Milwaukee Bucks: 3 biggest trap games left in 2018
1. Dec. 25 — Milwaukee Bucks @ New York Knicks
Why the Bucks might not take the Knicks seriously:
The Bucks have won their last six games against the Knicks (with an average victory of 9.8 points), and 12 of the last 15 games dating back to the 2014-15 season. The Knicks have struggled greatly this season and are currently on a six-game losing streak, which is already their second five-plus losing streak of the season.
Strength of opponent: The 13th-place New York Knicks are 4-13
Days rest: Milwaukee — 2, New York — 3
Location of game: New York
Travel:
- The Bucks will travel 1100 miles from Miami to New York City
- The Knicks will travel 0 miles to New York City
(Bonus) Distractions: Christmas Day Game in New York City with an 12:00 p.m. ET tipoff
Context and why the Knicks have a chance:
The Milwaukee Bucks will be in New York City playing a Christmas Day marquee game. The Christmas games are a huge stage most players have not experienced in the regular season. Brook Lopez is the only Bucks starter who has started a Christmas Day game, and that was back in 2012. As a team, the Bucks have not had a Christmas game since 1977, whereas this will be the Knicks’ third straight Christmas with a home game.
Not only have the Knicks’ past two Christmas games been at Madison Square Garden (also with the 12:00 p.m. ET start time), but they have been against other elite Eastern Conference opponents — the Boston Celtics in 2016 (who went on to make the Eastern Conference Finals) and the Philadelphia 76ers in 2017 (who advanced to the Eastern Conference semifinals).
The Knicks failed to make the playoffs both of these years, but against Boston, it was a tied game in the fourth quarter with just over a minute left in regulation. Against Philly last year, the Knicks tied the game with less than six minutes left in the fourth quarter.
The Christmas Day games on the big stage have a different energy to them, and the noon start time can be discombobulating for both teams. This can lead to a less predictable outcome. Higher variance and unpredictability always favors the underdogs, so that could mean an unexpected result for this game (like a New York victory).
Not only do the Knicks benefit by having the additional day of rest and significantly less travel to the game, the Bucks will embark on a tough road trip that finishes against New York.
Leading to the game, the Bucks will play four games. They will travel from Detroit to Milwaukee (250 miles) to Boston (850 miles) to Miami (1250 miles) to New York City (1,100 miles). Cumulatively this totals to 3,450 miles in just eight days!
Alternatively, the Knicks will play just three games over this span. They will travel from New York City to Philadelphia and back. This is just an 160-mile round trip, meaning the difference in travel distance for Milwaukee is over 20-fold that of New York.
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The Knicks’ ability to keep these games close despite being the less talented team is valuable for them as an underdog. The added comfort of being at home in MSG and familiar with all the lights on them for a marquee game could give them an extra advantage against the Bucks to keep the margin small. This, compounded with all their other inherent travel and rest benefits might just provide the edge needed to pull out a win against the Bucks in a close contest.