Milwaukee Bucks: Dominating with and without Giannis Antetokounmpo

The Milwaukee Bucks are winning with Giannis Antetokounmpo on the court and on the bench, thanks to elite on/off numbers and efficient production from teammates.

The Milwaukee Bucks have been perhaps the most surprising team early in the 2018-19 season. They have gotten off to one of the best records in the league, earning the second overall spot in this week’s power rankings behind only the Golden State Warriors, and have established themselves as a legitimate contender in the wide open Eastern Conference. They stand at 8-1 and have the early MVP frontrunner, Giannis Antetokounmpo, leading them.

Antetokounmpo is clearly the most important reason for their success. He already proved he was a two-way superstar last season, and has only stepped up his game to another level this year. The Milwaukee Bucks’ inconsistency and shortcomings the past several seasons have never been because of Antetokounmpo, but rather the rest of the Milwaukee squad.

Despite having a top-10 player the past couple seasons, the Bucks have failed to achieve a 50-win season (or even just 45), home-court advantage or a playoff series win. Every other team with a player of his caliber has achieved much more than Milwaukee.

Ultimately, the lack of success of the Bucks has come down to their inability to compete at a high level during times when Antetokounmpo is off the court. Looking at the on/off numbers, the Bucks are an ultra-elite team with him on the court, as their net rating is an astounding +19.6.

This is equivalent to about a 93 percent winning percentage, per the pythagorean approximation. The +19.6 is even more incredible (and perhaps unsustainable) when you consider that last season the net rating was just +3.1, which is about a 60 percent winning percentage.

But what is just as important as the Bucks’ production with Antetokounmpo on the court is their play without him on the court. While they are certainly better both offensively and defensively while he plays, for the first time since 2015 they have a positive net rating with Antetokounmpo on the bench. And at +7.6, it is a dominant differential too. For comparison, +7.6 would have ranked third overall last season.

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While the Bucks might not be able to maintain this level of production, nothing seems like too much of an anomaly. Tony Snell and Khris Middleton‘s 3-point percentages will likely drop significantly, which will not help the team, and Antetkounmpo’s rebounding rate might not be sustainable.

However, from an overall standpoint, this team is very cohesive and barring injury, should be poised to keep itself among the upper echelon of Eastern Conference teams. This newfound capability for the team to be able to stay successful during Antetkounmpo’s time on the bench is vital to them achieving their potential as a team.

Antetokounmpo sat out seven games last season, after playing 80-plus games the three seasons prior, and he has already missed a game this season. Sitting star players is becoming a more acceptable practice in the NBA with both short-term goals of injury prevention and distant future visions of teams hoping to prolong a player’s career. As a team vying to compete now, the Bucks are awarded an immense luxury if they are able to continue winning while periodically resting their franchise player.

The Bucks went a respectable 5-2 in the seven games Antetokounmpo missed last season, but without context, these numbers can be very misleading. While they did win five games, those wins came against the Phoenix Suns (twice), Chicago Bulls, New York Knicks and Orlando Magic — five tanking teams. A majority of those games occurred post All-Star break, when tanking was even more exaggerated among the bottom-dwelling teams.

The two losses, however, came against the Charlotte Hornets and Philadelphia 76ers, the only non-tanking teams Milwaukee faced without its All-Star. During the three previous seasons, the Bucks went 1-3 playing without Antetokounmpo, with the sole win coming against a weak Phoenix team, and the three losses came at the hands of playoff hopeful teams.

If the Bucks can continue winning without depending on Antetokounmpo, then it cements them as a fundamentally different team from years past, and could be just what they have needed to propel themselves past their plateau of mediocrity into relevancy as a genuine challenger for an NBA Finals berth.