1. If Holiday or Davis get hurt, it’s over
While most teams see huge dips when their stars sit, the Pelicans are more reliant on theirs, Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday, than a healthy playoff-caliber team should be.
The Pelicans’ net rating without AD on the floor was a -5.1, and without Holiday their net rating was a -7.9 (!!!). Bench units were forced to tread water whenever either Davis or Holiday sat.
While the Trail Blazers can attest firsthand to how devastating the 1-2 combo of Davis and Holiday can be …
… that requires both Davis and Holiday to stay on the court. Holiday did play in 81 games last year, but he has missed 15 or more games in four of the last five seasons.
Anthony Davis has had his share of injuries too, and last year he was fortunate enough to avoid a serious injury despite several scares.
If this happens …
… the Pelicans are done.
Evening missing Davis or Holiday for a month (about 15 games) would likely catch up to them in the crowded West.
It’s true that most teams would be in trouble if one of their two best players got hurt, but the Pelicans’ depth is especially shaky, as their roster is largely complementary players who offer little untapped upside. Their superstars’ injury histories should make any Pelicans fan uncomfortable too.
The New Orleans Pelicans need a lot of things to go right for them in 2018-19 to build on their success last season, but banking on luck instead of a proven track record is a surefire way to get your hopes up.