Hawks-Mavs won’t tell us who won the Luka Doncic-Trae Young trade

Wednesday’s game between the Atlanta Hawks and Dallas Mavericks won’t give us any indication as to whether Trae Young or Luka Doncic is the better prospect.

Before we begin, here are two stat lines:

• 18.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.3 APG, .435/.318/.615 shooting splits, 11.3 PER, -0.056 WS/48 mins
• 23.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 8.3 APG, .455/.393/.800 shooting splits, 19.1 PER, .137 WS/48 mins

It would probably surprise you to know that the second stat line belongs to Atlanta Hawks rookie point guard Trae Young, while the first reflects Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic‘s first three NBA games.

Thanks to a trade that allowed the Hawks and Mavs to swap draft rights for them last June, Doncic and Young will always be intertwined. After all, there were plenty of people that believed (and still believe) that the Hawks made a mistake in trading away the more complete prospect for a someone who seemed like a lesser facsimile of Stephen Curry.

Thus far both players have been fun to watch, as each rookie has shown flashes of what made them so enticing to their respective teams. One night, Young obliterates what’s left of the Cleveland Cavaliers. Another night, Doncic is dueling with a former league MVP in Minnesota.

But if you want to know which one has the higher ceiling, you won’t get that answer anytime soon, and you certainly won’t get it following tonight’s Hawks-Mavs game.

Of course, it’s easy to point at Dallas’ (2-1) and Atlanta’s (1-2) records as an early indicator of Doncic and Young’s distinct impacts for their teams (never mind the fact that Dallas and Atlanta have the same Pythagorean record).

You could even look at their on/off numbers to help make up your mind. As of Oct. 24, Dallas’ net rating jumps from -1.9 to -2.4 when Doncic is off the floor. Atlanta’s net rating, however, improves when Young sits, and the degree which it improves is wide, as it jumps from -5.5 to +4.0.

Box plus/minus (BPM)? It favors Young. Value over Replacement Player (VORP)? It also favors Young. However, Doncic’s and Young’s numbers in both of those categories start with a minus sign, so we can probably hold off on handing either one the Maurice Podoloff Trophy.

The truth is, neither the Hawks nor the Mavs are particularly good yet, especially the Hawks, hence why both of them picked so high in the draft. No matter how many big numbers Doncic or Young put up right now, they aren’t going to lead either of these clubs back to the playoffs this year. Both men are still learning how to play NBA defense and they are going to go through some struggles as the season progresses.

Basically, it’s too small of a sample size to judge either player just yet. Young will have to show that he can deliver big games against teams that aren’t hollow husks that LeBron James left behind in Cleveland. Doncic will have to show that he can do cool stuff like this against teams that haven’t taken Jabari Parker‘s lax approach to defense.

Neither rookie will get that challenge Wednesday night when the 28th-ranked Dallas defense faces the 22nd-ranked Atlanta D (per 100 possessions).

This game won’t tell us if the Hawks made a mistake gambling in the minuscule chance that Young will be the next Steph Curry. It won’t tell us if the 19-year-old that dominated EuroLeague was all hype.

If anything, Wednesday night’s game will show that these teams made the right move for their future. If Doncic and Young continue to put up the numbers that they have so far, then that future is very bright.