Orlando Magic: Could they be this year’s 2017-18 Indiana Pacers?

ESPN ranked the Orlando Magic 26th in their preseason power rankings, the same number the playoff-bound 2017-18 Indiana Pacers were last year. Could they replicate this success?

On July 23, ESPN gathered over 40 NBA reporters to put together early preseason power rankings. Consistency at the top and bottom is something that has been a constant in the NBA over the last few years. However, this offseason featured some shaking up.

No longer are the Los Angeles Lakers bottom tier, as they have Lebron James. No longer are the San Antonio Spurs a consensus top-10 team, as they lost Kawhi Leonard. Still, the incumbents like the Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors are still there, clamoring for a top spot within the rankings as they have been for the past few seasons.

This consistency also resides with the bottom of the rankings. You see familiar names such as the Brooklyn Nets, New York Knicks, Sacramento Kings, Phoenix Suns and of course, the Orlando Magic.

There’s nothing particularly surprising about seeing the squad from Orlando down near the bottom again. They haven’t been to the playoffs since 2012, haven’t had a 20-points-per-game scorer since Dwight Howard and haven’t won more than 35 games in a season since then either. They’ve had five coaches in six years, consistently rank in the bottom five in local and national TV ratings and haven’t had a true star since Howard’s departure. What’s going to change?

Belief in the Orlando Magic has come back to bite fans for most of the 2010s. Fans wanted to believe in Frank Vogel after the success he had with the Indiana Pacers. No dice. Fans wanted to believe in the team after winning 35 games in 2015-16 only to drop back down to 29 wins the next year.

People were excited to see what an ever-improving Aaron Gordon could do alongside new additions Terrence Ross, Jonathon Simmons and rookie Jonathan Isaac last season, only for the latter three players to miss a combined 126 games. They have given their fans a lot to be desired in this decade and the Magic, time and again, have failed to deliver.

Being ranked 26th in the league coming into the 2018-19 season shouldn’t surprise anyone. However, could the Magic shock the NBA world and become a playoff team this season? Could they be this year’s 2017-18 Indiana Pacers, who had low expectations coming into last season but made the Eastern Conference playoffs as a 5-seed? The answer isn’t as cut and dry as one would think.

Let’s look at the Indiana Pacers’ starting lineup along with their 2016-17 stats:

• Darren Collison: 13.2 PPG, 4.6 APG and 2.2 RPG
• Victor Oladipo: 15.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG and 2.6 APG
• Bojan Bogdanovic: 12.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG and 0.7 APG
• Thaddeus Young: 11.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG and 1.6 APG
• Myles Turner: 14.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG and 2.1 BPG

Coming into last season, this was not an esteemed bunch. Oladipo was coming off an inconsistent, overshadowed year with the Oklahoma City Thunder, Collison was stagnating in Sacramento, Young had his worst year since his rookie season and Bogdanovic was average. The most exciting aspect of their roster was the continued development of Myles Turner, as he was the most exciting young player on the roster.

The Pacers had low expectations and weren’t expected to make any noise, even in a weak Eastern Conference. For all intents and purposes, they looked primed for a rebuild after the departure of Paul George via trade with the Thunder for Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis.

Well, it didn’t exactly happen that way. Oladipo became one of the best shooting guards in the league, Collison led the league in 3-point percentage, Bogdanovic had a career scoring year, Turner added a solid 3-point shot to his arsenal and bench guys like Lance Stephenson, Sabonis and Cory Joseph stepped up. This led to an epic seven-game series against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers that almost dethroned the King of the Eastern Conference in the first round. They also finished eighth in defensive rating and 12th in offensive rating for the whole season.

What’s another team in the same conference that seems primed for a rebuild but has: a young star, multiple scoring veterans with something to prove, an unheralded veteran point guard, a rapidly developing young seven-footer, another young seven-foot center, a good defense and a solid bench? Yep, you guessed it, the Orlando Magic.

