brown has gotten off to the most disappointing start of any Celtic yet this season, with the notable exception of Terry Rozier. The team’s net rating with Brown on the floor checks in at -2.3, the worst net rating of any starter or regular player on the team. Like Rozier, the net rating when Brown is on the bench rises to a team-high +7.3.

Interestingly, the Celtics’ most efficient offensive performance of the season came against the Pelicans in a game in which Brown sat out due to injury. The open spot in the lineup was filled by Marcus Smart, who Kyrie praised for improving the team’s mentality on both sides of the floor.

A large part of the reason has been Brown’s propensity to shoot the basketball nearly every time he touches it. He has the second-lowest assist percentage of any player on the roster (not just regular rotation) while posting the third-highest shot attempts.

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The shot attempt-to-pass ratio wouldn’t be so disturbing if Brown were playing effectively as a catch-and-shoot player, a la Klay Thompson. However, Brown is taking the third-most shots on the team despite just a 39.8 percent mark from the field. Worse yet, he’s launching the fourth-most 3-pointers while hitting on only 25 percent of those opportunities.

Again, these problems would be excusable if Brown were performing in other areas, but unfortunately, he’s off to a poor start everywhere. He has often appeared lost, or at the very least extremely beatable, on the defensive side of the floor, and is posting a career worst -4.0 box plus/minus as a starter.

Brad Stevens has made waves in his lineup by moving Gordon Hayward into the second unit, but it may be time to put Brown on the bench as well. In fact, the Celtics have a wing player in Semi Ojeleye who has displayed extreme versatility and poise in limited minutes.

Not only has Ojeleye displayed the ability to guard some of the best players in the league, as he played respectable defense on Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James during last year’s playoffs, but he also has positive effects on the team when on the floor.

The Celtics’ 3-point percentage is at its highest when Ojeleye is in the game. Likewise, in 141 minutes, Boston’s net rating rises from -0.2 to +12.4 when he gets on the parquet. When Brown is at his best, he’s a better option than Ojeleye, but at the moment there aren’t really worse options than Brown.

Stevens opted to go with an Irving-Smart-Tatum-Morris-Al Horford starting five in New Orleans, and it might not be a bad idea to stick with it. In 52 minutes this season, that lineup is posting an offensive rating of 125.7 on an effective field goal percentage of 60.1. It is the most efficient lineup the Celtics have fielded for at least 30 minutes this season.

Not only is their latest starting five displaying efficiency offensively, but they are also posting a second-best 96.6 defensive rating, which is good for the best net rating of any lineup Boston has fielded regularly this season.

The Celtics have a long way to go, and there are still 61 games left to play. However, 21 games is a reasonable sample size, and 11-10 is certainly not where this team expected or wanted to be.

Brad Stevens displayed a willingness to make adjustments against the Pelicans. He would be wise to continue to do so. With a slate of less competitive opponents coming up, there is no better time than now to experiment.