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Miami Heat: Why November will be extremely important

By Sam DiGiovanni

MIAMI, FL - OCTOBER 08: Dwyane Wade #3 of the Miami Heat celebrates with teammates against the Orlando Magic during the first half at American Airlines Arena on October 8, 2018 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FL - OCTOBER 08: Dwyane Wade #3 of the Miami Heat celebrates with teammates against the Orlando Magic during the first half at American Airlines Arena on October 8, 2018 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /
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The Miami Heat have shown tremendous promise this season. They will need to make the most of their November schedule to build on last year’s success.

Despite several injuries to key players, the Miami Heat have started the 2018-19 season strong. They currently hold a 3-2 record, losing only to the Orlando Magic by three points and the Charlotte Hornets by one point. Their three victories are a one-point win over the Washington Wizards, a blowout win over the New York Knicks, a nine-point victory over the Portland Trail Blazers.

The marquee players from last year, namely Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside, have kept up their level of play; some have even stepped up, such as Josh Richardson, who is currently averaging career highs in points, rebounds, and assists.

The biggest surprises has been Rodney McGruder, who’s shooting a scorching 54.2 percent from 3 and is averaging 16.0 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game while starting every single one so far. He’ll be a key player for Miami throughout the season if he can keep posting numbers like those.

https://twitter.com/MiamiHEAT/status/1053284641963208704

So far, the Heat have played well without James Johnson (sports hernia surgery), Justise Winslow (hamstring soreness, missing all but one game), Wayne Ellington (ankle soreness), and Dion Waiters (ankle surgery), all guys who played at least 24 minutes per game last season.

Adding to this, the Heat were blessed with the fourth-easiest record in the league. They play only 38 games against teams that recorded a record of .500 or better in 2017-18. For reference, the Wizards, who have the toughest schedule, play 45 games against such teams. Of all the months in the regular season, November will be the one of the most important ones for the Heat.

Schedule (with teams over .500 in 2017-18 in bold):

  • Nov. 3 @ Atlanta Hawks
  • Nov. 5 @ Detroit Pistons
  • Nov. 7 vs. San Antonio Spurs
  • Nov. 9 vs. Indiana Pacers
  • Nov. 10 vs. Washington Wizards
  • Nov. 12 vs. Philadelphia 76ers
  • Nov. 14 @ Brooklyn Nets
  • Nov. 16 @ Indiana Pacers
  • Nov. 18 vs. Los Angeles Lakers
  • Nov. 20 vs. Brooklyn Nets
  • Nov. 23 @ Chicago Bulls
  • Nov. 25 @ Toronto Raptors
  • Nov. 27 vs. Atlanta Hawks
  • Nov. 30 vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Although the Heat’s overall schedule is fairly weak, they face a pretty tough schedule in November. Out of the 14 games, seven teams made the playoffs last year. They also face two teams that will be in playoff contention for their respective conferences in the Lakers and Pistons.

There are two silver linings to this. One is they only have one back-to-back series; both games are at home against the Pacers on Nov. 9 and Wizards on Nov. 10. The other is that they face most of the strongest teams at home.

While a four-game stretch playing the Spurs, Pacers, Wizards, and 76ers is tough, it will take place in American Airlines Arena. This setup is perfect as the Heat will get a look at four playoff-caliber teams (three of which are in their conference) without having to leave Miami. They will also face the Lakers and Pelicans in Miami, which means six of the nine toughest games are at home.

The tough schedule will show the Heat’s true colors. Many projected them to be a fringe playoff team with no real possibility of winning the Eastern Conference, let alone the NBA Finals. Miami will have the shot to show it can compete with some of the league’s best teams. Their performance will be indicative of how far this core of players can go.

But wait! There’s more good news: All the currently injured Heat players will most likely be back before November even starts.

So far, the Heat have been running a rotation of just nine players. McGruder, Dragic, Whiteside and Richardson have been the consistent starters, with Derrick Jones Jr. starting the first three games and Kelly Olynyk starting the last two. Dwyane Wade, Tyler Johnson and Bam Adebayo have been the other bench contributors. Waiters, Ellington, and James Johnson all have yet to make their 2018-19 season debut.

Winslow made his season debut against the Trail Blazers on Saturday, notching 10 points, five rebounds and one assist in 19 minutes. Ellington was ready to play Saturday as well, although he did not see any action.

Waiters’ return is less predictable, although he aimed to comeback last Wednesday against New York, meaning he should be back before November. Johnson continues to be evaluated each game, meaning he could be back soon as well. If these guys return within the next couple of games, it will give them time to get their fresh legs under them before they start the harder parts of their November schedule.

Seeing the full team in action will also help head coach Erik Spoelstra and team president Pat Riley  spot players that deserve to play more. With the glut of wings on this team, some should be seen as expandable to bring in more high-level talent.

Next. Week 3 NBA Power Rankings. dark

The season is long, but the early months building up to the new year will be important in determining which playoff seed Miami gets (if at all). The way the Heat play in November will be telling on what this club can achieve. If they can hold their own with teams like the Raptors and 76ers and defeat the other competitive teams, it will prove that they are capable of at least making the playoffs.

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