New Orleans Pelicans: Evaluating Otto Porter Jr. as a trade target

With the Washington Wizards’ season quickly derailing, a possible odd man out like Otto Porter Jr. could be just the guy the New Orleans Pelicans are looking for.

The start of the 2018-19 season has not been kind to the Washington Wizards. Off to their worst start since Bradley Beal’s rookie year in 2012, they currently hang at the bottom of the Eastern Conference alongside the Cleveland Cavaliers, both holding a 1-6 record following Washington’s loss to the Memphis Grizzlies Tuesday night.

The most troubling aspect for Washington is that there is no real reason to have expected this shaky beginning. While their main offseason acquisition, Dwight Howard, has been absent to date, they haven’t had any other major health issues with the roster or change-up with the coaching staff.

Dysfunction isn’t  unfamiliar territory for the Wizards by any stretch of the imagination, but an extreme case of it seems to be the only prognosis for what’s keeping them from playing winning basketball.

That is the only way one could explain instances like Washington’s two stars, John Wall and Bradley Beal, calling out unnamed teammates for having their own agendas, or head coach Scott Brooks openly stating frustration with Otto Porter Jr.’s recent play.

Porter is playing fewer minutes than in the past two seasons, including three games so far where he has logged under 30 minutes of action on the court with Brooks favoring the young Kelly Oubre Jr. in his place. With the current trajectory for the Wizards, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them start hitting the self-destruct button, or at the very least look to make a big move.

If that’s the case, Otto Porter Jr. seems to be the most likely candidate to be shipped out.

Enter the New Orleans Pelicans.

Yes, the New Orleans Pelicans who are riding a four-game losing skid after starting the season with four straight wins. To be fair, MVP candidate, Anthony Davis, has missed three of those games with an elbow injury, and the only loss he played was their matchup against the mighty Golden State Warriors.

Despite reliable scoring from Nikola Mirotic, Jrue Holiday and Julius Randle, the Pels have lacked the firepower to keep up with their opponents in their three losses without AD, finishing with an average offensive rating differential of -12.2.

This is thematic for New Orleans, which is shooting a league-average 36 percent from 3-point range (shooting under 30 percent in two of the three Davis-less losses) while giving up a third-worst 39.3 percent shooting from deep.

The Pelicans do an excellent job shooting overall, ranking sixth-best in the league with a 48.1 percentage on field goals, but they also allow 48.2 percent shooting, fifth-worst in the NBA. Though their roster as presently constructed may not have a high ceiling for team defense, which has been the case for New Orleans over the last few years as a product of how the team plays, adding someone like Otto Porter Jr. could help.

Starting Porter at the small forward position in place of E’Twaun Moore adds an immediate four inches of height and three and a half inches of wingspan. The impact of this can be seen in the undersized Moore’s opponent field goal percentage of 53.2 percent compared to Porter’s 45.7.

Per 100 possessions, Porter is good for one more steal, almost an extra half of a block and five extra defensive rebounds, as well with almost one less turnover and two less personal fouls. Defensive box plus-minus works in favor of Porter, as well, with a 2.5 differential over Moore. The eye test is consistent with the numbers — Porter is the superior defensive option.

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With E’Twaun posting better scoring numbers on the season, the Pelicans would be banking on the possibility that Otto Porter Jr.’s regression this season is a product of his environment. Scoring more inefficiently than any other year except his rookie season, Porter does not look himself on the offensive side of the ball.

A career 40 percent shooter from the 3-point line, he has struggled so far in this season to hit from deep, hitting 33 percent or better in only two games so far this season. Those numbers could, however, be influenced by the amount of confidence and involvement he receives from his teammates on the court.

Compared to Moore, Porter sees just under 12 fewer passes come his way per game. He ranks seventh on his own squad, behind names like Austin Rivers and Jeff Green. If Porter were put in a situation where the ball was coming his way more and the locker room didn’t exist in a constant uproar, it wouldn’t be crazy to assume that his play would mirror numbers we saw him post over the last two years. The mental strain of toxicity and chemistry issues cannot be ignored as potential influences on a player’s game.

The only concern for New Orleans would be how to make this trade appealing to Washington without gutting integral pieces form their roster. With Otto Porter Jr.’s contract sitting at just over $26 million for this season, it’d take a package of players like Moore, Solomon Hill and Wesley Johnson just to make this trade work financially. Even though added wing depth might and the ability to feature Oubre in more minutes would be enticing for the Wizards, they would most certainly seek draft compensation in the form of at least one first-rounder.

If Washington is willing to pull the trigger, the Pelicans would have to at least give it consideration. While retaining role players like Randle and Mirotic is crucial, now is not the time to be stingy with picks.

As rumors continue to circulate around Anthony Davis’ future with the franchise, it is more important than ever to prove to him that there is a commitment to winning and an unwavering desire to contend. If the devil’s advocate is right, and the end of the Brow’s relationship with New Orleans is nearing, replacing any outgoing picks will prove to be a much less difficult task.