Let’s look at the projected starting lineup for Orlando in 2018-19 and their stats from 2017-18. Obviously, this is a volatile lineup to assess this early given Nikola Vucevic trade rumors and the potential for Jonathan Isaac, Jonathon Simmons or Mohamed Bamba to start, but nonetheless, indications point to these five:

• D.J. Augustin: 10.2 PPG, 3.8 APG and 2.1 RPG
• Evan Fournier: 17.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG and 2.9 APG
• Terrence Ross: 8.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG and 1.6 APG
• Aaron Gordon: 17.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG and 2.3 APG
• Nikola Vucevic: 16.5 PPG, 9.2 RPG and 1.1 BPG

See a trend here? Similar scoring, rebounding and assisting across the board maybe? Last season the starting five of the Magic averaged 70.8 points per game if you add up their totals. The Pacers starters only totaled 67.3 points per game in 2016-17. The Magic were also a better rebounding and assisting team based on averages. It’s crazy to think that a team that nearly made a run in the Eastern Conference playoffs last season, was worse statistically to start the year than this Magic team is.

To say the Magic had an unhealthy season last year would be the understatement of the year. Orlando’s players missed a combined 200 games last season. Every projected starter above, with the exception of Augustin, missed at least 24 games. Jonathon Simmons missed 13 games, and Jonathan Isaac missed basically the entire season as well. The entire team was injured all year. This will stunt any progress being made for a team no matter how talented.

The Magic have made their direction clear this offseason. They drafted long, raw prospects with high defensive upside and offensive potential down the line. They made no moves to get an established, scoring point guard and locked down the 23-year-old Gordon to a big contract, making youth and length the focal point of their franchise.

These moves on paper don’t scream ambition to make the playoffs. However, with the pieces currently in place, in a weak conference, the Magic could surprise many and make a playoff push.

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This playoff push is attainable if a few things go the Magic’s way. For starters, staying healthy is huge. Without good health for starters and second unit players, the season will once again be a wash. If guys like Isaac, Gordon, Bamba and Fournier can play a full season without being impeded by the injury bug, they will win games.

Secondly, a true breakout of Gordon and Isaac is going to be necessary for added wins. All signs, from NBA Summer League performances to offseason Instagram workouts, point to these two taking the next step in their respective games.

Gordon is now the No. 1 guy in Orlando and is getting paid as so. If he can take his game to another (maybe All-Star?) level, not only will that help the Magic win more games, but it will also attract other talent to the Sunshine State. If his jump shot and handle show added improvement and he maintains his solid defense, Gordon can fill the breakout Oladipo role and become the first All-Star the Magic have had since 2012.

Isaac showed tremendous two-way potential in the Summer League and could be an absolute beast this season. After a rookie season marred by lower body injuries, Isaac bulked up this summer, gained at least an inch in height and looks to have renewed focus. The media certainly thinks the he can become a focal point on this team moving forward and him having a breakout sophomore season will be imperative for his development. If he can develop a consistent jump shot as well as refine his interior scoring, the sky is the limit for the second-year player out of Florida State.

Another aspect of what could make this team successful is implementing rookie Mohamed Bamba into the lineup early and making sure his development isn’t stunted behind Vucevic or Khem Birch. The Magic are very high on Bamba, as they should be. If he can flash some of the inside-out offense he’s been working on all summer and continue his strong defense, he gives Orlando incredible versatility and a scary front line. His improvement throughout the year could win them games later in the season.

Lastly, this team needs to decide early on what its identity is. The Magic are obviously all in on the defensive side of the ball, but are they going to make the early season push for the playoffs or chill and wait another year? This needs to be situated early, and while the offseason moves they made seem to reside with the future, this team has the talent and coaching to win now. It’s obviously up to them to decide. Is this team going to resign early to get a good draft pick, or will it compete?

As mentioned before, belief in the Orlando Magic organization might be a fool’s errand. The 2010s have been a wash, as they have won zero playoff series all decade. However, this team as currently constructed looks to be the best chance the Magic have have at being successful in a long time.

Don’t be surprised if Orlando is hanging around late in the season in the Eastern Conference playoff race and don’t be shocked if it makes the cut. This team could be the NBA surprise of the year. There’s one every season, why not Orlando?